Is this really goin to happen?, 2035 Phase Out all new gas cars |
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Is this really goin to happen?, 2035 Phase Out all new gas cars |
ndfrigi |
Sep 23 2020, 02:36 PM
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#1
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Advanced Member Group: Members Posts: 2,928 Joined: 21-August 11 From: Orange County Member No.: 13,474 Region Association: Southern California |
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mrholland2 |
Sep 24 2020, 12:05 PM
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#2
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 750 Joined: 7-September 11 From: Santa Maria,CA Member No.: 13,531 Region Association: Central California |
Just think about how far EV and other zero or nearly zero emission vehicles have come since 2005 (15 years in the past).
Do you all think that we will be in the same place as now? Nope. The next 15 years will likely progress as quickly as the last 35. Will this really come to pass? Probably not due to the lack of broadly available technology. This is a negotiation and we now have the "line in the sand" but not a "barrier of lead" to work from. My guess is that we will have better tax breaks on zero emissions and the closer to zero emissions a vehicle is, the better the tax breaks. Conversely, the further from zero emissions a vehicle is, the larger the tax increases. (For purchases of new vehicles only). Other items will follow as far as guzzler taxes on cars that get below a set standard etc. . . Just a guess. |
RARE 6 |
Sep 24 2020, 01:33 PM
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#3
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Member Group: Members Posts: 141 Joined: 18-January 15 From: Grand Junction CO Member No.: 18,337 Region Association: Rocky Mountains |
Another real elephant in the room, whatever we end up driving or riding in, is highway construction and maintenance. Now largely funded by federal and state gas taxes that are a declining per capita revenue stream since increased fuel efficiency of petroleum powered vehicles prompted the start of declining gas and diesel demand. Hybrids, EVs etc. only exacerbate the problem.
It won't matter much how we power our transportation if there's no useful infrastructure between Point A and Point B. I don't think the answer will be mandating increased fuel consumption from gas and diesel powered conveyances or that every household own a late '70s gas guzzler in order to drive more demand for petro fuels and thus higher gas tax collections. Sooner rather than later we'll have to come to grips with per-mile taxes or fees, mileage based registration fees or some other alternate funding mechanisms for our streets and roads. I spent part of my professional career consulting with both major international companies as well as environmental organizations on energy issues. The mantra from the majors was "we don't want to be in then buggy whip business." They insisted they were energy companies, not oil companies. That's why even 25 years ago major portions of their r&d budgets were targeted to biofuels, solar, wind, hydrogen, etc. Auto manufacturers are moving toward alternatives for the ICE for the same reason. As others have mentioned, EVs may be the answer...or just a transition to something else. In the bigger picture, three things drive our overall energy use...transportation, building practices and land use patterns. New homes and offices are more energy efficient. Density (like it or not) is more energy efficient than sprawl. Hard to think transportation is or should be immune from evolution and change. |
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