Is this really goin to happen?, 2035 Phase Out all new gas cars Options

[thelogo]

[quote name='dcheek' date='Sep 24 2020, 02:15 PM' post='2854023']
I want to clarify my position on EV's (like anybody really cares what I think).

I'm for progress and innovation, just let the free market set the course, NOT the government.

(IMG:style_emoticons/default/pray.gif) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/agree.gif) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/pray.gif)

[Chris914n6]

Today we have the compact Bolt, Mini, 500e, Prius, Ionic, all starting just over $30k. The ICE version starts under $20k. The CUV Niro EV, i3, Kona EV, Y, starting at $40k. ICE versions under $30k.

The Teslas with the 500k (to be seen) batteries, add $10k.

Put that into payments and I would have to spend $250/mo on gas, about 2000 miles -- double the average for most people in CA, to break even.

Add to that the value of a budget EV after 12 years is near zero and you have one pricey cost of living expense.

The EV drivetrain costs $10k more than a manufactured turbo 4-banger and 6 speed auto. It would take a greater than 50% reduction in costs to break even.
Like I said, I don't see affordable happening in 15 years.

The closest thing in functionality to my 04 Blazer is the Model Y with tow package ($52k) or a new Chevy($30k). How long before I can buy one of those for $4k and $30/mo? I drive 3,000 miles a year.

An affordable EV made to fit everyone's needs in 15 years... I don't see how that's possible.

With Teslas latest battery development, and VW now also entering the market, I would not be surprised if we hit that mark in 5 years. Though "everyone" is a pretty broad base, but im not sure you could say ICE vehicles do that currently. There will always be some level of compromise. The "perfect" vehicle for everyone just doesn't exist.

[mepstein]

We've always had laws that set the boundaries. mpg, speed, safety, etc. Free market fills in the blanks of those boundaries. How much, how big, how fast, how many cupholders. The autonomous cars that show up at your doorstep isn't a rural thing but neither is Uber or city gas, water and septic. Free market will supply the 98% and rural areas will figure out what works for them. Rural doesn't have an air pollution problem. I'm rural btw.

Doing away with ICE vehicles sounds alien to me and my father but normal to my kids. My future grandkids won't know or care.

[76-914]

I finally read this post today and I can't help but think of H. Ford's quote; "If I'd asked people what they wanted they would have said faster horses!". The time for EV's is here.
Speaking as a Horse Power Whore, I love the EV's acceleration. Not to mention their endless possibilities. As Epstein mentioned earlier, the day is coming that one could pull in your drive and take you or your kids wherever. No more looking for spots to go parking with your date. Just activate the auto-darkening windows and have at it.. No more fluid changes or gas fumes. I read comments about rolling blackouts and a Solar systems inability to meet demands at night or cloudy days. Why is no one looking at the potential of an EV to serve as an energy storage unit. If the sun is not available you could tap into your EV for emergency power to your home. Or people could sell some of that stored energy back to the utility companies during peak demand periods avoiding rolling black outs. Just because we don't have all the answers presently is not to say they will not come quickly during this transition. As my friend (Kevin) Rhody guy said, I'm not going to be here then. But as someone from a time not so long. I want to be part of the group that rolls up their sleeves and says "Hell yes we can do this. And we can do it better and faster than any other country in the world". Naysaying won't change anything but ones attitude. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

[bbrock]

I live in one of those cold, rural places and I do see EV here, including the occasional Tesla. There are more hybrids for sure. One thing is that you see a turn over in the types of cars on the road summer to winter so a lot of people could just tuck their EVs away for the winter. It's still a reduction in carbon.

I love the free market but it doesn't solve all problems. It would be nice if it did. Nature and the laws of physics aren't going to adjust their timelines to let the free market work its will. We are on a tight deadline here and there is nothing we can do to change that except roll up our sleeves and "get 'er done."

BTW, thank you everyone for the thoughtful discussion. I'll be honest that when I first saw this thread, I was sure it would be one I'd have to stay away from. It's so nice to see a group of enthusiasts for old stinky cars in such a rich conversation.

[andrewb]

Morning gents - thought I'd chip in with a view from the other side of the pond. Firstly - as Brent the Badger says - good to see a (mostly) thoughful and considered discussion. Over here it all tends to get a bit animated and shouty - but then we're a bit further down the electric road than you are (with possible exception of CA ?).

Secondly I have to declare an interest - I work in the EV sector - mostly modifying Leafs and eNV200 vans so I know them well either in bits on the workshop floor or on the road as a daily driver. But I'm still a petrolhead (gearhead in American ?) at heart with diesel and gas cars at home and a garage full of motorbikes and - of course - a 914 on jackstands.

There's a lot of sense in the posts above - Brent's points about the environment and any reduction in pollution is a good thing in particular.
This relates to a point many people miss - just because it doesn't work for everybody all of the time doesn't mean it's not a good idea for some people some of the time. To look at it from another point of view a Ford F-150 is a good idea for some people (900,000 sold each year ?) some of the time - but no-one is suggesting that means that everyone wants one or should have one. Likewise with EVs - it works for some, not for others. As the technology improves 'some' will become 'most'. But it will never suit everybody all of the time - no-one is claiming that it will. There will always be applications and people and places where an EV doesn't work. Fine - but is that really a reason to say that it's a bad idea and no-one and nowhere else should have them ?

I also liked the Henry Ford quote about a faster horse. You can imagine that people were having the exact same conversations at the time "These car things are useless - you have go to a special place to put fuel in" " There aren't enough of those places to put fuel in" "I can get grass and apples anywhere - for free" etc etc. Amazing how we made the transition really isn't it ?

The biggest - almost only - limiting factor of EV acceptance is range and therefore the battery technology so there is a general point to be made here. There is an awful lot of nonsense - much of it extremely out of date - spoken about issues concerning the mining of the raw materials, battery manufacture, recycling old batteries etc etc. There is also a lot of good information out there written by people who actually know what they are on about. I won't claim to be an expert - it's a highly specialised and technical field which is changing all the time - so I'll simply link to the youtube channel of a battery electrochemist called Euan McTurk.

https://www.youtube.com/c/pluglifetelevision

I've tried to stay away from specifics because it can get personal but there are a couple of points I have to address.

1. I see statements that people will buy an EV when they can drive 1000 miles between charges. Why ? How often do you need to do that ? Does your ICE do that ? Can you do that ?

2. 'Used EVs are worthless' Not here - quite a thriving secondhand market and many dealers who only deal in EVs. In fact prices for used diesels are dropping rapidly.

Actually any argument based on costs is going to be out of date quite quickly because of the technological advancements which lead to cost savings and the legislative changes which don't always follow logic and often have unintended consequences.

If you've read through all that I'll finish with a quote from another great American:

"Don't believe everything you read on the internet" (Abraham Lincoln) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

[Superhawk996]

I've tried to stay away from specifics because it can get personal but there are a couple of points I have to address.

1. I see statements that people will buy an EV when they can drive 1000 miles between charges. Why ? How often do you need to do that ? Does your ICE do that ? Can you do that ?

Yes, I do regulary drive 500 miles in a day either for work or for pleasure. As @bbrock can attest to, I do 2200 miles regulary in a 48 hour period with an ICE. Sure range isn't 1000 miles per tank of gas but I can fuel in about 10 minutes and then keep rolliing.

The idea that I'd be limited to a range of 200-300 miles, have to plan a route around SuperChargers and then stop for 45 minutes or more every 200-300 miles simply isn't feasible for me.

Will be doing another cross country run in November, so it's definately not a once in a lifetime thing for me.

As stated, EV's may be fine for commuting around town but they don't work for everthing. If you wish to be limited to 200 miles of "freedom to travel" that is your choice. Not mine. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/shades.gif)

Not to further muddy the waters but keep in mind the new generation of "connected cars" not only has the enablers to track where you go, how fast you go there, and has been software enabled to conduct a controlled shutdown of your vehicle if so directed.

[VaccaRabite]

You don't have to go 15 years back. Commercial mass produced EV didn't exist 15 years ago, only hybrids. (Don't mention the EV1. Yes it existed in CA, but nowhere else). The tesla roadster was 2008, and it was pretty horrible. The bolt and leaf were 2010 - 10 years ago.

Look at the EV market in the past 10 years. The infrastructure is growing. My semi-rural PA small town has a sheetz with 8 Tesla fast charge stations. And I see a few cars using them every time I drive by.

My 90 mile commute (total back and forth) would be no sweat to any modern EV. Even in the winter. Every Tesla currently sold has a range option of 300+ miles. I gave them a HARD look when I decided to sell my WRX for a new daily. Course I made that hard right turn and bought a Challenger... But I also have not had to commute to work since March. Still though, most of the trips I take are within 200 miles of home.

A 2020 Bolt ahs a 250 mile range.
A 2020 Leaf has about 160 miles of range.

The times where an EV may only have an 90 mile range are well and truly over, and the range options are only going to get better. And range does not even matter in cities where most of these cars are designed to shine.

And almost every major automaker in the US either has to is planning to have an EV for sale.

I have no doubt that in 2035, if the California law has managed to stick around that there will be plenty of EV cars that are affordable for the common person.

I'd prefer to have the market decide wen EVs overtake the ICE, but it is coming. They are getting better every day.

Zach

[Tdskip]

I generally stay out of discussions like this because in my experience a lot of peoples minds are made up regardless of what others say, but I would simply add that we all can bitch and moan as much as we want but it’s not going change the laws of physics.

[bdstone914]

I would like to see electric postal vehicles. Seems like an ideal application. Recharve over night. Regenerative braking is ideal for the type of driving they do.

[Superhawk996]

I would like to see electric postal vehicles. Seems like an ideal application. Recharve over night. Regenerative braking is ideal for the type of driving they do.

I'd offer up that CA Gov't ought to be the first forced to adopt EV's before they are forced upon the public. Sounds good in theory. In reality that hasn't worked out so well for LAPD and their tax payers.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/36119/the-los...-is-up-for-sale

To @Tdskip 's previous point. I concur. People largely have their minds made up one way or another.

Personally I think it's as much about your "faith" in technology advancement. Is it linear, is is exponential, or was it initially exponential and now that the easy gains have been realized will it plateau?

I honestly don't know. I love EV's from a performance stand point. Nothing currently tops Max torque at zero RPM to achive staggering 0-60 times.

However, from a range and rechargeability standpoint, EV's still have a long way to go to be comparable to ICE.

I will adapt EV's when they make sense to my lifestyle but not a moment sooner.

[Racer]

fwiw, I imagine the youth will be highly receptive. They are used to charging everything several times a day. They also prefer Uber.. Prefer not owning anything.. and love having their parents drive them everywhere. Long trips in a car? no biggie to stop every 300 miles for 30 min and recharge. For them, the car is less romantic than it was for earlier generations, especially those who have enjoyed and embraced the ICE for the past 100+ years.

And yes, I imagine no mater what is offered, some folks will have a hard time embracing change. That they may have to amend their habits to accommodate the new.

otoh, so far, its only been California who has publicly claimed such a measure. Could this embolden others? perhaps.. or perhaps they will wait and see how this experiment goes. For me, if I was in cali, I would be nearly 65 when this goes into effect. I could buy my last ICE then and it truly might be my last car given how longs cars can last these days and not be burdened by this EV / Zero Emmission atrocities but I bet well before than I will have at minimum a hybrid and likely an EV before then. Maybe not as my only car, but as one of my cars.

While guns are protected under the 2nd amendment, I have a feeling that many treat cars the same way.. as some certain unalienable right that will have to be pried from their cold dead hands. All it takes is strokes of legislation to change everything.

[horizontally-opposed]

I've tried to stay away from specifics because it can get personal but there are a couple of points I have to address.

1. I see statements that people will buy an EV when they can drive 1000 miles between charges. Why ? How often do you need to do that ? Does your ICE do that ? Can you do that ?

Yes, I do regulary drive 500 miles in a day either for work or for pleasure. As @bbrock can attest to, I do 2200 miles regulary in a 48 hour period with an ICE. Sure range isn't 1000 miles per tank of gas but I can fuel in about 10 minutes and then keep rolliing.

The idea that I'd be limited to a range of 200-300 miles, have to plan a route around SuperChargers and then stop for 45 minutes or more every 200-300 miles simply isn't feasible for me.

Will be doing another cross country run in November, so it's definately not a once in a lifetime thing for me.

As stated, EV's may be fine for commuting around town but they don't work for everthing. If you wish to be limited to 200 miles of "freedom to travel" that is your choice. Not mine. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/shades.gif)

Not to further muddy the waters but keep in mind the new generation of "connected cars" not only has the enablers to track where you go, how fast you go there, and has been software enabled to conduct a controlled shutdown of your vehicle if so directed.

^ Yep. Your use case, EV isn't a fit.

At least, not for the vehicle(s) you use on those trips (having just returned from a one-day trip from CA to CO and the same on the way home, I am deeply envious of your lifestyle!).

Two thoughts here:

1) If we add an EV to our "fleet" of three cars, it would replace our Mazda, which is a lease. The 914 (the fun car) and 911 (usable semi-daily and road-trip car) would stay put. For the times that the 911 or an EV wouldn't work (maybe 0-4 times a year?), we could always rent something for a few days or a week, etc. If the EV lease is close-ish to where we are now, and we get rid of most of our monthly gas bill, I can live with that.

2) I was lucky to be an EV test hamster for a two-day run from Denmark to Germany last year about this time. Up til then, I think the only true EV I'd driven was a Leaf back in 2010. EVs just haven't interested me all that much, though some EV rides with friends who are into some serious hot-rodding (nutty old VWs to nuttier GT3s) surprised me and suggested these cars may end up getting FUN. Back to Denmark—which was a two-man run through the countryside, with one day of hooning all over the place (without raising ANY eyebrows, not even the bicyclists...try that in a 914-6 or GT3) and then a day of grand touring. The performance has been written about all over the place, so I'll skip that (though it was amazing...) and focus on something else: The Taycan Turbo could go further than my co-driver and I could. Eventually, we had to find a tree to pee on. I think we did 5 hours straight to get to the lunch stop, and we arrived with too much juice to allow us to quick-charge. So we went back out on the autobahn and burned off some juice (I'll see if I can post a link to that video). We returned for lunch, and like the day before, the charging setup was impressive: We pulled a water-cooled electrical line (you could just barely feel it pulsing) over to the Taycan, plugged it in, went and ordered a burger (didn't need to use the loo), and the car was charged sooner than we were done eating. About 20 minutes to get back to 85%.

And this technology stands to get better. I agree 45 minutes is a non-starter. 20 minutes? Less? And as the charging stations increase in number, and the cars themselves get better, the arguments against EVs for legitimate touring decrease. Also: the lack of noise and the usual good Porsche seats ended up leaving me fresher upon my arrival than I might have been in something else. I've noticed more and more Teslas on 5 between SF and LA in the last couple of years. Used to be you'd see one and have range anxiety for and with them as you passed by them, eeking it out. They were fairly rare sights, maybe 1-3 brave souls. Now I see them all the time, and while some of them seem to hyper-miling it, most aren't. They're just using them as regular cars.

I don't think EVs are a solution for everyone. But my better half and I realized that, if not the next lease, the one after has become a real possibility. It just might be a better way for one of our cars—and, potentially, the one we use most. Pity it won't be a Taycan, as a $$$,$$$ daily isn't in the cards. But there are plenty of other alternatives coming into the market, or already here…

EDIT: Found that video of an EV on the autobahn…at 269 kmh (167 mph, indicated). Easy peasey, and accelerates from 120-150 mph like a turbocharged car…
https://www.instagram.com/p/B20ACTVFGW3/?utm_source=ig_embed

[horizontally-opposed]

I would like to see electric postal vehicles. Seems like an ideal application. Recharve over night. Regenerative braking is ideal for the type of driving they do.

Me too. What they've got now are (by modern standards) gross polluters, and I recently learned no A/C.

FedEx trucks, UPS trucks—and all sorts of short-hop trucks and maybe even trailers—are great candidates for either EV or under-body hybrid system retrofit.

But the very dirtiest thing in our neighborhood is an old yellow schoolbus. Raw diesel exhaust. Now that's a fleet I'd like to see retrofit to become pure EVs. Keep the old bodies, which will likely last forever, and hang as many batteries as needed under them. Charge em' from the school roof if need be and shuttle the drivers back and forth during the school day. Where's Elon when you need him? Ah, that's right, either underground or on Mars.

[JamesM]

You cant really talk about much of a used market today because 1. Major manufactures are still relatively new to the EV game and some are just now entering it so the inventory just isnt there and 2. The technology is evolving so rapidly that some of the earlier attempts at EVs are pretty irrelevant.

So, if you stick with comparing apples to apples, new to new, I would say putting something like this up next to a 2021 Blazer and the EV may be starting to have a completing argument

https://electrek.co/2020/09/23/first-look-v...ore-incentives/

and that is literally their first mainstream entry into the US EV market, only going to improve from here. I think by 2035 it will be a non issue. Kids will see the ICE like they see manual transmissions today.

Today we have the compact Bolt, Mini, 500e, Prius, Ionic, all starting just over $30k. The ICE version starts under $20k. The CUV Niro EV, i3, Kona EV, Y, starting at $40k. ICE versions under $30k.

The Teslas with the 500k (to be seen) batteries, add $10k.

Put that into payments and I would have to spend $250/mo on gas, about 2000 miles -- double the average for most people in CA, to break even.

Add to that the value of a budget EV after 12 years is near zero and you have one pricey cost of living expense.

The EV drivetrain costs $10k more than a manufactured turbo 4-banger and 6 speed auto. It would take a greater than 50% reduction in costs to break even.
Like I said, I don't see affordable happening in 15 years.

The closest thing in functionality to my 04 Blazer is the Model Y with tow package ($52k) or a new Chevy($30k). How long before I can buy one of those for $4k and $30/mo? I drive 3,000 miles a year.

An affordable EV made to fit everyone's needs in 15 years... I don't see how that's possible.

With Teslas latest battery development, and VW now also entering the market, I would not be surprised if we hit that mark in 5 years. Though "everyone" is a pretty broad base, but im not sure you could say ICE vehicles do that currently. There will always be some level of compromise. The "perfect" vehicle for everyone just doesn't exist.

[flipb]

I recently realized that the reason I love driving an EV so much is that I love efficiency. I'm lazy. I try to do every task in the minimum amount of time possible. I love tools that are highly efficient.

Recouping energy each time I coast to a stoplight? Efficient!

My Tesla has a 60kwh battery and can go about 185mi on a full charge (was rated 208mi when new; this is after 7+ years and 78K miles). A gallon of gasoline contains about 36kwh of energy. That means I'm driving my car 180+ miles using the equivalent of less than two gallons of gasoline. In a vehicle that weighs 4,500lb. The best ICEs convert about 30% of the energy into forward motion. The electric motor converts 95%+. Efficiency.

And for all the concern about 20-30 minute "quick charge" times... I more than make up for those by eliminating the weekly 5-10 minute stops. Get home, plug in, go to bed, wake up, tank is full.

Battery density will improve. You can buy a Tesla today with 400 miles of range, or put down a deposit on one with 500+ mi. And Porsche has taken the lead on fast charging. By 2035, there will be plenty of EVs on the market with ranges of 300, 400, or 500+ miles per charge, and fast charging to the tune of 85% charge in 10-15 minutes.

All that said, I'm a little skeptical that California will stick with the 2035 date. EVs today are capable of 90% of the driving trips done by most individuals. By 2035 they'll be capable of somewhere closer to 99%. Bring it on.

[Root_Werks]

Was big into electric cars a number of years back. Even bought my buddies Tesla Roadster and glad I sold it.

I think it was in something like 1903 that almost 97% of the vehicles on the road were electric. Don't think we'll see a stat like that again until there's no money left to be made from oil.

[Racer]

I've come to like this guy - Engineering Explained. Here he talks about his long road trip in his Tesla and talks about ICE vs EV energy etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uC95WACQhCY

and in this one talks about EV shortcomings vs an ICE and why ICE isn't dead yet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hatav_Rdnno

[rhodyguy]

The future money will be in H2O. Not crude.

[VaccaRabite]

Was big into electric cars a number of years back. Even bought my buddies Tesla Roadster and glad I sold it.

I think it was in something like 1903 that almost 97% of the vehicles on the road were electric. Don't think we'll see a stat like that again until there's no money left to be made from oil.

I bet we see 50/50 in the next 20 years in more built up areas (East and West coasts). Middle of the country will take longer, but more rural areas I just don't see EVs working as well.

Zach