okay with the hurrican i have been watching a lot of fox news. according to opec they will pump more oil to help. here is the crazy part opec is going to hold a meeting next month to figure out why gas prices are as high as they are, they stated the opec pumps and sells the oil at 12 per barrel.
so who ever is buying the oil at 12 per barrel is marking it up to a current price of 67 a barrel, i wonder if this is along the lines of enron, artificially marking up the oil.
i have read a few things lately about oil wells, some thing like 70 % of the wells that were dry 10 to 20 years ago now have oil in them again, and but that they mean full flow pumping, not partial.
right now there is a 55 billion gallon oil surpluse ( just heard it ) in storage in this country.
Full Version: gas prices
I wonder if that is how the war is being financed?
Naw....no big secret....we're just getting dicked.
Doan pee on my boots and tell it's raining...tell me like it is...."we" are screwing you because "we" can....I would respect a comment like that.....
Doan pee on my boots and tell it's raining...tell me like it is...."we" are screwing you because "we" can....I would respect a comment like that.....
Come on' guys... just good old greed, nothin else.
Oil is a commodity. It is traded on various exhanges including the NYMEX, same as natural gas and heating oil.
My company burns about 800,000 Dth a year in NG. That's about $400,000 to $500,000 per month at last years prices. Last year NG was about $6.00 / Dth. Today it settled at about $11.00 / Dth. Do we really think it now costs $5.00 more to drill and supply NG in one year
It is F'ing BS - I F'ing kid you not, this could put my company under... completely
Oil is a commodity. It is traded on various exhanges including the NYMEX, same as natural gas and heating oil.
My company burns about 800,000 Dth a year in NG. That's about $400,000 to $500,000 per month at last years prices. Last year NG was about $6.00 / Dth. Today it settled at about $11.00 / Dth. Do we really think it now costs $5.00 more to drill and supply NG in one year
It is F'ing BS - I F'ing kid you not, this could put my company under... completely
There are "emergency reserves", which are held by the government, and Bush has been talking about releasing some to help smooth things out. 55B gallons, btw, is 6 months worth at current usage. It's not nearly as much as it sounds like.
The people doing the "marking up" are oil traders. The price of oil is set on various commodities markets around the world. The $70/barrel price is a futures price, which is a contract to buy a set amount of oil on a certain date. An oil company buys such a contract to guarantee a price for several months down the road, so they can do long-term planning. Oil traders sell such contracts. Enron was such an oil trader. Everyone is now convinced oil supplies will become tighter in the coming months, partly because they feel supplies will fall from Arab fist-shaking, and because demand isn't going to go down, prices have to go up.
Here's a graph showing oil prices in 2005 dollars.
You can see we still haven't even approached the peak. In 1973, when the first OPEC oil embargo hit after the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, the prices rose only because people were convinced oil supplies were going to be reduced permanently. More panic ensured in the late 70s, partly caused by superinflation from Carter's economic policies. After a while, everyone calmed down and the prices fell to a price only a bit above what they were before the panics started. Another short scare in 1990 caused a near doubling in price in days, that only lasted a few days. Recently (over the past few years) oil prices have only just kept up with inflation, after years of being well BELOW inflation. Only in the past few weeks have they risen faster than inflation (not shown on that graph), which suggests they'll come down again soon, to roughly what it should be after inflation is accounted for. Squinting at that graph, that looks like gas prices will, therefore, come back down to $2/gal or thereabouts, but won't likely fall below that.
The people doing the "marking up" are oil traders. The price of oil is set on various commodities markets around the world. The $70/barrel price is a futures price, which is a contract to buy a set amount of oil on a certain date. An oil company buys such a contract to guarantee a price for several months down the road, so they can do long-term planning. Oil traders sell such contracts. Enron was such an oil trader. Everyone is now convinced oil supplies will become tighter in the coming months, partly because they feel supplies will fall from Arab fist-shaking, and because demand isn't going to go down, prices have to go up.
Here's a graph showing oil prices in 2005 dollars.
You can see we still haven't even approached the peak. In 1973, when the first OPEC oil embargo hit after the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, the prices rose only because people were convinced oil supplies were going to be reduced permanently. More panic ensured in the late 70s, partly caused by superinflation from Carter's economic policies. After a while, everyone calmed down and the prices fell to a price only a bit above what they were before the panics started. Another short scare in 1990 caused a near doubling in price in days, that only lasted a few days. Recently (over the past few years) oil prices have only just kept up with inflation, after years of being well BELOW inflation. Only in the past few weeks have they risen faster than inflation (not shown on that graph), which suggests they'll come down again soon, to roughly what it should be after inflation is accounted for. Squinting at that graph, that looks like gas prices will, therefore, come back down to $2/gal or thereabouts, but won't likely fall below that.
Please don't rely on the media (fox, cnn, npr, etc) to do your thinking. They ~sometimes~ make mistakes. 
no the 55 billion gallons is privately held by the refinerys and private parties, it does NOT include the US government stash, it is the surplus that they have had to hold on to because they bought it and dont/cant/want to sell or use it.
the us gonvernmet has enough oil held to run the whole country for a year at current uses.
and i never use the news to make discions, i do other research. we had cnn ( commie news network ) on in another room, and happen to hear them say something to the effect of oil prices should go to 100 per barrel, just so people use less. they did not say should as in it will, they said it as in if they could make it cost that much. then the next story was about gas prices and they said how this wont effect the rich, it would only effect the poor
the us gonvernmet has enough oil held to run the whole country for a year at current uses.
and i never use the news to make discions, i do other research. we had cnn ( commie news network ) on in another room, and happen to hear them say something to the effect of oil prices should go to 100 per barrel, just so people use less. they did not say should as in it will, they said it as in if they could make it cost that much. then the next story was about gas prices and they said how this wont effect the rich, it would only effect the poor
| QUOTE (olav @ Aug 29 2005, 01:55 PM) |
| I wonder if that is how the war is being financed? |
That's it! Bush caused the hurricane by not signing the Kyoto agreement to jack up the price of our oil to pay for the war for Iraqi oil so that the Iraqis can drive around for a nickel per gallon.
Damn you guys have it sooooooo bad 
. Fuel over here is 92.9pence ($1.67) per litre.
There are 0.26 litres in a US gallon - I'll let you do the math
. Fuel over here is 92.9pence ($1.67) per litre.There are 0.26 litres in a US gallon - I'll let you do the math
so who's ready for life after the crash then? 
Isn't this likely just business as usual in the corporate scheme of things? When will enough be enough?
This and other excess profit schemes is really our own fault. Gas went up back in 1973, people started buying cars because of the high MPG and then a few years later, a vehicle only those wealthy enough to afford becomes the vessel of choice for all the wanna be's. That is the way it works. Later these millions of what is now called yuppies start bitching about the cost.
Same crap when it involves real estate and home prices. You can control what things cost by just refusing to buy it. When you don't buy, the prices fall. It's called business economy but really I don't think anyone can control their gotta have the biggest and most expensive home, car, tv, yard or whatever so the complaining is all just wind to the price setters.
Learn to say no way willl I pay that sucker's gouging me price. A reasonable person who wants America to still be the place the world would love to live in will only pay what is the real value of a product and not a cent more. Do that and you can afford all you ever dreamed in the long run.
Of course this has nothing to do with the 914. It's always been a bargain to own or drive.
This and other excess profit schemes is really our own fault. Gas went up back in 1973, people started buying cars because of the high MPG and then a few years later, a vehicle only those wealthy enough to afford becomes the vessel of choice for all the wanna be's. That is the way it works. Later these millions of what is now called yuppies start bitching about the cost.
Same crap when it involves real estate and home prices. You can control what things cost by just refusing to buy it. When you don't buy, the prices fall. It's called business economy but really I don't think anyone can control their gotta have the biggest and most expensive home, car, tv, yard or whatever so the complaining is all just wind to the price setters.
Learn to say no way willl I pay that sucker's gouging me price. A reasonable person who wants America to still be the place the world would love to live in will only pay what is the real value of a product and not a cent more. Do that and you can afford all you ever dreamed in the long run.
Of course this has nothing to do with the 914. It's always been a bargain to own or drive.
| QUOTE |
| Bush caused the hurricane |
ok, ok,
its not all his fault.
it's a bit like diamonds really. you go into a jewelry store and they're selling a nice 2-carat beauty for several thousand bucks. at that price, it must be really rare, right? nope! debeer's (which controls 70% of the diamond market) has vaults and vaults full of millions of the sparkly little beauties. diamonds (like oil) are expensive only because a false atmosphere of scarcity is created in order to ensure high prices.
~a
~a
Just wondering... Did my early Sunday AM canyon tour. Filled up with 91 (top grade in CA) @ $2.97 gal. While there, noticed 2 families with vans towing big HP ski boats. Didn't wait around after my 11 gallon stop, but they had to be spending some serious $$ to fill all that for a day of fun in the sun.
What price will it take to stop us???
And thanks for the stats, lapuwali. Helps to see it that way.
What price will it take to stop us???
And thanks for the stats, lapuwali. Helps to see it that way.
| QUOTE (AndyC @ Aug 29 2005, 02:07 PM) |
| Damn you guys have it sooooooo bad . Fuel over here is 92.9pence ($1.67) per litre. There are 0.26 litres in a US gallon - I'll let you do the math |
$6.3 sumthing/gallon USD....
We're still getting dicked.
I typed something but then deleted it....after all, we are a patriotic and family-oriented BBS and GINT is just sitting there with his thumb poised over the delete key.
and GINT is just sitting there with his thumb poised over the delete key.
| QUOTE (AndyC @ Aug 29 2005, 02:07 PM) |
| Damn you guys have it sooooooo bad . Fuel over here is 92.9pence ($1.67) per litre. There are 0.26 litres in a US gallon - I'll let you do the math |
Andy,I had an office in the UK for about 10 years. I never understood why fuel was so high there with the UK being an net exporter. The UK has large coal, natural gas, and oil reserves; primary energy production accounts for 10% of GDP, one of the highest shares of any industrial nation.
Oil - exports: 1.498 million bbl/day (2001)
Great place! Made many good friends in England.
Now it is our turn to get hosed..... Cheers!
Dan
i'd like to put out a public apology.
My recent oil leak has caused gas prices to surge. OPEC and W couldnt have anticipated the spike in oil use from my house and it caused a nationwide panic. My oil leak is fixed though, so the prices will get back down to normal. Again, Im sorry for the inconvenience and I will alert all the credible media (fox).
My recent oil leak has caused gas prices to surge. OPEC and W couldnt have anticipated the spike in oil use from my house and it caused a nationwide panic. My oil leak is fixed though, so the prices will get back down to normal. Again, Im sorry for the inconvenience and I will alert all the credible media (fox).
| QUOTE (MattR @ Aug 29 2005, 04:10 PM) |
| i'd like to put out a public apology. My recent oil leak has caused gas prices to surge. OPEC and W couldnt have anticipated the spike in oil use from my house and it caused a nationwide panic. My oil leak is fixed though, so the prices will get back down to normal. Again, Im sorry for the inconvenience and I will alert all the credible media (fox). |
clean up your driveway
| QUOTE (914GT @ Aug 29 2005, 02:03 PM) | ||
That's it! Bush caused the hurricane by not signing the Kyoto agreement to jack up the price of our oil to pay for the war for Iraqi oil so that the Iraqis can drive around for a nickel per gallon. |
You are probably right.
Hot air is a main ingredient of hurricanes per the Weather Channel. LOL
Oil prices being high are due to the raise in demand (more folks with bigger cars, SUV's, in many nations, huge and rapid increase in demand in china and india), Other factors effect price: Political stuff like that dictator Chevez in Venezuala, he sells below market to his marxist buddies like castro's cuba, and threatens to turn off American supply (while at the same time signing big long term oil deals with commie china) Venezuala supplies up to 1/4 of American oil use. We know the mad mullahs in Iran don't like us, and they control their supply, and how they sell it too. These mad mullahs that run Iran are really rotten folks, no womens rights, beatings for minor infractions to islam, etc..
So you see the USA has undependable sources that can effect our oil prices, unfortunately we in the USA like many industrial nations depend on too much oil, so much so that we end up needing oil from or enemies or hostail nations. We are with are demand puttting the fate of oil oil in the hands of bad guys. We are building up nations with oil money that are vary evil.
There is a limited supply, suppose we could pump faster, but we are told the wells will run dry eventually, then what, prices will really skyrocket.
We do have reserves here, but not enough to keep us going for long at our rate of consumption. every bit we save will reduce the price. consumption will reduce as folks drive better more mpg cars. Soon oneday our 25 - 30 mpg 914's will be considered gas guzzlers, when new cars will hit 50 -60 mpg rutinely. If price stay high or go up, this will happen.
other factors are tax on gas and oil. (bet the saudi royal family, the mad mullahs in iran, and chavez all get a nice cut from every bit sold.
local regulations increase gasoline proces with all the specialty gas required in differnt areas or time of year.
we have not built new refineres for years in the USA, so we even have to import gasoline from other nations.
lots of things effect the price of gas and oil. the muslim terrorists sent by iran syria saudi, etc.. in Iraq are blowing up oil production making less than when saddam was in charge, but back in saddams day, some UN guys were skimming off the oil sales, as did saddam himself.
bottom line is we need to reduce our consumption, maybe in a few years as the auto fleet changes we will average 60 mpg and $5 per gallon gas will not bug us cause the price per mile would be better.
probalby need to look at our coal reserves, make deals with canada, as i beleive they have lots of coal, and they are friendly democratic folks, (rather see my money go too them rather than a dictator, or mullah) We have plenty of coal. nuclear should be considered if very safe designs can be mass produced. safe nuclear power on a large scale would really help, but ther are issues, technical ones like waste can be handled,
Yes we need to reduce use of oil, or just take it all over, but then we have a china that wouldn't like its supply take by us, so they would put up a fight, they are building up their military with the money they get using cheap labor to make products the USA buys, the evil chinese marxist's are building a big military to counter any US use of force to take the oil from the other bad dictator / mullah bad guys, china is getting to be more powerful, and has bad intent.
againt the solution is to stop using their oil, make the oil worthless by stopping demand.
oil should only be used to make chemicals, and plastics, not burned, if we didn't burn it, we would have more than enough.
that was a very neat chart I like it showing both actual and adjusted prices of gas. Those of us that are old enough recall when prices jumped in the first arab oil imbargo. This big increase is relitivily like the arab imbargo, I get the same milage today (I am even driving the same car) It hurts, but maybe a 60 mpg engine conversion for the 914 should be considered???? that woudl help ease the pain of the price increases
So you see the USA has undependable sources that can effect our oil prices, unfortunately we in the USA like many industrial nations depend on too much oil, so much so that we end up needing oil from or enemies or hostail nations. We are with are demand puttting the fate of oil oil in the hands of bad guys. We are building up nations with oil money that are vary evil.
There is a limited supply, suppose we could pump faster, but we are told the wells will run dry eventually, then what, prices will really skyrocket.
We do have reserves here, but not enough to keep us going for long at our rate of consumption. every bit we save will reduce the price. consumption will reduce as folks drive better more mpg cars. Soon oneday our 25 - 30 mpg 914's will be considered gas guzzlers, when new cars will hit 50 -60 mpg rutinely. If price stay high or go up, this will happen.
other factors are tax on gas and oil. (bet the saudi royal family, the mad mullahs in iran, and chavez all get a nice cut from every bit sold.
local regulations increase gasoline proces with all the specialty gas required in differnt areas or time of year.
we have not built new refineres for years in the USA, so we even have to import gasoline from other nations.
lots of things effect the price of gas and oil. the muslim terrorists sent by iran syria saudi, etc.. in Iraq are blowing up oil production making less than when saddam was in charge, but back in saddams day, some UN guys were skimming off the oil sales, as did saddam himself.
bottom line is we need to reduce our consumption, maybe in a few years as the auto fleet changes we will average 60 mpg and $5 per gallon gas will not bug us cause the price per mile would be better.
probalby need to look at our coal reserves, make deals with canada, as i beleive they have lots of coal, and they are friendly democratic folks, (rather see my money go too them rather than a dictator, or mullah) We have plenty of coal. nuclear should be considered if very safe designs can be mass produced. safe nuclear power on a large scale would really help, but ther are issues, technical ones like waste can be handled,
Yes we need to reduce use of oil, or just take it all over, but then we have a china that wouldn't like its supply take by us, so they would put up a fight, they are building up their military with the money they get using cheap labor to make products the USA buys, the evil chinese marxist's are building a big military to counter any US use of force to take the oil from the other bad dictator / mullah bad guys, china is getting to be more powerful, and has bad intent.
againt the solution is to stop using their oil, make the oil worthless by stopping demand.
oil should only be used to make chemicals, and plastics, not burned, if we didn't burn it, we would have more than enough.
that was a very neat chart I like it showing both actual and adjusted prices of gas. Those of us that are old enough recall when prices jumped in the first arab oil imbargo. This big increase is relitivily like the arab imbargo, I get the same milage today (I am even driving the same car) It hurts, but maybe a 60 mpg engine conversion for the 914 should be considered???? that woudl help ease the pain of the price increases
| QUOTE (MattR @ Aug 29 2005, 04:10 PM) |
| i'd like to put out a public apology. My recent oil leak has caused gas prices to surge. OPEC and W couldnt have anticipated the spike in oil use from my house and it caused a nationwide panic. My oil leak is fixed though, so the prices will get back down to normal. Again, Im sorry for the inconvenience and I will alert all the credible media (fox). |
Still need more shop towels from the hospital Matt?? Lisa
The main point of that graph was to show that, until very recently, the thing driving the oil prices up for the past several years has simply been the price of oil catching up with normal inflation. If the price of oil exactly matched the rate of inflation, the red and black lines on that graph would be the same. Where the black line is below the red line, oil is unsually cheap, and one should expect the price to rise eventually. Where the two lines are close together, the price of oil can simply be explained by the same macroeconomic factors that drive ALL prices up. This has been true for several years now. Very recently (the past couple of months), the price of oil has risen faster than inflation, which suggests it will either fall again, or inflation will rise and overall prices of everything will rise to meet the oil price. Since the price of oil is, to some degree, factored into the price of most everything else, the latter case is most likely.
We're basically just paying the price now for years of having excessively cheap oil, and prices have caught up with what they should have been all along. The only thing that would keep oil cheap relative to inflation long-term would be the cost of production falling for factors like technological innovation, or an increasing supply, or a decreasing demand. If you look at actual histories of proven reserves, they've actually INCREASED over the past 20-30 years (I wish I had a graph for this). Despite rapid increases in demand, we keep finding more oil OR we discover newer cheaper ways to extract oil we knew about, but couldn't reach (or couldn't reach economically). Also, as the price of oil goes up, we paradoxically increase the proven reserves, as it suddenly becomes "economic" to extract oil that was uneconomic yesterday at lower prices. Many Texas oil fields shut down in the early 80s as the price of oil fell back off the artificial peaks created by OPEC in the early 70s. This crippled the Texas economy for years. The oil is still there, it's just too expensive to pull out. Oil prices have to rise substantially above inflation for awhile before Texas becomes a major oil producer again, or we have to dream up some newer, cheaper way to get it out. It hasn't, so Texas is still sitting on a lot of oil no one is willing to pull out of the ground.
This is a fact lost on the guy that keeps trying to "prove" that we're near or just past the "peak" for oil. This same guy first predicted the peak would be in the 1970s, and has been slowly pushing his peak forward every few years. I'm sure I'll be in the ground for a long time before we actually reach this peak.
We're basically just paying the price now for years of having excessively cheap oil, and prices have caught up with what they should have been all along. The only thing that would keep oil cheap relative to inflation long-term would be the cost of production falling for factors like technological innovation, or an increasing supply, or a decreasing demand. If you look at actual histories of proven reserves, they've actually INCREASED over the past 20-30 years (I wish I had a graph for this). Despite rapid increases in demand, we keep finding more oil OR we discover newer cheaper ways to extract oil we knew about, but couldn't reach (or couldn't reach economically). Also, as the price of oil goes up, we paradoxically increase the proven reserves, as it suddenly becomes "economic" to extract oil that was uneconomic yesterday at lower prices. Many Texas oil fields shut down in the early 80s as the price of oil fell back off the artificial peaks created by OPEC in the early 70s. This crippled the Texas economy for years. The oil is still there, it's just too expensive to pull out. Oil prices have to rise substantially above inflation for awhile before Texas becomes a major oil producer again, or we have to dream up some newer, cheaper way to get it out. It hasn't, so Texas is still sitting on a lot of oil no one is willing to pull out of the ground.
This is a fact lost on the guy that keeps trying to "prove" that we're near or just past the "peak" for oil. This same guy first predicted the peak would be in the 1970s, and has been slowly pushing his peak forward every few years. I'm sure I'll be in the ground for a long time before we actually reach this peak.
| QUOTE (MattR @ Aug 29 2005, 07:10 PM) |
| i'd like to put out a public apology. My recent oil leak has caused gas prices to surge. OPEC and W couldnt have anticipated the spike in oil use from my house and it caused a nationwide panic. My oil leak is fixed though, so the prices will get back down to normal. Again, Im sorry for the inconvenience and I will alert all the credible media (fox). |
I needed a funny!M
okay, i dont see some of the crap over seas as being the problem, opec sells the gas to who ever can buy it for 12 a barrel, so opec does not make that much, compaired to the price here. so who marks it up, not opec.
also i have read a bunch of stuff about the wells filling back up after 10 to 20 years, so it might not be a finite of a resource as we have been told.
now lets take texas, go drive thru that state and you will see a lot of wells shut off, they say it is because it costs more to get the oil out of the ground than its worth
, if they can pump it and sell it for 12 a barrel in the middle east, why not here, lets say the labor costs twice as much, that still does not make it cost 67 a barrel. i would bet the texas pumps are shut off so they can get more for the ones they have running. and why use up thier oil if they dont have to.
as for demand i believe that is bull too, if that was true then thier would be shortages.
its is as simple as they will just keep inflating prices and blaming it on other stuff ( hurricans, terroists ) until they see a drop in use, which they wont.
the news today said that a lot of people in the country now are starting to cut back on other stuff so they can afford to go to work. they are finding a lot of single parent families are not doing vactions and not buying thier kids new cloths for the school year because they spent the extra money on gas over the last year.
i would be a fan on a wider sweeping gas guzzler tax and to lower the tax for normal cars, i mean the hummer 2 gets 8 mpg, and they lied about it and said it 12 so it would not have a guzzler tax, make it so real world testing determins it.
i pay about 50 cents per gallon tax on gas in maryland, and thats just to the state
also i have read a bunch of stuff about the wells filling back up after 10 to 20 years, so it might not be a finite of a resource as we have been told.
now lets take texas, go drive thru that state and you will see a lot of wells shut off, they say it is because it costs more to get the oil out of the ground than its worth
, if they can pump it and sell it for 12 a barrel in the middle east, why not here, lets say the labor costs twice as much, that still does not make it cost 67 a barrel. i would bet the texas pumps are shut off so they can get more for the ones they have running. and why use up thier oil if they dont have to.as for demand i believe that is bull too, if that was true then thier would be shortages.
its is as simple as they will just keep inflating prices and blaming it on other stuff ( hurricans, terroists ) until they see a drop in use, which they wont.
the news today said that a lot of people in the country now are starting to cut back on other stuff so they can afford to go to work. they are finding a lot of single parent families are not doing vactions and not buying thier kids new cloths for the school year because they spent the extra money on gas over the last year.
i would be a fan on a wider sweeping gas guzzler tax and to lower the tax for normal cars, i mean the hummer 2 gets 8 mpg, and they lied about it and said it 12 so it would not have a guzzler tax, make it so real world testing determins it.
i pay about 50 cents per gallon tax on gas in maryland, and thats just to the state
Our biggest problem is refining.
We have a daily refining deficit.. that's compounding intrest... backwards.
Oil continues to go up over the long haul. Short term, supply will catch up a small amount, the price will come down around... somewhere in the mid/upper 20% range, then the slightest tic in demand, will set off racing gains in prices, again.
It's not the oil I worry about.
M
We have a daily refining deficit.. that's compounding intrest... backwards.
Oil continues to go up over the long haul. Short term, supply will catch up a small amount, the price will come down around... somewhere in the mid/upper 20% range, then the slightest tic in demand, will set off racing gains in prices, again.
It's not the oil I worry about.
M
| QUOTE (MattR @ Aug 29 2005, 03:10 PM) |
| i'd like to put out a public apology. My recent oil leak has caused gas prices to surge. OPEC and W couldnt have anticipated the spike in oil use from my house and it caused a nationwide panic. My oil leak is fixed though, so the prices will get back down to normal. Again, Im sorry for the inconvenience and I will alert all the credible media (fox). |
your new 914club name is: Valdez
| QUOTE (PKRMONY @ Aug 29 2005, 08:17 PM) | ||
your new 914club name is: Valdez |
ask matt about the exxon valdez incident on my driveway....
| QUOTE (scott thacher @ Aug 29 2005, 06:40 PM) |
| okay, i dont see some of the crap over seas as being the problem, opec sells the gas to who ever can buy it for 12 a barrel, so opec does not make that much, compaired to the price here. so who marks it up, not opec. also i have read a bunch of stuff about the wells filling back up after 10 to 20 years, so it might not be a finite of a resource as we have been told. now lets take texas, go drive thru that state and you will see a lot of wells shut off, they say it is because it costs more to get the oil out of the ground than its worth , if they can pump it and sell it for 12 a barrel in the middle east, why not here, lets say the labor costs twice as much, that still does not make it cost 67 a barrel. i would bet the texas pumps are shut off so they can get more for the ones they have running. and why use up thier oil if they dont have to.as for demand i believe that is bull too, if that was true then thier would be shortages. its is as simple as they will just keep inflating prices and blaming it on other stuff ( hurricans, terroists ) until they see a drop in use, which they wont. the news today said that a lot of people in the country now are starting to cut back on other stuff so they can afford to go to work. they are finding a lot of single parent families are not doing vactions and not buying thier kids new cloths for the school year because they spent the extra money on gas over the last year. i would be a fan on a wider sweeping gas guzzler tax and to lower the tax for normal cars, i mean the hummer 2 gets 8 mpg, and they lied about it and said it 12 so it would not have a guzzler tax, make it so real world testing determins it. i pay about 50 cents per gallon tax on gas in maryland, and thats just to the state |
It's really a combination of things. Artificially low oil prices for a long time due to available cheap reserves. Reduced refining capacity and increased demand from new markets (i.e. China, Far East). These are the major factors that have increased the cost of oil. Plus, those big fat reserves we have been pumping since the 70's are not producing as much as they were 30 years ago.
The Arab oil has always been cheaper to extract than the U.S. reserves.
Scott, i grew up in Texas. If those wells are not operating they are either 1. Dry 2. unprofitable to operate in the current market 3. unprofitable to operate in any market.
The cost of drilling is very different depending on where you drill, how deep you need to go and what type of geological formation you are drilling into. also, what type of equipment is needed to extract. If that were true that the same would apply to electrical contracting. It doesn't. Because each job has it's particular level of difficulty.
When the prices of oil rise wells that were once unprofitable to operate can be 'uncapped' many of these wells are categorized as "reserves" If oil companies are sitting on 55B gallons or 1 years supply of oil they would get eaten up with storage costs. Most of the oil in storage is simply short term waiting for refining.
I'm as unhappy with the higher prices as anyone. i just don't like to see people getting misled about the "big picture" by the inept US Media
Ah bullshit.....we're just getting DICKED
Record profits, record prices and we're rolling over and taking it with a tiny inaudible whimper and tear in our eye....
Plain out and out greed....
Record profits, record prices and we're rolling over and taking it with a tiny inaudible whimper and tear in our eye....
Plain out and out greed....
BTW....there are wells here in the local area that have been shut in for years.....oil hit 60 bucks....cachunk, cachunk.....puppies are up and running, pumping and a burning.....it's low grade sulfer rich thick nasty crap, best suitable as asphalt, but it's workable and will yield some high end light oil....
Oil Schmoil ......
Stinky Greedy Fuchs ....
Start Shipping Iraq Crude... Now !
It's pay-back Time!
- M
Stinky Greedy Fuchs ....
Start Shipping Iraq Crude... Now !
It's pay-back Time!
- M
I completely agree that the oil companies are seeing record profits lately, and entirely due to increase revenues with no increased costs. The only reason I can see for the prices to rise NOW has been panic on the part of oil traders, and easy excuses from world events that only MIGHT cause shortages that have yet to appear. However, long-term, it's been inevitable that prices would rise. The oil companies are simply doing what any public company with shareholders would (and MUST) do: make money while the sun shines.
Scott, I don't believe old wells are "filling up again", only that oil that's been there all along has become more economic in some cases to extract, simply because prices have risen sufficiently to allow it. The oil in TX costs a LOT more than in does in Arabia to extract. It's much deeper down, and it fills lots of small crevices in large rock formations. This requires a lot more wells, which not only cost money to drill, but lots of money to maintain. Labor costs are also a lot more than double what they are in the Middle East for basic labor. The Saudis import large amounts of cheap labor from Southeast Asia and India, paying them 10% or less what they pay US-trained specialists there. The $70 prices you see are also not the price as it comes out of the ground, but the price as it reaches US ports. Transport costs are hardly free. I also haven't found any data to support the $12/barrel number you're quoting.
I lived in TX in the early 80s. I saw the economic devestation wrought by the collapse of oil prices. People in Houston were abandoning houses because they could find no buyers, and moving out of state to find work. The news at the time was full of people trying to explain that there was plenty of oil there, it just cost more to pull it out than it did to ship Arabian oil halfway around the world. If prices continue to rise, TX oil might become price competitive again, and we'll be that much less dependent on "foreign" oil.
Scott, I don't believe old wells are "filling up again", only that oil that's been there all along has become more economic in some cases to extract, simply because prices have risen sufficiently to allow it. The oil in TX costs a LOT more than in does in Arabia to extract. It's much deeper down, and it fills lots of small crevices in large rock formations. This requires a lot more wells, which not only cost money to drill, but lots of money to maintain. Labor costs are also a lot more than double what they are in the Middle East for basic labor. The Saudis import large amounts of cheap labor from Southeast Asia and India, paying them 10% or less what they pay US-trained specialists there. The $70 prices you see are also not the price as it comes out of the ground, but the price as it reaches US ports. Transport costs are hardly free. I also haven't found any data to support the $12/barrel number you're quoting.
I lived in TX in the early 80s. I saw the economic devestation wrought by the collapse of oil prices. People in Houston were abandoning houses because they could find no buyers, and moving out of state to find work. The news at the time was full of people trying to explain that there was plenty of oil there, it just cost more to pull it out than it did to ship Arabian oil halfway around the world. If prices continue to rise, TX oil might become price competitive again, and we'll be that much less dependent on "foreign" oil.
| QUOTE (Mrs. K @ Aug 29 2005, 05:57 PM) | ||
Still need more shop towels from the hospital Matt?? Lisa |
Always
My brother and I did a top end rebuild on his '65 mustang this past weekend. Those things hold more oil then a 914!
I lived in the big D and sold oil for Sunset Energy in the 80's. The problem with starting up the Texas and Oklahoma oil wells is: where do you get experienced help, where do you get equipment, all of the suppliers to the Oil industry are out of business as of the Late 80’s, There are no more drill bits makers here no more casing makers here no more rig makers, they all went Bankrupt. If GM went BK do you have any idea how many venders and suppliers make parts for that company, it could bankrupt the whole country. Most auto manufactures don't manufacture vehicles they assemble parts (from suppliers) to make a vehicle. Thousands and thousands of parts suppliers sell parts to GM, Ford, Honda ect....
Same thing happened to suppliers of the oil producing industry. I know I delta with a lot of them.
One day making millions the next looking for a job and selling everything to stay alive. Do any of you remember being able to buy exotic cars rarely seen out, now in the front yard of some Texas mansion, pick up a $12,000 Pres Rolex for 3Grand. Million dollar homes for a few Hundred Grand. I was there saw it, did it, lived thru it.
You can't just turn on a switch to pump an Oil rig. Man I wish it was that simple!
Sorry for the ramble.
Now I sit and play with Toy Cars (914's) 
Same thing happened to suppliers of the oil producing industry. I know I delta with a lot of them.
One day making millions the next looking for a job and selling everything to stay alive. Do any of you remember being able to buy exotic cars rarely seen out, now in the front yard of some Texas mansion, pick up a $12,000 Pres Rolex for 3Grand. Million dollar homes for a few Hundred Grand. I was there saw it, did it, lived thru it.
You can't just turn on a switch to pump an Oil rig. Man I wish it was that simple!
Sorry for the ramble.
Now I sit and play with Toy Cars (914's)
| QUOTE (lapuwali @ Aug 29 2005, 11:18 PM) |
| Scott, I don't believe old wells are "filling up again",... It's much deeper down, and it fills lots of small crevices in large rock formations. This requires a lot more wells, which not only cost money to drill, but lots of money to maintain. ... I also haven't found any data to support the $12/barrel number you're quoting. |
just do a google search on, oil wells filling, and you will see a lot of stuff showing it.
i found out that 70 % of the running wells in texas only produce 9 barrels per day, or $ 630 a day at 70 per gallon, not a bad days income if you ask me. when i went to the WCC i saw them drilling new wells near my cousins, then i talked to some oil guys, they said you can buy an pump for about 250 bucks, that cost about 20 a day to run including maintance.
i also found that 10 % of the final cost we see is advertising, 21 % is taxes, and roughly 50 % is crude costs. the final number i found was opec sells oil at 22 to 28 per barrel, so the 12 must be their cost.
currently a decent refinery get about 60 % of the oil made in to gas so at the numbers i just used
70 a barrel they get 42 dollars worth of gas, or about 30 gallons, so cost per gallon is is about 1.4 per gallon, then we add 21 5 in tax, or 1.7 a gallon, then the ad stuff at 10 %, we are up to 1.81 or so, that leaves about a dollar profit, for some thing they sell millions of every day. the article i read says the delivery of the gas in considered in the 10 % for distribution. the cost to refine was not much either.
and all this math does not include what they do with the other 40 % of the barrel
| QUOTE (Speedster07 @ Aug 29 2005, 08:38 PM) |
| I was there saw it, did it, lived thru it. You can't just turn on a switch to pump an Oil rig. Man I wish it was that simple! Sorry for the ramble. Now I sit and play with Toy Cars (914's) |
Me too. i grew up in Texas and lived in Houston during the boom and bust. i remember the bumper stickers during the boom. "last one out of Michigan, turn out the lights"
during the bust it was: " Please lord, give us $40 a barrel oil and we promise not to piss it all away this time"
I started college as a Geology major. I switched majors when one of my Frat brothers with a masters degree in Geology took a job at 7-11. It was that bad in the 80's.
oil wells are filling up.
wanna buy some land? Because you read it on the web it must be true?
So true Joe, so true, dont believe half of what you read on the web or see on TV, they only show you what they want you to see and tell you what they want you to hear. Most of it is propoganda BS. If you only knew the truth, this country would experience another revolution.
| QUOTE (lapuwali @ Aug 29 2005, 07:23 PM) |
| the thing driving the oil prices up for the past several years has simply been the price of oil catching up with normal inflation. |
Was oil catching up with inflation or driving it? Since all companies have to pass the increase in expenditure without being in the budget, the increase is inevitably passed to the consumer. If I read the chart right, the black line influenced the red one.
As seen on many threads the cost of shipping is growing with the cost of fuel.
| QUOTE (lapuwali @ Aug 29 2005, 09:18 PM) |
| I completely agree that the oil companies are seeing record profits lately |
Its fact...not hard to agree with. Exxon cleared 7 Billion in Profit...not revenue, profit in the last quarter (thats Three months), then oil companies were awarded a GRANT of 2 Billion from the White House for exploration. NICE.
I'm not deppleting resources since I don't leave the house looking for jobs, and wife working from home, so really arm chair quaterbacking on this one.
| QUOTE (SEEMORE BUTZ @ Aug 29 2005, 11:44 PM) |
| Ah bullshit.....we're just getting DICKED Record profits, record prices and we're rolling over and taking it with a tiny inaudible whimper and tear in our eye.... Plain out and out greed.... |
Not me.
It's called 'siphon', wick waxer.
M
| QUOTE (xitspd @ Aug 29 2005, 03:09 PM) |
I had an office in the UK for about 10 years. I never understood why fuel was so high there with the UK being an net exporter. Cheers! Dan |
Taxation.
| QUOTE (zouo @ Aug 30 2005, 03:55 PM) |
| Dan[/QUOTE] Taxation. |
You're not kidding! Its a double screw as well fuel duty and VAT not to mention the road fund licence so make that a triple screw just to get from A to B
Rant over
Andy
We have a responsibility to verify that things we post as fact are indeed factual, and not heresay. ne way to do that is to check with a reputable source such as the API website http://api-ec.api.org/industry/index.cfm?o...004000000000000
We should be careful when quoting things we might overhear or read on a website that is biased.
The following is accurate:
the US produces 8.62 million bbls of gasoline a month, and imports about 1.3 million bbls a month.
Refineries are currently running at 94% capacity, the 6% is attributed to maintenance and unscheduled breakdowns. From past experience I can tell you that it is very difficult to keep a refinery at 94% for a sustained period.
The US has 210 million bbls of gasoline inventory (about 21 days worth), but it isn't hidden away somewhere stashed so no one can get to it. Where did that idea come from? It is sitting in tanks awaiting scheduled shipments, it is in pipelines, it is in gas station storage tanks, in other words it is in the process of being sold to consumers. Verly little of it is sitting idle. GASOLINE GOES BAD IF IT SITS VERY LONG! No one is going to hoard it. It just doesn't happen. It doesn't have to, we can do the same thing by buying and selling gasoline futures.
Current crude inventories are at 318 million bbls (about a 16 day supply, that is called nearly running on empty), that isn't very much considering how much we refine. It takes 30 to 45 days to get crude delivered once it is purchased, you need to have enough inventory to keep running while waiting for the next shipment, and that amount is barely enough to do that. Anyone who passed economics 101 can tell you that excess inventory is evil and bad business practice unless that inventory is expected to increase in value. If speculators think the price of crude is going to rise, they may sit on a million bbls for a few week or two, but that's about it. After that they just play the futures markets.
The US strategic oil reserve is sitting at 700 million bbls. The US consumes around 20 million bbls per day. You do the math.
35 days is a lot shorter than a year.
Don't think the Naval petroleum and oil shale reserves are just sitting there waiting for someone to turn a valve, that would also be
Much of the Naval shale reserves were sold off in the 80's, the Elk Hills oil reserve (while huge) is runnning as hard as it can to produce oil but it is not an easy or a fast process. They have to inject water deep into the ground at extremely high pressures to get the oil out of the rock, then pump it out, then seperate the oil from the water, etc. They just can't get it out that fast.
I know, my shop supplies and maintains the high pressure, high volume pumps for them and I deal with those folks all the time.
I'm not going to comment on the foil hat wearing conspiracy-theorists, just trying to provide some real information.
Research and homework should be a requirement but the truth isn't as much fun or exciting as a conspiracy.
As far as record profits for the oil companies?
If a company made a penny of profit last quarter, and they make two pennies profit this quarter, then they just made record profits and the headlines will say,
"OIL COMPANY PROFITS UP 100%". Don't let the media make a fool out of you.
Exxon-mobil is currently operating at a 10.01% profit margin. Is that gouging? Is that dicking us? I don't think so. Maybe they should be a non-profit organization, or they should give us their products for free. Hardly.
10% is much more profit than oil companies historically make so it looks like a great deal of money when compared to years past, but 10% isn't a mind-blowing number. We need to keep it in perspective.
As previously posted, we can bitch about how much money the shareholders are making or we can join the ranks and become shareholders. that way when they make money, we make money. That is what I have done.
Then the only question is, are we going to be satisfied with a 10% return? Probably. What about a 2 or 3% return that an oil company stock will return over the long run? Maybe not.
Given the historic numbers, a T-bill would probably have done better.
Sorry if I muddled up the bitch session with facts.
We should be careful when quoting things we might overhear or read on a website that is biased.
The following is accurate:
the US produces 8.62 million bbls of gasoline a month, and imports about 1.3 million bbls a month.
Refineries are currently running at 94% capacity, the 6% is attributed to maintenance and unscheduled breakdowns. From past experience I can tell you that it is very difficult to keep a refinery at 94% for a sustained period.
The US has 210 million bbls of gasoline inventory (about 21 days worth), but it isn't hidden away somewhere stashed so no one can get to it. Where did that idea come from? It is sitting in tanks awaiting scheduled shipments, it is in pipelines, it is in gas station storage tanks, in other words it is in the process of being sold to consumers. Verly little of it is sitting idle. GASOLINE GOES BAD IF IT SITS VERY LONG! No one is going to hoard it. It just doesn't happen. It doesn't have to, we can do the same thing by buying and selling gasoline futures.
Current crude inventories are at 318 million bbls (about a 16 day supply, that is called nearly running on empty), that isn't very much considering how much we refine. It takes 30 to 45 days to get crude delivered once it is purchased, you need to have enough inventory to keep running while waiting for the next shipment, and that amount is barely enough to do that. Anyone who passed economics 101 can tell you that excess inventory is evil and bad business practice unless that inventory is expected to increase in value. If speculators think the price of crude is going to rise, they may sit on a million bbls for a few week or two, but that's about it. After that they just play the futures markets.
The US strategic oil reserve is sitting at 700 million bbls. The US consumes around 20 million bbls per day. You do the math.
35 days is a lot shorter than a year.
Don't think the Naval petroleum and oil shale reserves are just sitting there waiting for someone to turn a valve, that would also be
Much of the Naval shale reserves were sold off in the 80's, the Elk Hills oil reserve (while huge) is runnning as hard as it can to produce oil but it is not an easy or a fast process. They have to inject water deep into the ground at extremely high pressures to get the oil out of the rock, then pump it out, then seperate the oil from the water, etc. They just can't get it out that fast.
I know, my shop supplies and maintains the high pressure, high volume pumps for them and I deal with those folks all the time.
I'm not going to comment on the foil hat wearing conspiracy-theorists, just trying to provide some real information.
Research and homework should be a requirement but the truth isn't as much fun or exciting as a conspiracy.
As far as record profits for the oil companies?
If a company made a penny of profit last quarter, and they make two pennies profit this quarter, then they just made record profits and the headlines will say,
"OIL COMPANY PROFITS UP 100%". Don't let the media make a fool out of you.
Exxon-mobil is currently operating at a 10.01% profit margin. Is that gouging? Is that dicking us? I don't think so. Maybe they should be a non-profit organization, or they should give us their products for free. Hardly.
10% is much more profit than oil companies historically make so it looks like a great deal of money when compared to years past, but 10% isn't a mind-blowing number. We need to keep it in perspective.
As previously posted, we can bitch about how much money the shareholders are making or we can join the ranks and become shareholders. that way when they make money, we make money. That is what I have done.
Then the only question is, are we going to be satisfied with a 10% return? Probably. What about a 2 or 3% return that an oil company stock will return over the long run? Maybe not.
Given the historic numbers, a T-bill would probably have done better.
Sorry if I muddled up the bitch session with facts.
Well done, Sammy.
One last thing:
$67 a barrel for crude oil is NOT the price you would get from californian or Texas oil.
That price is for light sweet crude like you would find on the north slope of Alaska or in Saudi Arabia, in other words oil that has very little sulfur content and has a high percentage of light distillates and lower percentage of heavy asphaltines and long chain molecules. Light sweet is cheaper and easier to convert into gasoline and diesel so it is worth more.
The oil that is being pulled out of southern California is heavy sour, and sells for significantly lower than light sweet crude. Sometimes the discount is as much as half.
It takes a great deal of expense to make significant amounts of valuable products form heavy sour crude when compared to the higher grade stuff. It is also harder on the equipment and takes more expensive and complex refining facilities.
Remember seeing gushers coming in on TV or in the movies where oil is spewing out of the ground and covering everyone as they dance around?
That is fictional in most cases around these parts. Sure it happened once in a while, but even then that pressure is relieved very quickly.
Most wells never had that kind of pressure. it takes horsepower to suck the oil out.
As a well gets more mature it produces less oil. Eventually it takes more money to operate a well than you can get back out ouf it. That's when they shut it down.
Oil usually doesn't sit in a great big pool in the earth. It is mixed in and saturated in dirt, rock fissures, and shale. Oily mud. It doesn't just flow out easily or quickly except for a rare exception. That is why organizations like THUMS, KBR, Elk Hills, National Oil well, etc rely on subsurface injection of water, steam, and other chemicals to try and squeaze every drop out of the ground they can. That is expensive, especially when the stuff you are pulling out will only sell for $30 or $40 a bbl (today's prices roughly). Back in 1999 when light sweet crude was selling for $16 bbl, it was not cost effective at all to operate anything but the most productive of domestic wells so they capped them.
Eventually oil will leach out of the rock "fill up" a dry well. Start puming that well and it will dry up again quickly. Is it worth the large cost to start it back up if it could possibly dry up again in a matter of months or faster? Sometimes, more often not.
$67 a barrel for crude oil is NOT the price you would get from californian or Texas oil.
That price is for light sweet crude like you would find on the north slope of Alaska or in Saudi Arabia, in other words oil that has very little sulfur content and has a high percentage of light distillates and lower percentage of heavy asphaltines and long chain molecules. Light sweet is cheaper and easier to convert into gasoline and diesel so it is worth more.
The oil that is being pulled out of southern California is heavy sour, and sells for significantly lower than light sweet crude. Sometimes the discount is as much as half.
It takes a great deal of expense to make significant amounts of valuable products form heavy sour crude when compared to the higher grade stuff. It is also harder on the equipment and takes more expensive and complex refining facilities.
Remember seeing gushers coming in on TV or in the movies where oil is spewing out of the ground and covering everyone as they dance around?
That is fictional in most cases around these parts. Sure it happened once in a while, but even then that pressure is relieved very quickly.
Most wells never had that kind of pressure. it takes horsepower to suck the oil out.
As a well gets more mature it produces less oil. Eventually it takes more money to operate a well than you can get back out ouf it. That's when they shut it down.
Oil usually doesn't sit in a great big pool in the earth. It is mixed in and saturated in dirt, rock fissures, and shale. Oily mud. It doesn't just flow out easily or quickly except for a rare exception. That is why organizations like THUMS, KBR, Elk Hills, National Oil well, etc rely on subsurface injection of water, steam, and other chemicals to try and squeaze every drop out of the ground they can. That is expensive, especially when the stuff you are pulling out will only sell for $30 or $40 a bbl (today's prices roughly). Back in 1999 when light sweet crude was selling for $16 bbl, it was not cost effective at all to operate anything but the most productive of domestic wells so they capped them.
Eventually oil will leach out of the rock "fill up" a dry well. Start puming that well and it will dry up again quickly. Is it worth the large cost to start it back up if it could possibly dry up again in a matter of months or faster? Sometimes, more often not.
I have a plan to bottom out the oil market and get oil prices steeply down.
Here are my thoughts and plan and I think I can do it by myself. One person only.
In my life I have done many many inverstments. EVERY ONE has failed and I lost my shirt. I am an investment black hole. If I go for it it fails and the stocks/prices bottom out.
So I will invest every cent I have into oil futures..
PROBLEM SOLVED!
Here are my thoughts and plan and I think I can do it by myself. One person only.
In my life I have done many many inverstments. EVERY ONE has failed and I lost my shirt. I am an investment black hole. If I go for it it fails and the stocks/prices bottom out.
So I will invest every cent I have into oil futures..
PROBLEM SOLVED!
| QUOTE (Rockaria @ Aug 30 2005, 09:39 AM) |
| I have a plan to bottom out the oil market and get oil prices steeply down. Here are my thoughts and plan and I think I can do it by myself. One person only. In my life I have done many many inverstments. EVERY ONE has failed and I lost my shirt. I am an investment black hole. If I go for it it fails and the stocks/prices bottom out. So I will invest every cent I have into oil futures.. PROBLEM SOLVED! |
Just to keep up your record, this is a good move. Forbes is predicting oil futures will tank soon, probably to $35/barrel, and are calling the current prices a bubble.
If you go in, I'm sure they'll be right...
That is in part why I am invested in independant oil companies and not the majors.
The three companies I own stock in are Valero, Sunoco, and Tesoro and they don't produce crude oil, they buy it and refine it and then market the finished products.
Their profits are only partially dependant on crude oil prices except for the fact that they are most profitable when the sour crude discount is highest.
As long as refining is profitable, they will make money. Even if the price of crude takes a dump, the price of gasoline will still remain above $2.25 a gallon IMO so essentially they will pay significantly less for the crude which is the highest cost of refining, but will continue to make money on the finished product.
Who wouldn't be willing to take a 15% reduction in the price of their finished product if they could cut the cost of production by 45%?
I figure Valero (VLO) will prolly split again this week for the second time in a year. The stock price hit another all time high today at over $95.
The three companies I own stock in are Valero, Sunoco, and Tesoro and they don't produce crude oil, they buy it and refine it and then market the finished products.
Their profits are only partially dependant on crude oil prices except for the fact that they are most profitable when the sour crude discount is highest.
As long as refining is profitable, they will make money. Even if the price of crude takes a dump, the price of gasoline will still remain above $2.25 a gallon IMO so essentially they will pay significantly less for the crude which is the highest cost of refining, but will continue to make money on the finished product.
Who wouldn't be willing to take a 15% reduction in the price of their finished product if they could cut the cost of production by 45%?
I figure Valero (VLO) will prolly split again this week for the second time in a year. The stock price hit another all time high today at over $95.
| QUOTE |
| 2 Billion from the White House for exploration |
exploration is down nearly 30% in the past 10 years.
Dont you think if there was more oil out there they would be spending the money to find it? The facts as they appear is that it is not in their best interest to go looking for it. No more profit to pursue in that area which is why the white house is giving them money. To make exploration economically attractive.
When was the last oil refinery in California built? or anywhere in the US? How many of them?
One of you guys in the oil business surely must know where to find that fact.
No new refineries are being put up because its a losing investment. Production is dropping and putting in more refineries doesn't make sense if the supply can be handled with the current facilities and there is no expected increase in production. Its not the environmentalists that are keeping this from happening because we all know that if the powers that be want a refinery they'll get a refinery.
Oil is on the downslope of its production bellcurve, dropping 3% a year, and those in the know are already preparing for the eventual consequences. I personnally know an Exxon/Mobil CEO who has just invested in a lovely cabin way up in the mountains of Canada as a "retreat". He gave me the short version of why he wanted to move there which is basically this.
You couple a decrease in production with an increase in industrial activity across the globe and you're going to get two things.
higher resource costs and war over those remaining resources.
Is this is already happening?
Cheney was aware of this in 1999
Quote
"By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent
annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead,
along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline
in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010
we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a
day." Dick Cheney
have a look here
if you're into more "BS"
Take a second here to think about the White House's energy policy since Bush first took office.
Securing a reliable enegy sources for America has been at the top of his list since day one and it has been the drving force in much of his policy making. Please correct me if i'm wrong here. This is because he recognizes the immenent problem facing america, not because he is trying to get rich (well, not entirely). I believe he has been taking the steps he sees as necessary, right or wrong, to put america in a good position for the next 50 years with respect to energy supplies.
Its not BS IMO.
I think we are living at the end of a golden age of expansion for our civilization. Oil isn't going to run out anytime soon but as production decreases and global demand increases our society is going to face a major contraction of both poplulation and industry as our oil economy struggles with its thirst. It isn't going to take a huge decrease in production to make this happen either.
I know, i dont know what i'm talking about. Alternative resources, Hydrogen?
Hydrogen cells are BS. They need platinum which does not exist in the quatity needed.
Solar? there isn't enough real estate, and besides you need oil to produce them.
these are the signs i see.
War in Iraq
China manouvering politcally and economically to gain control of Americas sources of energy here in the US and abroad.
decrease in exploration
decrease in production
increase in operating levels of existing pumping facilities
increase in demand worldwide
America squaring off against EVERY oil producer who isn't giving us preferred treatment
| QUOTE |
| As previously posted, we can bitch about how much money the shareholders are making or we can join the ranks and become shareholders. that way when they make money, we make money. That is what I have done. |
sounds like a good plan. Make some money and buy a nice house somewhere on a lake with good fishing far away from everyone else.
excuse my craziness, but you cant discuss oil without bringing up PEAK OIL theory and its potential affects on society.
and that CEO parts isn't BS. back to work for me.
b.
edit: forgive the speeeeling and grammar and brevity, it is obviously too much for me to handle properly in one post.
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