How many 914s remain in California?, The BAR database is illuminating... Options

[JeffBowlsby]

The California Bureau of Automotive Repair – our friendly emissions laws enforcers – have an online database which indicates past smog check history on vehicles within the state…searchable by VIN number or license plate number. In California, an emissions test and smog certificate are required to register a vehicle for use on public roads. Regarding 914s, the 1970-74 cars are now exempt from testing, and the ’75 cars will be exempt in January 2004.

I am interested in the 1974 LE cars in particular, so the database should be very current, they only became exempt in January 2003. I sequentially entered individual VINs covering the known VIN range of the LE cars – VINs 4742914000 through 4742917000 (about 2.7% of all 914s ever produced) and got back some interesting results. Any statisticians in the house? I realize this is a small sample compared to the total population of 914s produced, so what degree of error might there be with these extrapolations?

Of the 3000 VINs I checked, 262 (8.7%) had a smog cert history:

144 cars (4.8%) had valid smog certificates on December 31, 2002, the last date they were required to have smog certificates in this state. This means that only these 4.8% of the 914s produced within that VIN range, were legally allowed to operate on California roads on December 31, 2002.

An additional 118 cars (3.9%) had recent smog certificate history, where I define ‘recent’ to mean that these cars had previously received a smog cert or had attempted to get a smog cert and failed, at various dates between 1996 and 2002, but the smog cert had expired and was not in effect on December 31, 2002. These cars would not be allowed to operate on California roads on January 1, 2003 or after, without first getting new registration, but as of that date they became exempt from emissions testing, so registration for these cars would now be possible if they were still roadworthy. The BAR online records go back as far as August 1996, which includes the last seven years history.

The database also lists the location where the last emissions test occurred. Surprisingly (or maybe not), the surviving 914s within this VIN range are about evenly distributed between Northern and Southern California based on the BAR records. 120 cars (46%) had smog cert history listed from Northern California cities, and 142 cars (54%) from Southern California cities.

Conclusions

If these percentages for California cars hold true for all 4 cylinder 914s made from 1970-76, using 115,000 total 914/4 cars produced, this smog certificate database suggests that on or about January 1, 2003:

1. 4.8% of all 914s made (~5,520 cars) may have been registered and operational in California on January 1, 2003. This would require them to be essentially in stock form, with working stock fuel injection and an engine in good enough condition to pass an emissions test.

2. Potentially as many as an additional 3.9% of all 914s made (another~4,485 cars) may also exist and become registered and operational in California, when all model years of the 914 cars become exempt from smog certificate requirements (January 1, 2005). These cars include all the 914s that had emissions testing history as far back as 1996 as potential candidates for registration now that they are smog-cert exempt.

3. So California itself may have between a minimum of about 6,000 to a maximum of 10,000 914s surviving, licensed, registered and on the road. And our goal for the June ’04 West Coast Classic is only 100 914s, where are all the other 914s hiding? Its probably reasonable to assume that the total number is more realistically around 7,000 or 8,000 surviving, drivable-condition cars statewide, the rest are basically parts cars. Note also that this data indicates that about half of all 914s in California are stock FI cars, which doesn’t make sense from personal experience. Stock FI cars are the exception, the majority of 914s we see have been modified in some way, making the modified cars technically unregisterable in California if they were ever to be inspected.

4. How many of these California cars ARE NOW on the LE Registry? There are 14 known LE cars located in California at present, but only 11 have any sort of smog cert history, so 3 of those 14 cars have fallen off the BAR database. I only know the VINs and last smog test location of about half of these LE cars, but have no current owner information on several of them. Can anyone run the VINS or license plates for me and get owner info? (legally?)

5. How many of these California cars within the known LE VIN range COULD POTENTIALLY BE on the LE Registry? There are 187 cars with smog cert history in California, within the VIN range of known LE cars, some of which may be LE cars. Note that there are many cars on the LE Registry that their current whereabouts are not known…there are most certainly more LE cars in California as well as in other states.

6. The data suggests that both NorCal and SoCal regions might have as many as 5,000 cars each, but remember that only about half of the surviving cars may be drivable.

The caveats

The 914/6 cars are not included in this study because they use a different VIN sequence and they have been smog cert exempt in California for many years.

This database of course can offer no insight to the number of 1974 (and earlier) model year cars that are track-only, registered non-op, cars shipped out of state or parts cars that have simply fallen out of the BAR database. So the 500 cars at Rich Bontempis house are not included in these ‘survivor’ numbers. They are donors. 8^)

Its possible that if a non-op car was in pretty good shape but couldn’t or didn’t pass a smog check before January 1, 2003, that they may have come alive again after the smog cert requirement was dropped and are now registered and back on the street.

I extrapolated these percentages on a limited sample of total VINs and applied them across all years 914s produced with the assumption that the percentage of surviving cars would be relatively consistent across all model years. That’s a big assumption. However there are not likely to be as many early (1970-72) or late (1975-76) cars around (because fewer were made than the 1973-74 cars). So the percentage of 73-74 cars surviving as reflected in the BAR data, may be somewhat greater than the overall percentage of all surviving 914 cars across all model years. This may tend to make the maximum number of 10,000 surviving 914s in California optimistic.

Obviously, not all of these cars are in California or even exist anymore…some have been shipped out of state, parts cars, ‘converted to off-road use only’, or otherwise destroyed…

To think about: So how do we define what a ‘surviving’ 914 is? Is a surviving 914 only a licensed, registered, drivable car? Is a tub roller or an incomplete parts car considered a surviving 914 in its current condition? How about a bunch of boxes of parts necessary to assemble a 914? Then of course there is Brads tube car…looks like a 914 but isn’t…let the philosophers speak up…

[fiid]

Hey,

Ought we build an automated tool that scrapes all the possible VIN numbers and sticks them in a database???

What are all the valid VINs?

l8r,

Fiid.

[JeffBowlsby]

I only have the 262 specific VINs which turned up during the 3000 VIN range search. The other VINS could be searched...but someone else will have to do it... (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

[redshift]

Jeff, you are a nut.

This is a compliment.


M

[PatW]

OT. I get a notice from the Cal, BAR every few years saying that I can scrap my 70 914 and get 500$. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/clap56.gif) I got sniffed as a gross polluter a few years ago. The BAR sent me a notice asking me to bring my car in for a Smog Test. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/icon8.gif) I never did..

[Tony]

Bring your car in and do what with it ?

[PatW]

Bring your car in and do what with it ?

Smog Test.

[JeffBowlsby]

Jeff, you are a nut.

Yeah, I know....Brad thinks I am anal too...but I dont really understand that term... (IMG:style_emoticons/default/unsure.gif)

[fiid]

I only have the 262 specific VINs which turned up during the 3000 VIN range search. The other VINS could be searched...but someone else will have to do it... (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

What I mean is - how do you decode a 914 VIN? How would I generate a valid one?

If it's like: YYYYWWXX (YEAR, WEEK, NUMBER) - then I can generate them by starting at 19700000 and incrementing through to 19765299 - right? So if I write a piece of code to do that, then punch that number into their website and record the result, then I would have a db that I can then make searchable (and we can mine it for info.)

Could be a fun project.

Fiid.

[davep]

Anal is when you get one LE and then want to get the remaining 999. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

DaveP

[Part Pricer]

I took a quick look at it. It would be easy enough to extract the data. But, what's the purpose?

[URY914]

The purpose is so Jeff can know EVERYTHING THERE IS TO KNOW about LE's.

Next he will being going to each state's DMV doing the same thing.

A man with a mission.

Paul

[street legal go-kart]

i have a 76 complete bone stock legally smogged teener on which everything works .
i also am a resident of cali .
what is the range of the vins# for the LE model ?
i have yet to see a stock 76 that ran and smogged in cali since i bought my car.

jt

[JeffBowlsby]

So if I write a piece of code to do that, then punch that number into their website and record the result,

The VINs gotta be added one at a time...

I had a friend (Miles Julihn) who had a nice 49 state 76 car...but he had to put a cat on it to sell it...so it would pass smog.

what is the range of the vins# for the LE model ?

4742914375 to 4742916598 so far...I have that memorized...maybe I am...anXX...oh and I only own 2 LE cars right now and one is FS!

Next he will being going to each state's DMV doing the same thing.

Cool Paul...hadn't thought of that one...yet... (IMG:style_emoticons/default/cool.gif)

[fiid]

4742914375 to 4742916598 so far...I have that memorized...maybe I am...anXX...oh and I only own 2 LE cars right now and one is FS!

Next he will being going to each state's DMV doing the same thing.

Cool Paul...hadn't thought of that one...yet...

If we write a piece of code to do this we could crawl all the state DMVs automatically.

Fiid.

[Boldylocks]

Sounds amazing and impossible. I've been here for 6 years...bought a 76 2.0Lin year 2 -Bonnano is now making it a great car...and have a 73 1.7 right now...

During the 4 years I owned the 76 I only had to smog it 2 times, so would the car have appeared in your search?? Once in 99 and once in 2001.

Also, as often as us Californians drive around and around, I admit I havent seen many 914's. There are a fair amount of cars in garages and driveways. One time in downtown San Diego I nearly cried as I walked by a lot that had at least 3 914's in need of a lot of attention. Then one time, at band camp...

Seems we should see more cars considering your conclusions but...I dont know. In Mira Mesa there are at least 5 cars for sure..I bump into the drivers every so often and ask them if they are members of 914world.com so perhaps they have joined. I dont know, I'm just enjoying rambling.. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/chairfall.gif)

[Bleyseng]

To think about: So how do we define what a ‘surviving’ 914 is? Is a surviving 914 only a licensed, registered, drivable car?

Yes, thats just what I think. I don't think a rusty tub sitting in someones front yard is a 914. Ya can't drive it!

Geoff

[ss6]

You guys are either math gods or internet gods, or both (only one of you I'm sure of). Sounds like the digital equivalent of "you can't turbo a 914" - "you can't hack all 50 DMV's". I imagine some 914 vendors would pay to see those cards. Hell, I bet some 911 vendors would pay big bucks to see those cards, especially if they're sorted by year and model... And what about Chevy's and Fords for chrissakes??? When's the IPO?

[GWN7]

Interesting data. I'll ask at the local DVM if they can search their data base for 914's. I know they are cross linked with other provinces, but not sure if they are crossed linked with all of them. They charge a fee to search a title for a specific car, so i'm not sure if they will to do a mass search by model (or if they can)

Only one of the five I own would show up in their (Canadian) data base. Another would show up in the Texas data (last reg. March 2002 and another in the California data (last reg. 1999) The other two unknown.

From a legal standpoint a 914 is still a 914 untill the vin tags/numbers are surrendered as a destroyed car. (made into a cube/cut up, ect)

[Mueller]

My evil step-mother-in-law works for AAA, think they have the ability to search the CA DMV records for 914's ????

I've personally cut-up/thrown away 3 complete 914's...we need a database for those that are forever lost (IMG:style_emoticons/default/sad.gif)