Is this really goin to happen?, 2035 Phase Out all new gas cars Options

[Jeff Hail]

I was thinking on the lines of Outlaws, lots of Outlaws, lots of geriatric Outlaws. Cup holders loaded with Boost and Ensure.

Its not like anyone around here has never done anything illegal in life. Hell I got my first ticket the day I got my drivers license cruising Van Nuys Blvd.

Life is to get better with time. I cannot imagine anything more enjoyable than breaking the law when I get to that age. Especially driving a car that has been outlawed.

Heck Jay Leno is doing it today. Why should we be different?

[sechszylinder]

I guess, that besides allowing to sell only ev cars, taxes on gas will be raised extremely. Thats the plan for Germany.
Just to remember, when the first ICB powered cars were produced by daimler benz in Germany, you have to buy the fuel in the drugstore (IMG:style_emoticons/default/lol-2.gif)
So, be smart, buy stocks from tesla or vw (of course i‘m german) and compensate for all that.

Honestly speaking, I‘m quite sure, that cheap mobility for everyone is something from the past, since there will be no cheap ev „Volkswagen“ in the near future.


Benno

[VegasRacer]

Hell I got my first ticket the day I got my drivers license cruising Van Nuys Blvd.

(IMG:style_emoticons/default/lol-2.gif) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/av-943.gif) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/aktion035.gif)





It took me almost a month to get my First Speeding Ticket. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/first.gif)

[Superhawk996]

I was thinking on the lines of Outlaws, lots of Outlaws, lots of geriatric Outlaws. Cup holders loaded with Boost and Ensure.

Its not like anyone around here has never done anything illegal in life. Hell I got my first ticket the day I got my drivers license cruising Van Nuys Blvd.

Life is to get better with time. I cannot imagine anything more enjoyable than breaking the law when I get to that age. Especially driving a car that has been outlawed.

Heck Jay Leno is doing it today. Why should we be different?

(IMG:style_emoticons/default/smilie_pokal.gif)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAvQSkK8Z8U

[Racer]

As Jay Leno has mentioned several times... ICE cars will go the way of the Horse. You will eventually be relegated to have them as a luxury. You will have to take them certain places to use them and they will become the plaything of the rich. "Red Barchettta" indeed (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

California will also pull sway in the Northeast where 6-7 states already follow CA regulations for vehicle emissions. Im looking at you Boston and NYC as the places that will also spearhead a similar effort, at least in cities.

Sitting at idle while you commute does no one any good from an air quality point of view. So, it will start with commuters first (looking at you London with your "tolls" (taxes) to drive an ICE into the busy city center) and go from there. I don't like it.. Electric isn't the answer for everyone, everywhere, but realistically, for most commuters, it is a reasonable alternative.

I would also rather suck it up and drive an electric car than have to take public transportation (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

[Coondog]

Sorry just don’t see big oil letting this happen. LA Metro bought a couple battery powered buses and they couldn’t even make it up some simple hills. There now parked.

I will buy a elec car when.
# The price comes down
# When they aren’t so ugly.......blame Tesla
# When you can go 1000 miles without a charge
# When charging only takes 5 minutes

California’s future

[daytona]

In my humble opinion, it is unlikely to happen by 2035. I am sure it will happen some day, but not 2035. California doesn't have enough electric power now, and unless it builds a couple more power generating plants by then, there is no way it can support that kind of change. Maybe by then people will start to be concerned not only with their carbon foot print but also with their destruction foot print of the countries being devastated mining for lithium. Just saying.

[Jim C]

Not being political... legal analysis only...

but .. the order is mostly symbolic. It violates the Commerce Clause of the US Constitution, so it fails judicial scrutiny, in theory. Now, the automakers would have to challenge it and get it before the courts, in this case, the 9th Circus and then the Supreme Court.

That being said, if one party wins the election, they could decide the "green new deal" is so important, they could try to modify the commerce clause. But mostly, it would not live through judicial scrutiny. For those of you who need the primer on the Commerce Clause, you cannot enact a law that negatively impacts interstate commerce, or commerce between the 50 states. You can enact all the laws you want "within" the state, or "intrastate commerce". This clearly effects commerce between states as automakers are both foreign and domestic.


And yes, I would love to leave CA, but I won't take a BAR exam again, as it was miserable the first time....

Except that the Clean Air Act allows CA to set its own auto emission standards (only state with that authority). Note that Newsom decreed "zero emissions" not EV. The legal question is whether he can do this by executive order or whether the legislature needs to pass a law.

[Racer]

The grid is not of concern. If there is money to be made, private industry will fill the need if the government won't. The mandate is to remove ICE emitting sources of polluton and cars are the easy target. Global manufacturers have bought in and all offer, or will offer, at least 1 electric vehicle for sale. Its about driving change. Change is never easy, especially in America where we all cling to our "constitutional freedoms".. well.. I don't recall seeing "car ownership" in that document.

Not sure who gets the Hagerty magazine, but they had an article about California and its initial efforts in the 1940s and 50s to get active in cleaning up the air. Interesting read of the challenge between "Carb", the EPA and auto makers to advance technology that simply, did not exist!

[Coondog]

Sorry but in Calif the grid is the problem. Calif put hugh restrictions on its natural gas powered plants in favor of solar and wind. Then they went out and bought controlling interest in plants outside of our state and shut those down.

Problem with solar and wind is they do have limits and the cost to store that energy is off the table. We just finished another round here of rolling blackouts and Calif had to get electricity from several states away.

[mepstein]

I think cities will be the first to change. First electric vehicles. Then autonomous electric vehicles that are corporate owned. The advantage I see is not having to own a car. No purchase price, monthly maintenance, storage or insurance. They just show up when you need them and you pay per mile. No need to learn how to drive. Put your 10 year old in the car and send them to school or their friends house.

Will the future be 914 friendly, probably not but our numbers will dwindle to nothing over time. The younger generations won't miss it.

[horizontally-opposed]

Nice to see this conversation veer away from politics. Some very thoughtful points above, and nice to see perspective from a brother overseas to boot.

Mainly just glad to get some thoughts from fellow 914 nuts—as change is a'comin. I don't know if it's as soon as 2035—and even if it is, for new cars, there's gonna be a long transition to replace the existing CA fleet with ~2,000,000 new cars sold per year. Looks like there are about 274,000,000 motor vehicles registered in USA, with probably 30,000,000 (?) of them in CA. Probably why ol' Elon estimates a 15-year transition, so 2050 before gas stations get harder to find and heavy taxation can be levied without complaints that heavy disincentives are an unfair tax on those who can't afford a new or newer car, etc. Much the same as the discussions surrounding smog tests, cash for clunkers, etc.

Then there's the not so small matter of what can be done. The last round of CAFE and US standards seemed to me beyond optimistic when it came to MPG, and still do years later. Unless everyone wants to drive a CRX HF…

Not sure I buy gas stations will ever go away completely—unless something big happens, EVs simply don't have the range to replace internal combustion for those who need or want to drive long distances. Conversely, few of us need vehicles with 300-mile range on a daily basis. My daily car is rarely driven more than 50-80 miles a day (and usually a lot less than that), and then triple-digit mileages just a handful of times a year. If there's a viable, affordable, fun to drive (!), good-looking, low or near-zero maintenance car to replace my daily, I'd have to look at that. If the downside was having to stop to charge on a long trip a couple or a few times a year, I'd have to consider the other benefits (no more weekly gas station stops, no more maintenance/oil changes, fewer moving parts, etc). So far, I see no EV that interests me, but that may change.

[restore2seater]

Something else to ponder: companies popping up to convert gas to electric. Your 914 obviously won't sound or feel the same as a gas powered flat six but the looks would be the same and depending on weight delta to convert, still handle like a 914. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/driving.gif)

[Racer]

As for a cheap EV? you can buy a used Leaf for less money than a 914..

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylist...tedEntity=d2077

I don't recall their range (80 miles?) but no one said you had to go buy a new Tesla or Taycan.

I know.. its not what you want.. but it may be what you "need" someday. and in 15 years, a then cpo used "leaf" or "bolt" will likely have a range of 300+ miles/charge.. maybe 500 miles.. who knows.

[bbrock]

Nice to see this conversation veer away from politics and personal attacks. Some very thoughtful points above, and nice to see perspective from a brother overseas to boot. Mainly glad to get some thoughts from fellow 914 nuts.

(IMG:style_emoticons/default/agree.gif) Just about everything Pete writes sounds gold to me.

As someone who spent a career as an ecologist in wildlife conservation, this issue has been front and center for decades. Change will, and must happen quickly as we've simply run out of time dithering looking for the magic "perfect" solution. Can a shift like this happen by 2035? Probably not, but that target is about right to keep moving at the pace needed even if the target is not hit on time.

I'm not worried about the future of my 914 though. As has been said, a ban on sale of NEW ICE cars is very different from a ban on ICE. This is a numbers game where reducing total emissions is the target. That can happen without an outright ban. Even with increased longevity, the average age of cars on the road is 12 years with 75% of vehicles on the road less than 16 years. If 100% of the replacements are zero emissions, it doesn't take long to drastically cut total emissions simply through natural attrition. What is more likely to happen to ICE is that as the market for gasoline shrinks, so will the infrastructure for selling it. Gas stations will become fewer and farther between and the price of gas may actually decline as the demand decreases but I think we can count on increased taxes on that gas.

It's all good. Making this change increases the odds that some future group of enthusiasts not yet born will some day be nostalgically wringing their hands over their beloved EVs being replaced by whatever comes next.

[Andyrew]

Were phasing out of the ugly past 10 years with E vehicles where they were not practical for most buyers and entering he era where they are practical for most buyers. In 10 years they will be practical for all buyers as battery tech improves and charging rates drop.


As a consumer it only makes sense. Its newer, more efficient, more powerful tech that is quieter and has less emissions.


Im not at all worried about ICE cars, They will go by the wayside for everything but the important/classics. Worst case scenario? They get converted to electric by enthusiasts as the gasoline pumps dry out in 50 years.

[Jim C]

Nice to see this conversation veer away from politics and personal attacks. Some very thoughtful points above, and nice to see perspective from a brother overseas to boot. Mainly glad to get some thoughts from fellow 914 nuts.

(IMG:style_emoticons/default/agree.gif) Just about everything Pete writes sounds gold to me.

As someone who spent a career as an ecologist in wildlife conservation, this issue has been front and center for decades. Change will, and must happen quickly as we've simply run out of time dithering looking for the magic "perfect" solution. Can a shift like this happen by 2035? Probably not, but that target is about right to keep moving at the pace needed even if the target is not hit on time.

I'm not worried about the future of my 914 though. As has been said, a ban on sale of NEW ICE cars is very different from a ban on ICE. This is a numbers game where reducing total emissions is the target. That can happen without an outright ban. Even with increased longevity, the average age of cars on the road is 12 years with 75% of vehicles on the road less than 16 years. If 100% of the replacements are zero emissions, it doesn't take long to drastically cut total emissions simply through natural attrition. What is more likely to happen to ICE is that as the market for gasoline shrinks, so will the infrastructure for selling it. Gas stations will become fewer and farther between and the price of gas may actually decline as the demand decreases but I think we can count on increased taxes on that gas.

It's all good. Making this change increases the odds that some future group of enthusiasts not yet born will some day be nostalgically wringing their hands over their beloved EVs being replaced by whatever comes next.

Of course as gas use decreases an alternative to the gas tax to maintain roads will have to be implemented. Charge per mile of travel anyone?

[dcheek]

Forget politics, forget the environment. forget anything other than:
IT ALL COMES DOWN TO $$$$$$.

Gas is still cheap. In some cases, adjusting for inflation, cheaper than 30 years ago.
Until this changes, ICE's will still be produced and purchased by "middle Class". Plus petroleum distribution (i.e. gas stations) are prolific and quick to refuel your vehicle.

Now, there is only 2 ways to get people into EV's; add a $4.00/gal tax on gas, or make it more expensive to purchase an ICE vehicle by taxing the crap out of it, or flat out ban them. All of which would be political suicide for those who are putting forth such nonsense..

Oh, and there's the issue of raw materials to manufacture batteries, and dispose them safely. Where are we going to get all this Lithium from?

Like everything else, there has to be a balance between what is economically viable for the a average person. EV's in the present form are not as practical as a conventional ICE vehicle. That will change over time but, outlawing the old technology is just plain stupid.

Take for instance the outlawing of conventional toilets. Now you can purchase only 1 gallon flush toilets to be used with sewer systems designed for 2-3 gallon flushes. Duh, now the pipes get clogged. Oh, the solution is a smaller diameter waste line from 4" to 3" to increase the velocity. Wow, what a surprise - clogging still happening due to smaller passage.

When the government try's to tell us or make do what THEY think is best, it usually turns out to be a disaster. It usually costs more and doesn't work.

Let the free market work this out rather than shoving it down our throat.

Dave

[JamesM]

Honestly speaking, I‘m quite sure, that cheap mobility for everyone is something from the past, since there will be no cheap ev „Volkswagen“ in the near future.

What do you consider cheap?

I have seen used BMW I3s and Nissan Leafs for next to nothing.

With Teslas latest battery developments they are talking about at 25k price range for new vehicles. Not a lot of new cars today that MSRP for less than 25 that I would consider sitting in.

[Tom]

This is a difficult subject for us who grew up as young guys working on our own old clunkers. A lot of us grew up learning how to do just that by working on the farm machinery. Times change whether we like it or not. I dread the day when there will be no gas engines to work on any more. Heck, unless you have a bunch of new equipment to diagnose what is wrong, most of us can't even work on our new cars today. That SUCKS for me, someone who has always fixed my own car problems for over 55 years.
On the flip side, I envision kids wearing some kind of gas mask with an oxygen supplement system just to go outside. Will we be living in airtight homes with expensive air filtration and supplement systems to keep the air breathable for us. I know what the air was like growing up in the 1950/1960's, but what will kids see in the 2050's/2060's?
I forsee car racing to start going away for ICE cars. When we need to watch our financial health, we start looking for the small things first. ICE car racing would only be a small help and it is entertainment for some, but I think it will be getting attention some day soon.
In the future I think ICE cars will be fazed out by increasing the costs of fossil fuels until it is so much cheaper to go EV.
Fellows, we have lived in a wonderful time for ICE cars. I would say the golden years of automobiles, but many would argue the golden years were the 1920's-1960's. It sure was great while it lasted!
By the time they get around to outlawing motorcycles, I will be too old to ride anymore, otherwise I would be an outlaw! I am sure some of you feel the same way about your 914's. I would if I still had one.
Tom