Is this really goin to happen?, 2035 Phase Out all new gas cars |
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Is this really goin to happen?, 2035 Phase Out all new gas cars |
ndfrigi |
Sep 23 2020, 02:36 PM
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#1
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Advanced Member Group: Members Posts: 2,928 Joined: 21-August 11 From: Orange County Member No.: 13,474 Region Association: Southern California |
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horizontally-opposed |
Sep 24 2020, 07:34 AM
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#2
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Advanced Member Group: Members Posts: 3,431 Joined: 12-May 04 From: San Francisco Member No.: 2,058 Region Association: None |
Nice to see this conversation veer away from politics. Some very thoughtful points above, and nice to see perspective from a brother overseas to boot.
Mainly just glad to get some thoughts from fellow 914 nuts—as change is a'comin. I don't know if it's as soon as 2035—and even if it is, for new cars, there's gonna be a long transition to replace the existing CA fleet with ~2,000,000 new cars sold per year. Looks like there are about 274,000,000 motor vehicles registered in USA, with probably 30,000,000 (?) of them in CA. Probably why ol' Elon estimates a 15-year transition, so 2050 before gas stations get harder to find and heavy taxation can be levied without complaints that heavy disincentives are an unfair tax on those who can't afford a new or newer car, etc. Much the same as the discussions surrounding smog tests, cash for clunkers, etc. Then there's the not so small matter of what can be done. The last round of CAFE and US standards seemed to me beyond optimistic when it came to MPG, and still do years later. Unless everyone wants to drive a CRX HF… Not sure I buy gas stations will ever go away completely—unless something big happens, EVs simply don't have the range to replace internal combustion for those who need or want to drive long distances. Conversely, few of us need vehicles with 300-mile range on a daily basis. My daily car is rarely driven more than 50-80 miles a day (and usually a lot less than that), and then triple-digit mileages just a handful of times a year. If there's a viable, affordable, fun to drive (!), good-looking, low or near-zero maintenance car to replace my daily, I'd have to look at that. If the downside was having to stop to charge on a long trip a couple or a few times a year, I'd have to consider the other benefits (no more weekly gas station stops, no more maintenance/oil changes, fewer moving parts, etc). So far, I see no EV that interests me, but that may change. |
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