I hope gas prices drop before the WCC..., dang, it's going to be an expensive trip Options

[Mueller]

local prices here are averaging 2.43 to 2.63 for regular.....I'm hoping the Pilot/Loves gas stations are much cheaper in a week and a half (IMG:http://www.914world.com/bbs2/html/emoticons/wacko.gif)

I'm guessing I'll be lucky to get 15mpg in my truck if I tow the 914.....close to 900 miles round trip......ouch....

[Toast]

QUOTE (Sammy @ Apr 7 2005, 09:29 AM)

Gouging? No offense, but that is a term used by the uninformed. If I put a 914 part on e-bay, I want to get as much as possible for it, right? Say it's worth $10, but the bidders get carried away and the final bit is $20. Assuming i representyed the part correctly and did nothing to mislead the bidders, If i accept that bid and sell it for $20 am i gouging? According to your logic (for lack of a more politically correct term) I should tell the highest bidder that the item is only worth $10 and I cannot accept anything higher than $10.50. Maybe there should be a law that says it is illegal to sell parts for more than they are perceived to be worth. Maybe it should be illegal to sell something to the highest bidder. That only happens in economic systems run, controlled, or regulated by the government. It didn't work in the soviet union, it won't work here. Free market economics tell us that the price is set by the market. Here's a news flash, the oil companies, suppliers, and speculators will try to get a $zillion for every gallon and that is not wrong! That is what they are supposed to do. The consumer will always try to get a gallon for free. Again, that is the way it is supposed to be. Somewhere in the middle will be the actual selling price. The seller is motivated to sell. the buyer is motivated to buy. The price is determined by those motivations. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS GOUGING IN A MARKET LIKE THIS unless one party or the other artificially skews the supply or demand (see tree hugger regulations in previous post). If a refinery runs at 70% of capacity, it will run efficienty and run for extended periods between breakdowns. If it is run at maximum capacity for extended periods it will experience accelerated wear and deteriorated reliability. I know that to be fact from 24 years of personal experience. My job was to keep the refinery running and maximize the reliability of all the rotating equipment. My biggest enemy was running full throttle all the time, trying to squeaze just one more barrel through the units. I hated that because all the tracking I did confirmed that they refinery would actually run much better and longer at lower rates and unless the crack spread was outrageous the refinery would be more profitable in the long run at those lower rates. For example: a full refinery-wide shutdown will take at least 4 weeks, often much longer. the cost of maintenance during that period wil range from $20 million to $70 million. Upgrades or modifications for compliance will add to that number dramatically. Of course during that one to two months there will be no production so that lost revenue cost is staggering to a business that survives on pure volume. Much of the overhead expenses still occur during that period also. my point? if they run at 80% instead of a targetted 100% (which they can never achieve for sustained periods because of unexpected reliability problems) they would be able to extend the time between shutdowns by up to 25% and those shutdowns would be less costly which would more than make up for the lower production levels. Unfortunately that is no longer an option because there is no excess refining capacity in California anymore. They have to run at full throttle as much as possible or they would probably get thrown in jail. Imagine if you drive your 914 at 60 mph on the freeway for a long time. You will get decent mileage (efficiency) and you will probably not hurt the mechanical components, and you won't have to take it apart to fix it as often. Now you take that same car and run it at full throttle at top speed for as long as possible. Sure you'd get somewhere faster for a while, but how long will it last? Same thing goes for a refinery. heaters, pumps, compressors, exchangers, piping, catalyst, it all wears out and must be repaired or replaced periodically. the harder they push it the faster it wears out. Did you know that they have to schedule extended shutdowns for this maintenance way ahead of time and report it to the government officials? They try and go 4 to 5 years between these shutdowns on major units but that isn't always possible. that number used to be 3 years, they are pushing harder now and using up more of their safety factor. Sometimes they just don't last that long. If you lived next to a refinery, would you like it if they pushed it as hard as pssible for as long as possible knowing that the risk of explosion or release is exponential to these factors? They are also mandated to perform these shutdowns during the winter which of course is common sense anyway because that is when demand is usually at the lowest level. Problems occur if too many refineries are scheduled to be down at the same time, again because there just isn't enough reserves any more to carry the market past the dip in production. If a refinery has to shut down or reduce production due to unscheduled maintenance they have to file all kinds of reports and explanations, and various government departments and officials are like flies on shit, investigating to make sure the shutdown is legitimate. Guess what? they always are. There is no such thing as an uneccesary shutdown in the US to manipulate a market. It just doesn't happen except in the twisted minds of conspiracy theorists. Every year we hear about some policical publicity whore trying to get re-elected by getting the voters fired up. One favorite tactic is to claim that the oil companies are gouging and the dishonest or just plain stupid politician calls for a congressional hearing and investigation. I've been called to Sacramento to be grilled and accused before. Total BS is what it was. Everybody pointing fingers and ignoring reality just so they can get some votes. Sickening. Every time they have one of these hearings they find no wrong doing. They quietly drop the issue until the next election is getting close and then drag it all up again just for some headlines. The three worst offenders I know of are Burke, Villaragoza, and Feinstein. IMO they will say or do absolutely anything if they think it will help their careers and if they think they can get away with it. Scandal whores, all of em (IMO). BTW the previous poster hit the nail on the head: China. instead of being a smal time producer they are quicky becoming a big time consumer of oil. that is a major factor in the price of crude oil today. Now that post deserves it's place in the rant Hall of Fame (IMG:http://www.914world.com/bbs2/html/emoticons/wink.gif)

Go Off Sammy! (IMG:http://www.914world.com/bbs2/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif)