Is this really goin to happen?, 2035 Phase Out all new gas cars Options

[ndfrigi]

as long we can keep existing gas cars especially our 914!

[horizontally-opposed]

Really curious to know more about the longevity of new cars going up rather than down. Is there some way to learn more about that?

My anecdotal experience is sort of the opposite, with many recently popular cars just gone from the roadways because of the cheap way they're built (i.e. E60 BMWs, which were already pretty awful but apparently killed off by bad and heinously expensive fuel injectors that have to be replaced in sets), where in the "old days" it seemed like cars were made to live a long time. At least in places they don't rust. And the cost to manufacture, ship, sell, and dismantle cars is huge.

And yes to the point about cutting off one's nose to spite his/her face. See it in all sorts of well-meaning environmental legislation where something changes but the reaction causes more damage. One of the dumbest is the deletion of the dipstick as well as hood-opening sensors, which forces techs to go drive around in the car for a certain distance to make the computer happy. And yet, trend in air quality from 1968 > 2000s here in the Bay Area is simply undeniable, moving from an inability to see across the bay from east bay hills due to the smog most days to very clean air most days (sadly, our pollution gets pushed to the central valley…which makes you wonder what that must've been like back then). Those vilified air pumps, thermal reactors, and catalysts (only one of these was a really good thing…and it took a while to get to) were key to a real, tangible improvement and a long second wind for the performance car. Arguably, we've only enjoyed the performance cars we have since the 1980s because of the efficiency required by legislation, which drove the need for O2 sensors.

Battery materials and disposal are legit concerns.

Cost to consumers, less so, as a high % of consumers seem to lease their daily cars and there's a tipping point between lease + running costs + convenience. From many consumers' standpoint, the EV is either "there" or about to be. EVs may also offer better longevity as whole cars, with so few moving parts. And good cooling seems to go a long way with re: to batteries. And how many ICE cars, in the fleet at large, see 200,000, 300,000, 500,000 miles etc. anymore? Seems a lot depreciate to the point they're not worth fixing, and then. I'd like to learn more, but what appeared to be fair and not EV-motivated studies suggest EVs are less damaging to the earth from cradle to grave.

Whatever the case, I don't think much of this conversation will apply to our 914s or fun cars built in the last 100 years or the next 15. Maybe it'll look different in 2050, but the rest of the world probably will too. But I think this decision may have a big effect on what most people drive every day over the next 30~ years. I'm not sure that's such a bad thing. Listening to the street outside my office, I hear one bird and a ton of Honda Odysseys, Maximas, F150s, and other bland mobiles.

I'd rather listen to the bird...and then really enjoy the occasional cool car or motorcycle.

[bbrock]

Really curious to know more about the longevity of new cars going up rather than down. Is there some way to learn more about that?

Here are DOT stats on average age of vehicles on the road since 1995. Obviously there are other factors that influence the age of the cars we drive than longevity, but it's reasonable to assume most cars don't reach the scrap heap until they become unreliable or unsafe to drive. I haven't found anything on cradle to grave lifespan though. It may be out there but would be a more direct measure.

Anecdotally, the reliability of first cars I owned started to decline rapidly after 100K and stretching it to 120K guaranteed being left stranded more once. Even worse were the early Japanese imports that started to rapidly decay at around 60K miles. I don't have anything in my fleet now with under 120K. One is pushing 300K and while I wouldn't trust it on a cross country trip, it is find for trips withing 100 miles from home. Our DD has 200K and we think nothing of hopping in for cross country trips. Neither car has had any major work. Just maintenance. Of course, that isn't uniform across all makes and models and I do agree that some of the high end makes have cheapened themselves by chasing higher volume sales.

And yes to the point about cutting off one's nose to spite his/her face.

At the risk of opening another can of worms, the worst case of this in my experience is how my environmental and conservation colleagues have irrationally turned their back on nuclear. I have yet to see a serious analysis of a roadmap toward zero emissions that doesn't rely on nuclear. The health and safety record of the old and outdated technology is still way better than coal and new designs would eliminate risk of failures like we have seen in the past. Sure, it isn't perfect and presents challenges as do all technologies including solar. But no. It is off the table. WTF?

I'd rather listen to the bird...and then really enjoy the occasional cool car or motorcycle.

And the birds would agree with you. Several studies have shown that noisy environments reduce reproductive success. Turns out being able to hear each other is pretty important for them. Go figure.