QUOTE(billh1963 @ Mar 3 2013, 10:05 AM)
I'm not saying the the bubble is here. I am saying that I believe at some point the prices will climb to the point that buyers/speculators will look elsewhere.
Naturally, once the prices come down they will not reset to the earlier levels. No one will expect a real 914-6 to be $15K or $20K again. However, the prices will come down from whatever peak they hit. The other factor that will contribute to a price drop is the age of the buying group. As we age and drive off into the sunset, our children will cherish the cars of their youth...not ours. Look at the Model T, model, '50's cars, etc....they all go through that cycle.
Will cars of significant history or rarity always be expensive? Sure..a Porsche 550 always be outrageously expensive as well as the Ferrari GTO, Bugatti Royale, etc. The cars that I don't think will maintain this lofty status are the pedestrian cars...356, early 911, etc.
Time will tell which of us are correct.......
As a 356 guy, which I inherited from my Dad, I have to say I think everybody here brought up some good points, but the truth is somewhere in between. The 356 bubble will burst first, as there is not enough new blood coming into the hobby to justify the dizzy prices for all but the rarest cars. The more pedestrian 356's will certainly fall off a bit. Just look at 356 registry meets--the average age is somewhere around 70...
For 914's, my crystal ball tells me that they have about 20 years left before any bubble bursting happens on -6 cars. As a child of the 80's, I remember seeing 914s as the porsche I really wanted, 911's were for lawyers. Now that my generation has the means (economy aside), I think 914s will keep climbing until my generation are too old to mess with them any more.
For the example of Model T's falling off, I think it has more to do with the fact that they are not actually useable as a car by all but the most masochistic of people, which has contributed to the extreme drops in price from where they once were. I know a guy who just buys up really nice examples from estate sales and uses them in parades.