Is this really goin to happen?, 2035 Phase Out all new gas cars Options

[bbrock]

I don't think the middle of the country will be that far behind. I live in one of those areas where we put a LOT of miles on our cars and frequent long haul trips. Get EV to 300 mile range, 20 minute charge, and sufficient charging infrastructure and adoption will be rapid I think. We are almost there. I pay attention to charging stations as I travel long distances. There have been charging stations at most of our regular refueling stops through the boonies of Montana, Idaho, South Dakota, Wyoming, etc. for years. For a long time, I never saw them in use. Now there seems to be one or two vehicles plugged in whenever I stop for dino-go.

My dilemma now is deciding when to pull the trigger. EV are already a good fit for 95+% of our needs - including the frequent 250+ mile day trips to attend a meeting. They are so close to being a complete replacement for our DD Honda ICE that I think if we hold off replacing the Honda for a couple more years, we'll have an EV that outperforms in pretty much all aspects that are important to us.

[914_teener]

Morning gents - thought I'd chip in with a view from the other side of the pond. Firstly - as Brent the Badger says - good to see a (mostly) thoughful and considered discussion. Over here it all tends to get a bit animated and shouty - but then we're a bit further down the electric road than you are (with possible exception of CA ?).

Secondly I have to declare an interest - I work in the EV sector - mostly modifying Leafs and eNV200 vans so I know them well either in bits on the workshop floor or on the road as a daily driver. But I'm still a petrolhead (gearhead in American ?) at heart with diesel and gas cars at home and a garage full of motorbikes and - of course - a 914 on jackstands.

There's a lot of sense in the posts above - Brent's points about the environment and any reduction in pollution is a good thing in particular.
This relates to a point many people miss - just because it doesn't work for everybody all of the time doesn't mean it's not a good idea for some people some of the time. To look at it from another point of view a Ford F-150 is a good idea for some people (900,000 sold each year ?) some of the time - but no-one is suggesting that means that everyone wants one or should have one. Likewise with EVs - it works for some, not for others. As the technology improves 'some' will become 'most'. But it will never suit everybody all of the time - no-one is claiming that it will. There will always be applications and people and places where an EV doesn't work. Fine - but is that really a reason to say that it's a bad idea and no-one and nowhere else should have them ?

I also liked the Henry Ford quote about a faster horse. You can imagine that people were having the exact same conversations at the time "These car things are useless - you have go to a special place to put fuel in" " There aren't enough of those places to put fuel in" "I can get grass and apples anywhere - for free" etc etc. Amazing how we made the transition really isn't it ?

The biggest - almost only - limiting factor of EV acceptance is range and therefore the battery technology so there is a general point to be made here. There is an awful lot of nonsense - much of it extremely out of date - spoken about issues concerning the mining of the raw materials, battery manufacture, recycling old batteries etc etc. There is also a lot of good information out there written by people who actually know what they are on about. I won't claim to be an expert - it's a highly specialised and technical field which is changing all the time - so I'll simply link to the youtube channel of a battery electrochemist called Euan McTurk.

https://www.youtube.com/c/pluglifetelevision

I've tried to stay away from specifics because it can get personal but there are a couple of points I have to address.

1. I see statements that people will buy an EV when they can drive 1000 miles between charges. Why ? How often do you need to do that ? Does your ICE do that ? Can you do that ?

2. 'Used EVs are worthless' Not here - quite a thriving secondhand market and many dealers who only deal in EVs. In fact prices for used diesels are dropping rapidly.

Actually any argument based on costs is going to be out of date quite quickly because of the technological advancements which lead to cost savings and the legislative changes which don't always follow logic and often have unintended consequences.

If you've read through all that I'll finish with a quote from another great American:

"Don't believe everything you read on the internet" (Abraham Lincoln) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif) (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

Euan McTurk.....what a great name. I once worked with a Scottish Engineer named Brian Smiley (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif) He wasn't so smiley (IMG:style_emoticons/default/mad.gif)

Euan McTurk for PM.....oh....my Yank vote won't count. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/confused24.gif)

Nice post and great quote by Honest Abe (IMG:style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

[AZBanks]

I am waiting to see what shakes out for long term repair costs for EV's.

Will they be prohibitively expensive to repair long term?
Another possibility I imagine is manufacturers establishing enough backwards compatibility to make long term repairs a place for improvement.
If you have to replace the battery on a 10 year old EV, will you get a battery with tech from when the car was new or will you have the option of getting a better battery with current technology? Could you double the range of your old car just by getting a newer battery? (Euan McTurk just answered that in the first video I watched)
Will it even be worth it/cost effective to replace the battery at all?

[914_teener]

I am waiting to see what shakes out for long term repair costs for EV's.

Will they be prohibitively expensive to repair long term?
Another possibility I imagine is manufacturers establishing enough backwards compatibility to make long term repairs a place for improvement.
If you have to replace the battery on a 10 year old EV, will you get a battery with tech from when the car was new or will you have the option of getting a better battery with current technology? Could you double the range of your old car just by getting a newer battery?
Will it even be worth it/cost effective to replace the battery at all?

This is manufacturing engineering. The thought is long term investment and a return on that investment. Porsche did a lot of research and thought about this with the Taycan and went a different route with the cooling aspect of the batteries. It was one of the more difficult design decisions they made.With more heat comes battery degredation and the same goes for solar cells. That.s why they rate them at 70 degrees F.

When it was introduced at the PCA event I went to I asked the lead engineer what they hated the most about the aspects of the car and the answer he gave me was interesting.

The rear view mirrors.

[914werke]

Not to further muddy the waters but keep in mind the new generation of "connected cars" not only has the enablers to track where you go, how fast you go there, and has been software enabled to conduct a controlled shutdown of your vehicle if so directed.

I was wondering when someone was going to comment on the "Big Brother" aspect of the general direction this is taking us as a society
Im not one to prescribe to conspiracy theory's but its hard to ignore the "chipping away" effect the march to EV's then autonomous vehicles (cant call them cars anymore) will have on our personal freedoms & rights to privacy. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/idea.gif)
True as has been said now a couple times, Unless there is some technological breakthrough, Ill probably be dust by the time all this comes to pass. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

[Chris914n6]

I like the ID.4, and it competes with the Tiguan. Tiguan is about $5k cheaper after you add $7500 to the public debt. Break even point for gas cost in CA is ~ 46k miles (~66k for the rest of us).

At best it's 1 generation away from being a true replacement, likely 5 years from now. Telsa's new battery is 3 years away, which helps with cost but will still be more $$ and now without the rebate. So really, we are 2-3 gens away if tech moves forward significantly until we are cost equivalent.

Californians buy 2 million cars in a 17 million car market, not including the same cars sold in other Countries. Unless ID.4s and Bolts (~24k/yr/global) start selling like hotcakes there is no incentive for OEMs to expand their offerings beyond the upcoming dozen. FYI - Volt 157k sold in 10 years.

The mandate is unrealistic and will not make up for the states big green effort that just turned to ash.

You cant really talk about much of a used market today because 1. Major manufactures are still relatively new to the EV game and some are just now entering it so the inventory just isnt there and 2. The technology is evolving so rapidly that some of the earlier attempts at EVs are pretty irrelevant.

So, if you stick with comparing apples to apples, new to new, I would say putting something like this up next to a 2021 Blazer and the EV may be starting to have a completing argument

https://electrek.co/2020/09/23/first-look-v...ore-incentives/

and that is literally their first mainstream entry into the US EV market, only going to improve from here. I think by 2035 it will be a non issue. Kids will see the ICE like they see manual transmissions today.

[horizontally-opposed]

I was wondering when someone was going to comment on the "Big Brother" aspect of the general direction this is taking us as a society
Im not one to prescribe to conspiracy theory's but its hard to ignore the "chipping away" effect the march to EV's then autonomous vehicles (cant call them cars anymore) will have on our personal freedoms & rights to privacy. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/idea.gif)
True as has been said now a couple times, Unless there is some technological breakthrough, Ill probably be dust by the time all this comes to pass. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

Sadly, we're pretty much already there anyway…even in our 914s—unless, that is, we leave our cell phones at home. Now add traffic cameras, Ring cameras, data-logging systems in the car, GPS nav, etc.

[914_teener]

I was wondering when someone was going to comment on the "Big Brother" aspect of the general direction this is taking us as a society
Im not one to prescribe to conspiracy theory's but its hard to ignore the "chipping away" effect the march to EV's then autonomous vehicles (cant call them cars anymore) will have on our personal freedoms & rights to privacy. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/idea.gif)
True as has been said now a couple times, Unless there is some technological breakthrough, Ill probably be dust by the time all this comes to pass. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

Sadly, we're pretty much already there anyway…even in our 914s—unless, that is, we leave our cell phones at home. Now add traffic cameras, Ring cameras, data-logging systems in the car, GPS nav, etc.

My 987.1 has hydraulic steering and a Manual Transmission so I believe in regression to an extent. I don't do Facebook and leave my cell phone off in the Cayman becuase in 06 Porsche figured no one would want to be talking on their phones while driving it. No radio in the R.

It's hard to know what one loses when one lives a life like a commodity.

[bbrock]

Not to further muddy the waters but keep in mind the new generation of "connected cars" not only has the enablers to track where you go, how fast you go there, and has been software enabled to conduct a controlled shutdown of your vehicle if so directed.

I was wondering when someone was going to comment on the "Big Brother" aspect of the general direction this is taking us as a society
Im not one to prescribe to conspiracy theory's but its hard to ignore the "chipping away" effect the march to EV's then autonomous vehicles (cant call them cars anymore) will have on our personal freedoms & rights to privacy. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/idea.gif)
True as has been said now a couple times, Unless there is some technological breakthrough, Ill probably be dust by the time all this comes to pass. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

I'm not a fan of the "Internet of things" and really hate this pied piper society has fallent that lures people with "free" technology the provides convenience for... well... your soul. That said, I'm not sure why we would single out EV as a problem. That same technology has crept into ICE and is just as effective at all of the good and bad that it brings. Sure, Tesla is pushing the envelope because their market has largely been early adopter technophiliacs until recently.

[914werke]

I'm not sure why we would single out EV as a problem.

Id agree, Im more relating to the move generally toward autonomous vehicles and the push by companies like Uber to eliminate the need for personal vehicles altogether.
The video I posted on the 1st page I found interesting as it was a dramatized scenario exploring just this topic. Where, as the title suggests, Motorcycles were the first to be targeted as the low hanging fruit in the march to eliminate ICE vehicles.

[Superhawk996]

It's hard to know what one loses when one lives a life like a commodity.

(IMG:style_emoticons/default/aktion035.gif)

I wouldn't even own a TV if it weren't for it having moved in with my wife 29 years ago. Rarely watch the thing preferring to be in the garage working on cars, motorcycles, or apparently on this forum. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)

Every now and then she finds something interesting for me to watch.

https://www.netflix.com/title/81254224. Highly recommended.

Don't get me wrong I'm not a Luddite. I do use the internet after all. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/wacko.gif) Working in the industry, I'm growing increasingly torn over allowing my labor to be used to further the social engineering that is being inserted into vehicles. Saving lives (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif). Developing cool products that stir the soul (IMG:style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif) Tracking and controlling (IMG:style_emoticons/default/mad.gif)

I'm not sure why we would single out EV as a problem.

Agree. Not just an EV problem.

[Bleyseng]

Talk about bad /stupid timing w..t..f.
Deal with pandemic and economic disaster 1st.
Then cover the " next pressing" thing

Electric cars are a band aid soultion / a joke \ reason rich people can pretended to feel good about themselves. Pretend they are saving the environment...such b.s



If this extends to diesal . and i assume it does?
? Then gavin does realize that every supply used is delivered by a semi truck. Something tells me all truckers will be exempt. Cause without them you wont have the toilet paper to wipe you're ass !

Since 1/5th of our fossil fuel consumption is trucks, Tesla has big plans to change all the trucking industry over to EV trucks. Thats a big market and will reduce air pollution. Yeah, I grew up in the '50's with all the big smog problems so I think clean air is good.

[bbrock]

Talk about bad /stupid timing w..t..f.
Deal with pandemic and economic disaster 1st.
Then cover the " next pressing" thing

Electric cars are a band aid soultion / a joke \ reason rich people can pretended to feel good about themselves. Pretend they are saving the environment...such b.s



If this extends to diesal . and i assume it does?
? Then gavin does realize that every supply used is delivered by a semi truck. Something tells me all truckers will be exempt. Cause without them you wont have the toilet paper to wipe you're ass !

Since 1/5th of our fossil fuel consumption is trucks, Tesla has big plans to change all the trucking industry over to EV trucks. Thats a big market and will reduce air pollution. Yeah, I grew up in the '50's with all the big smog problems so I think clean air is good.

I've been curious why the technology used to make locomotives efficient hasn't transferred to trucks. Locomotives have been hybrid diesel/electric for a long time and can move a ton of freight almost 500 miles on one gallon of diesel. That's 4X more efficient than a semi with 1/3 of the emissions.

[Tdskip]

Forget politics, forget the environment. forget anything other than:
IT ALL COMES DOWN TO $$$$$$.

True, but not for the reasons you are ranting about.

It is indisputable that the price you pay for going to gas does not include its true cost. If you put in all of the impacts to peoples health, the environment and climate it is already more expensive then going electric with today’s technology.

Externalities screw up the real pricing, we’ve been subsidized by the burden we’ve put on future generations.

[rhodyguy]

The power grid will NEVER support a massive switch to EVs. Maybe if they bring ALL of the coal fired generating plants back on line and build plenty of new ones. Start building them now. Not LATER. And EVERYTHING that goes with that. They better figure out what to do with all of the spent solar arrays first. Time to end the tax credits for EVs, have REAL market purchase costs and charge an equvalent of the tax on a gallon of ICE fuel per KWH. Still have to pay for the roads for the EVs to roll on.

[Rav914]

The power grid will NEVER support a massive switch to EVs. Maybe if they bring ALL of the coal fired generating plants back on line and build plenty of new ones. Start building them now. Not LATER. And EVERYTHING that goes with that. They better figure out what to do with all of the spent solar arrays first. Time to end the tax credits for EVs, have REAL market purchase costs and charge an equvalent of the tax on a gallon of ICE fuel per KWH. Still have to pay for the roads for the EVs to roll on.

Spot on. CA can't even keep the lights on, consistently, now they're going to add millions of electric cars that will siphon more energy from the grid? Hilarious. The grid will never take it.

No more tax credits. Real market price.

However.....the '68 911 from Zelectric is pretty cool. And there was an article in the WSJ recently that profiled a couple of shops that retrofitted our vintage cars with electric drives (Zelectric and Lunaz Design). I can see that being a law at some point: all vintage cars retrofitted by 20XX date. The SL Shop in the UK has an electric R107. It's gonna happen I'm afraid.

[Rav914]

Electric '68 911. Good business opportunity. Figure out how to retrofit vintage cars so when it becomes law you're in the lead.

[Tdskip]

Time to end the tax credits for EVs, have REAL market purchase costs

...Real market price...

Funny - don’t see anyone demanding the same for petrol.

Curious that...

[horizontally-opposed]

The move to EVs may actually end up helping the grid.

People aren't going to want to pay for the electricity to charge their cars, even at overnight rates—so they will be more inclined to look at solar installs to go with their EVs.

We're installing solar next week even though we don't have an EV and have no plans to make the leap just yet. It works out to an extra $11/month over the next ten years paid to the solar company instead of PG&E—locking in 2020 rates for a system that generates 107% of our current electricity usage and makes installing a few more panels for a possible EV in the next years really easy. System has a 25-year warranty and a projected useful life of 35~ years. So, we might see 15-25 years of free electricity.

In light of the above, solar has "arrived" in my view. It makes financial sense.

What prompted us to pull the trigger was the fact that our mid-century house has super inefficient 1960s windows. Cost to replace them is $50k to $100k, and even the expensive stuff doesn't look right on a mid-century house. It also creates a bunch of waste for our local landfill. What if, I thought, we no longer have to pay for the electricity to heat and cool the house? My interest in solar grew from there.

We'll be adding a home battery, which is cash out of pocket, but seems like a good hedge after the blackouts. We need to keep our business going, and throwing everything in the freezer out last time was pretty lame. So was watching all of the gas stations on Van Ness in SF close after you couldn't pump gas in other neighboring counties. And now, with the specter of having to keep our windows shut for days or weeks at a time, the option to filter our air in the house is also pretty appealing.

I don't want to depend on PG&E anymore—or wait for the state to fix it for me, for that matter. I look at all this a bit like a chance for America to unite at get something GOOD done. We can do this, individually and collectively.

[rhodyguy]

20" box fans fitted with 20x20 MERV13 electrostatic filters using bungee cords.

What's going to be your average monthly electric bill after the $11 is added in?