Is this really goin to happen?, 2035 Phase Out all new gas cars |
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Is this really goin to happen?, 2035 Phase Out all new gas cars |
ndfrigi |
Sep 23 2020, 02:36 PM
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#1
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Advanced Member Group: Members Posts: 2,928 Joined: 21-August 11 From: Orange County Member No.: 13,474 Region Association: Southern California |
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horizontally-opposed |
Sep 24 2020, 07:34 AM
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#2
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Advanced Member Group: Members Posts: 3,431 Joined: 12-May 04 From: San Francisco Member No.: 2,058 Region Association: None |
Nice to see this conversation veer away from politics. Some very thoughtful points above, and nice to see perspective from a brother overseas to boot.
Mainly just glad to get some thoughts from fellow 914 nuts—as change is a'comin. I don't know if it's as soon as 2035—and even if it is, for new cars, there's gonna be a long transition to replace the existing CA fleet with ~2,000,000 new cars sold per year. Looks like there are about 274,000,000 motor vehicles registered in USA, with probably 30,000,000 (?) of them in CA. Probably why ol' Elon estimates a 15-year transition, so 2050 before gas stations get harder to find and heavy taxation can be levied without complaints that heavy disincentives are an unfair tax on those who can't afford a new or newer car, etc. Much the same as the discussions surrounding smog tests, cash for clunkers, etc. Then there's the not so small matter of what can be done. The last round of CAFE and US standards seemed to me beyond optimistic when it came to MPG, and still do years later. Unless everyone wants to drive a CRX HF… Not sure I buy gas stations will ever go away completely—unless something big happens, EVs simply don't have the range to replace internal combustion for those who need or want to drive long distances. Conversely, few of us need vehicles with 300-mile range on a daily basis. My daily car is rarely driven more than 50-80 miles a day (and usually a lot less than that), and then triple-digit mileages just a handful of times a year. If there's a viable, affordable, fun to drive (!), good-looking, low or near-zero maintenance car to replace my daily, I'd have to look at that. If the downside was having to stop to charge on a long trip a couple or a few times a year, I'd have to consider the other benefits (no more weekly gas station stops, no more maintenance/oil changes, fewer moving parts, etc). So far, I see no EV that interests me, but that may change. |
bbrock |
Sep 24 2020, 08:29 AM
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#3
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914 Guru Group: Members Posts: 5,269 Joined: 17-February 17 From: Montana Member No.: 20,845 Region Association: Rocky Mountains |
Nice to see this conversation veer away from politics and personal attacks. Some very thoughtful points above, and nice to see perspective from a brother overseas to boot. Mainly glad to get some thoughts from fellow 914 nuts. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/agree.gif) Just about everything Pete writes sounds gold to me. As someone who spent a career as an ecologist in wildlife conservation, this issue has been front and center for decades. Change will, and must happen quickly as we've simply run out of time dithering looking for the magic "perfect" solution. Can a shift like this happen by 2035? Probably not, but that target is about right to keep moving at the pace needed even if the target is not hit on time. I'm not worried about the future of my 914 though. As has been said, a ban on sale of NEW ICE cars is very different from a ban on ICE. This is a numbers game where reducing total emissions is the target. That can happen without an outright ban. Even with increased longevity, the average age of cars on the road is 12 years with 75% of vehicles on the road less than 16 years. If 100% of the replacements are zero emissions, it doesn't take long to drastically cut total emissions simply through natural attrition. What is more likely to happen to ICE is that as the market for gasoline shrinks, so will the infrastructure for selling it. Gas stations will become fewer and farther between and the price of gas may actually decline as the demand decreases but I think we can count on increased taxes on that gas. It's all good. Making this change increases the odds that some future group of enthusiasts not yet born will some day be nostalgically wringing their hands over their beloved EVs being replaced by whatever comes next. |
Jim C |
Sep 24 2020, 08:39 AM
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#4
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Member Group: Members Posts: 190 Joined: 11-July 19 From: Texas Member No.: 23,294 Region Association: Southwest Region |
Nice to see this conversation veer away from politics and personal attacks. Some very thoughtful points above, and nice to see perspective from a brother overseas to boot. Mainly glad to get some thoughts from fellow 914 nuts. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/agree.gif) Just about everything Pete writes sounds gold to me. As someone who spent a career as an ecologist in wildlife conservation, this issue has been front and center for decades. Change will, and must happen quickly as we've simply run out of time dithering looking for the magic "perfect" solution. Can a shift like this happen by 2035? Probably not, but that target is about right to keep moving at the pace needed even if the target is not hit on time. I'm not worried about the future of my 914 though. As has been said, a ban on sale of NEW ICE cars is very different from a ban on ICE. This is a numbers game where reducing total emissions is the target. That can happen without an outright ban. Even with increased longevity, the average age of cars on the road is 12 years with 75% of vehicles on the road less than 16 years. If 100% of the replacements are zero emissions, it doesn't take long to drastically cut total emissions simply through natural attrition. What is more likely to happen to ICE is that as the market for gasoline shrinks, so will the infrastructure for selling it. Gas stations will become fewer and farther between and the price of gas may actually decline as the demand decreases but I think we can count on increased taxes on that gas. It's all good. Making this change increases the odds that some future group of enthusiasts not yet born will some day be nostalgically wringing their hands over their beloved EVs being replaced by whatever comes next. Of course as gas use decreases an alternative to the gas tax to maintain roads will have to be implemented. Charge per mile of travel anyone? |
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