I'm getting tired of these ridiculous prices putting a squeeze on my car purchases. I still want to get a real -6 at some point and would love to pick up an early VW on steroids (911) to add to the stable. When a driver quality 911E has an asking price of $135K I know the market is getting overheated.

I figure another year to two years max and things might get decent again. They won't return to where the were...but, a good drop will make them more reasonable.

best of luck

http://www.goodingco.com/results/realized/?cat=27


they keep going up

I am with you. I have been looking for a Vanagon Westafalia for the last couple years and I have been waiting for that market to gain some sanity again.

Not just high prices there but all over the board and people thinking that because some sell at 35k their non running rusty pile of crap is somehow made of gold. I have seen clean runners go for 2k (though not as much recently) and then the next week see people asking 15k for a complete heap.

People are nuts

I keep hoping it will get better but not holding my breath. Very few interesting cars have been built since 80s, not much I would want to hold on to long term at least. That's why I gravitate to the old stuff anyways, I imagine lots of other people do as well. I doubt the situation will improve much.

For now. Unfortunately, I am old enough to have been through this before...

They flatten with economic downturns but the trend is generally up. I doubt it will ever come down.

Jeezus.. whish I would have bought an early 911 about 5-10 years ago.. !

They absolutely do come down. They just don't return to pre-bubble levels.

There are multiple examples of that...Model T's in the '60's, Ferrari boom of the very late '80's/early '90's, the MOPAR boom/bust of the last few years.

The very rare and elite cars will continue to climb (Ferrari GTO, Porsche RSR, etc.). The "street cars" will be the ones to tumble.

Sorry... I just looked at the Hagerty valuation for a 1973 911. Little-bitty downturn in 2008 at the onset of the recession but nothing but rockets and flowers ever since. I can't speak for Ferrari or others, but my 240Z is similar. Steady upward trend.

You are absolutely right about the "normal" cars that aren't subjected to the overheating cycle...Triumphs, Z-cars, Austin-Healeys, early Loti (lotuses?), etc. are all on the gradual climb.

I think history shows that the cars that appreciate 50%+ year over year are the ones headed for a bust!

In regards to the 914-6 and regular 914's I don't see them coming down one bit...

Sixes are only now just selling for what they should have been some time ago, and 4cyc 914's are still a cheap.

74-89 911's are in the same boat, yes the early 911 market had had an impact but only so much to bring them to market correct prices.

I think the only corrections we will see in the Porsche world is a "small" correction to some early driver quality 911's purchased in the last year or so.

I also think we are going to see a big jump in some of the more rare models 904,906 ect.

Can you say "Miami Vice"? Damned Daytona & Testarosa

Click to view attachment

I don't think thats likely to happen as we have seen a bit of a $$ drop back a few years ago with the economy fall and then a kind of hold till now. As with a number of other cars catching up and well likely level off somewhat, also the more cars that over years have gone to dust, chopped up for parts, and modified to a point that they are in a different category. As with most collectable cars only the best low miles and originality well likely pull the real dollars with the rarer cars, of corse leading the pack 914 6, GT have for some time shown sings of climbing in value as the most desirable and will tend to be the strongest.
I look (oh now I show my age) back at some cars that I have owned over the years and if I just would have held on to them well,, 1952 XK 120 I bought for $600 dollars sold for $900 thought I made a killing, Ca Daytona Spider I traded for a 3 Corvettes and 2 trucks now Big $$ to many others!
A very rich man once told me he never sold any thing as once the value has dropped it generally just tends to go up!

I think $100K 914-6's (if they consistently hit that level) will come down.

Nice quality (fewer every day) 914-4's will continue to rise. They never overheated.

As I mentioned earlier, the rarest of the rare and desirable (like Ferrari 250GTO's...and, in your example, 904/906) will continue to appreciate more rapidly than other models

I don't think the downward decline of British cars is steep enough...

Seriously, some are of some value, some are fantastic, but most are poorly manufactured crap. This is why the 240Z was able to totally redefine and invigorate the sports car market in the US and elsewhere.

Not sure many 914-6s are hitting 100k on a regular basis....

I'd say 40-100k is a safe range for original sixes and I bet is stays that way until it goes up again...

SirAndy's tub which he was asking $5K for is probably worth $10K now...

I really want a Series I XKE OTS....unfortunately, they keep appreciating faster than I can print money!

It's all about supply and demand. . . there were only 3360 Six's made, 1788 to the US and who really knows how many have been destroyed / modified by now. . That makes original condition, matching number Six's remaining anywhere a pretty scarce commodity by anyone's estimate. Another variable is that as the supply of exceptional cars declines, the population of people wanting 'collector car's is steadily increasing.

It would take global collapse of the world economy to make any drastic affect on the price of collectible cars in general. Even in recent lean times [like 2000 and 2008 stock market declines] prices have overall continued to climb. .You only need to look at the current auction prices of even the most common 356's [with over 75,000 made] to see where this is all headed, . Same goes for the early 911's where around 80,000 early [1965-73] were made . they are now generally over 100K for anything really nice. Even the lowly 911T is up there. .

Add to all this the ever dwindling supply of OE Six parts making restorations much harder to accomplish to factory standards. . and much more expensive to source.
Consider that on Ebay, a set of nice Six heat exchangers went for $4000, and well used Six tool kits are around $3000 gives you a bleak outlook that 6 parts can be found at a reasonable price anymore.

I see no reason why at some point, 914 Porsches won't start to really rise also. They offer an affordable fun driver with unusual design and heritage. I can't believe how many people are drawn to my garage as they walk or drive by. Everybody seems to have a 914 "story." They seem to be an underdog/love-able cult car. Always a thumbs up, a "cool car" comment about mine, and it's kind of a piece of shit. (for now....) Groups like 914World are invaluable to guys like me who are new to these fabulous/frustrating machines.

Time will tell......

[/quote]
I think history shows that the cars that appreciate 50%+ year over year are the ones headed for a bust!
[/quote]

I dont disagree - but will they fall more than your original purchase price? If not, then they are still a good buy.

I jumped in the pool last month and bought a car purely as an investment. I have no interest in it other than it's potential value - and to maximize that potential value, the car can almost not be driven. It is not very gratifying.

It is the first time I have ever done such a thing and it gave me pretty much the same overall satifaction as buying a decent performing stock - nothing like the fun of buying a car because you simply love it.

I think there may be fluctuations (maybe fairly significant), but I am not convinced there will be a full blown busted bubble.

I love these discussions. I actually feel like I learn alot every time they come up!

You know a market is getting overheated when there are more "WTB" ads on craigslist than actual cars for sale!

Jags are doing very very well right now. A decent series 1 has been averaging six figures for a while. In the past year the nicer cars are up easily 30%.

My friend bought a 73 911S for 34K about 10 years ago and I said he was insane! He told me just wait and see, this might be the last chance I have to get one. He was right.

I said the 914-6 would see 100 grand for the right example 5 years ago. I think we are on target.

When crazy wealthy people bid up old VW buses up to $225K this fuels the fire.

With all sanity included, the German Craze is right where that Mopar Boom was - Huge Money for the Super Cars, Crazy Money for Hemis, Very Big Money for Regular Stuff. The Super Mopars have just maintained those huge purchase prices or have dropped, Hemis a big dip and regular cars see-ya! I don't see 73 Carreras or '69 911S' being big losers, but someone that buys a 911T for big money is nuts. I sell parts for Early Camaros & Chevelles and I see values going up, but there are always deals to be had. And a lot of them for sale. Busts have happened in Banking, Real Estate, Stock Market and Cars! People said that we would never see a Depression again, but I think the last 6 Years put a hurt in a lot of peoples wallets. Disposible Income is shrinking for most Americans, but there are those 1%, heck 15% Percenters who can throw money at this trend. When the Craze slows (British Cars) and it will, who do the 15%s Sell their Cars to? Not to the working man, not a 72 911T for $120k. So for awhile to other Rich Cronies til the Trend completely wears off and then it's worth $70

The 914-6 Price Climb that I have seen in the last year since I got rid of my "GT" has been unbelievable to me and I have been around this a long time. In '08 I bought 4 914-6s, if I had just put them away, not put a penny into them besides Insurance, they would be worth 4 Times what I paid for them. Obviously I like them, but there is no way I would pay what is the Retail for a -6 now.

Nice 914-4s are in a very competitive market (British, Japanese, American Muscle) which has kept the price down. Sentiment towards 914s from the Porsche Cliche seems to have turned for the better. I think the Top Examples of 914 2.0 will keep a slow but steady climb. Regular cars I don't think will climb much once you figure in Restoration/Maintenance Costs.

I don't know what the Market or will be for Conversions . On one hand, if throw a lot of money, they could be a Rich Mans Toy (Imagine crazy rich drunk dude seeing Erc's car in Pano, offers Erc $200,000, you've got to think Erc's buying a New Guitar soon.), but if it's a ShadeTree Car, it's a low price. Nice Conversions have been Flat or No Sales lately.

Please excuse the non Porsche content but it's interesting you mention the Camaros. .In early 1970, I bought a 69 Z28 . it was right at $4800 new. . . I sold it in 2000. It had 72K miles and was all original. . thought I made a good deal at $35,000. . . I saw it about 5 years ago {2008} at a Barrett Jackson auction. . went for $112,000. who would have thought. . . . just takes the right audience. . .
Another car I should have kept. . .

One of my co-workers talks about the stock market dropping "soon" and I have the same thoughts about cars. They will probably drop, who knows, maybe 10%? 20%? But if the values go up another 50% between now and then, are you not still money ahead by buying now? That is why it's so hard to time these things.

Buy a 911S for $50k now, the value goes up to $100k then drops 25%...you're still up 50%!

Where are you going to find a 911S for $50k? The 69S I had would be worth around $200k

Click to view attachment

I wonder what this Clapped out "Real" Euro Carrera would fetch? I Sold it & it went to Europe

Click to view attachment

I say don't worry about it. If your a dealer or a flipper you will always find a deal and the one born every minute to sell it to. Stuff is out there. Us guys that have no money sometimes have to buy the junkyard dogs and the castoffs to get what we want. Sweat equity and buying parts over time will make the hobby affordable if you can stay on task and don't loose interest.

Collector car level cars are a great tax shelter for guys over bidding at the big auctions. I say let them play. It only helps the rest of us reach for the stars when we see the gavel fall.

one sold last weekend at Amelia for 236,000 (coupe )

Even though our cars are nit real Porsches, look at the number made. With such low production the laws of supply and demand will apply. As long as the buyers have the cash, and want the cars, the ceiling is pretty high.
Short of a economic downturn, I think we are still on the upside of the bubble.

uh oh...

I was using random numbers to explain my point....but since you asked:

911S for $16,500

911S for $38900

911S for $44500

Just because SOME 911S's are $200k doesn't mean ALL of them are.

Early 911S long hoods are a completely different $ story than mid year short hoods. When everyone talks about the S, T, E's ect sky high prices, they are talking early long hood. Even early 912's are fetching late 911 prices.

exactly, but that shows the Tag-Along on a Bubble or Wave - a mid year short-hood was a throw away car, due to no power and the early ones (74-76) Rust! For them to be considered a $40k car is Crazy!

The other thing that Drives the Market are New Car Prices - if someone can afford an Audi R-8 V-10 @ $195k he's probably going to have a Vintage Car or 2 in his Garage

It starts with one model & when that gets too high & people can't afford it then the next desirable in line goes up & so on.

It started with the 904 & Spyder, then moved to anything with a four cam, then Speedsters & kept going. Now Junk yard cars have become "restoration candidates".

85% of Projects Never get Finished!

"Experts Chime In"!??

The Experts Guide to High Dollar Collectible Cars of the Future

I'm sure people have said the same thing about 914's in the past...but a "six figure 924"? That'll be the day!