Original Cars:How many are still out there?, Where do you see the market in the future? Options

[914_7T3]

Didn't want to Hijack bbrocks thread on how certain mods may affect resale value, but it really got me thinking about future values on these cars and where the market may be heading.

http://914world.com/bbs2/index.php?showtopic=314860

I love that everyone has a different vision for their car and can go their own way. Some members such as Arne & myself are currently working on driver restos and others such as Larmo among others are deep into some serious 6 builds.

After having been to about a 1/2 dozen events, there is definitely serious interest in the 914 and this will bring prices up for good clean original cars. Not sure when or to what degree, but I have spoken with several PCar Collectors, expressing interest in "seriously getting one, but they're hard to find"

Good clean cars and NOS parts will become scarce and drive prices up.

What are your thoughts on values possibly starting to trend similar to the beginning of the run up on 356s and 911s?

I would also like to hear about how many of you have Concours quality 914s as I have not heard much about those cars in the forums.

[Tom_T]

The early 911 values' push effect has been going on since 2000 & even back into the late `90's to some extent, with the expected pauses or flattening at recession times. When the early SWB & LWB 911s pushed into 6-figures & some into mid-6's - then the 914-6s first, & 73-74 2.0s, 74 LEs etc. next began to rise.

So not only are 911s taildragers, but are also "the tail wagging the dog" when it comes to 914 values.

Similarly, with the 4-cylinder 356s reaching even higher heights than early 911s, that drove prices for both 4 & 6 flavors of 914s as more accessible early air-cooled collectable Porsches. Remember that you could get a Speedster, Coupe or Cab #1 cars which now sell in restored & even restoration-resurrections for 2-300KS - which in the 1960s-70s for a couple of thousand dollars!

So never say never, about if 914/4s would ever pass $100K at some point - as we're 1/3 of the way there now!

Also lately with the early 911 prices plateauing, the 914 values seem to follow suit & have flattened out their rise from the mid to high $20Ks for a Concours level 73 914-2.0 in 2009-10, up to the early to mid $30Ks & relatively flat since 2015.

https://www.hagerty.com/apps/valuationtools...Porsche-914-2.0
^ see the chart at the bottom, & revise the search for any other MY & engine/sub-model you like.

Similarly, the factory 914-6's went from the $50-70Ks to $90-100K+'s in the same period, & have been flat lately.

Part of this is the fickle nature of what the big collectors think is hot - or will be - & what they pine for, as well as the economics of the purchase/value relative to other options. So later 70's 911s are feeling the same value push & interest lately.

Also - while the top end #1 cars rise or pause, so do the #2-4 cars, as well as resto-mods, conversions, etc. - just at a lower level than are the "hen's teeth'" #1 all original numbers matching cars - with an unmolested, low mile, all original & never restored #1 exceeding their value curve by quite a bit.

.... & I do mean "ALL original" - not the ubiquitous "all original, except..." cars too often advertised at top prices. If well done they may have a good value, but not the top dawg all original values.

Probably at this point while some "virgin all originals" are available, as well as undamaged & minimally rusted/repaired & accident free "all originals" with restos requiring minimal body work, both commanding top values - those "originals/numbers matching examples with more rustoration &/or accident repairs in the resto will lag a bit below those. However, in the future as supply of good #1 cars dwindle & if demand for them keeps up or grows even more, then even those will close the gap on the all originals over time.

Similarly, the resto-mods, 6-conversions, Subi-conversions & V8-beasts, etc. will command good values relative to the quality level of their work done - but at a level below the originals at any of the #1-4 quality levels.

So at some future date TBD, the 914s - both 6 & 4 - may reach the recent highs of the early SWB & LWB 911s - but by then they too will have escalated in all probability.

However, the early SWB & LWB 912s & 76 912Es will probably stay within close value with the more desirable 914/4s (74 LEs, 73-74 2.0s, 75-76 2.0s, 72 914/4 1.7s, & very early production date/number 70 MY 1.7s) - as they are today.

The 914-6s are & will remain above those 914/4s & 912s/912Es & closer to the early SWB & LWB 911s, & maybe even stay comparable to the lower end 911Ts & 911Ls of that era - or perhaps even more than them, if more collector folks finally figure out that the 914-6 is both more rare by numbers produced & handles so much better than those base level taildraggers!

That's my opinion of the forecast anyway, & that of many other collectors, insurers, etc.

So my word of caution is - whatever model/engine 914 & condition level #1-4 that you have - make sure to recheck the current values & adjust your insurance coverage accordingly ever year or two - so that you're not cut short in case something happens to your baby!

PS - FYI - my 914 is an early 73 2.0 with the Appearance & Performance Groups of options included in the base price & marketed in late 72 & early 73 as a "914S" "Trim Package"* (similar to but not with the +/-1000 limited numbers of the 74 914-2.0 LE Trim Package*), & it's a matching numbers car, but it has accident & rust damage which needs to be repaired in my resto. So even though I plan to keep it all original, taking it back to the OE Light Ivory L80E paint, with a few of the optional dealer accessories sold back in the day (e.g.: the AMCO Porsche+Audi approved Porsche Crest shift knob, which has been on it since I got it as 2nd owner in 12/75), as well as returning it to the factory supplied center console, fog lights & Fuchs 2L alloys which were removed by the selling dealer before the OO bought it new - it won't rank in the top class of very low mile all original, lightly restored or fully restored 914s with less rust/panel damage to repair.

For those wondering about my 911S & LE comparison as a "Trim Package" - here is a Wike definition for it below, & there are other definitions out there too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trim_package

Cheers! (IMG:style_emoticons/default/beerchug.gif)
Tom
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[bbrock]

Also lately with the early 911 prices plateauing, the 914 values seem to follow suit & have flattened out their rise from the mid to high $20Ks for a Concours level 73 914-2.0 in 2009-10, up to the early to mid $30Ks & relatively flat since 2015.

https://www.hagerty.com/apps/valuationtools...Porsche-914-2.0
^ see the chart at the bottom, & revise the search for any other MY & engine/sub-model you like.

Interesting, Hagerty has the '76 2.0L valued ~ $500-$600 higher than earlier cars and 73/74 2.0s valued the same as '75. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/confused24.gif)

[Tom_T]

Also lately with the early 911 prices plateauing, the 914 values seem to follow suit & have flattened out their rise from the mid to high $20Ks for a Concours level 73 914-2.0 in 2009-10, up to the early to mid $30Ks & relatively flat since 2015.

https://www.hagerty.com/apps/valuationtools...Porsche-914-2.0
^ see the chart at the bottom, & revise the search for any other MY & engine/sub-model you like.

Interesting, Hagerty has the '76 2.0L valued ~ $500-$600 higher than earlier cars and 73/74 2.0s valued the same as '75. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/confused24.gif)

Brent,

I'm not sure, but I think that may be driven by a few recent sales of a few very low mile & pristine 76 2Ls, & IIRC one yellow one has re-traded several times over the past 5-6 years for an increase.

Here in CA the 76 & on smog compliance requirements will continue to hold them back for anything but a never driven Queen, until & unless the legislature here moves the goal post for smog exempt further past the 76 MY cars.

IMHO we'll continue to see the GA & GC versions of the 2L close to each other, perhaps with the 76 edging out on the collector preference due to the lower numbers, as with the 74 2.0 LE.

The early 73 MY 2.0s with the "fully loaded" "914S" trim package will be somewhere lagging those a tad, but more popular since they all included the preferred chrome bumpers with foglights, loop carpet with console & other desired options. Unfortunately, PCNA doesn't list them as "included options" on their COAs (nor do they for 911R, 911RS & other special packages), although they do list the combo paint number in color for the 74 LEs.

.

Bill,

The non-CA 75-76 GC 2.0s were pretty choked down as stock from the factory - while the 49 state version was a bit better on power. If yours has bypassed all that gear &/or been tweaked for your driving pleasure, then it will perform pretty much as a 73-74 GA 2L. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

Back in 75 when I was looking for my 914, I also test drove a few new 75 & 76 GC 2Ls as possible new car purchase - since new was an option for me then on a limited monthly budget a year out of college, what with the bank offering 100% financing, 5 year term & lower interest rate - so my monthly payments would've been close to the max 80% financed 3 year term & higher rate, within maybe $10/mo of each other.

But I could tell a significant power difference between the 75-76 GC 2L in Calif smog fitment, & the 73-74 GA 2Ls - which were a good 20% more HP/TQ - since the CA GC 2L had about as much power as a 70-72 1.7L - at 86 vs 80 HP respectively IIRC. So I & most others I knew could tell the difference easily, but in all cases we're talking less than 100 HP, so not the 300-600+ HP bench racing debates of today - which monster power you can't really use in the real world, even with all the intervening electronic nannies.

The fun then & now of our 914s, is being able to drive them at 80-100% on public roads & enjoying their handling! (IMG:style_emoticons/default/driving.gif) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/driving-girl.gif)

Back then the 73-74 was definitely preferred by most folks, unless they wanted a new car only. My Dad was always banging-on about letting someone else take the 20-25% loss of value when driving your brand spanking new car off the lot, so I leaned in that direction, as well as to cut off payments sooner with a shorter 3 yr. loan.

(IMG:style_emoticons/default/beerchug.gif)
Tom
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