I have been a hobbyist sports car collector for about the past 20 years since I bought my first '67 911 in 1984 and was wondering if any of the board members have done an assessment of the what the future holds for the 914? What, if any, has the historical (past 5 years) appreciation been - has it even kept up with inflation? At some point they have to begin increasing - don't they?

The problem is that there is no way of recording all of the sales and all of the information. You can look at ebay for all of the completed auctions and get a number, but you don't really know the condition of the cars and if the sale was actually completed when the buyer showed up and saw what he really bought.

Excellence does periodic market reports on values. But, I question those numbers as well. I tracked the variances for a while and gave up when I noticed that the price changes seemed to be more attributable to spreadsheet manipulation then actual sales.

IMO
The demand for these cars has really picked up in the last 6 months. Likewise, Prices have increased as well. I just purchased a car, that 7 months ago, took 2 months to sell. I bought it the same day it was listed for sale (he had 6-10 offers to buy it, Sight unseen) It was even in slightly worse condition than when it originally sold (priced accordingly for wear). Clean, running cars are selling fast and for decent prices.
IMO

but %'s? I have no idea. But i bet it's a pretty high number from the last 6 months to a year.

All of the cheap bastards on this board will disagree with me , but i think there is some truth to my observations.

(pics in blog) BTW, my 75 Copper metallic with SSI and fresh euor spec motor is now for sale at $17,000

May I add...... I think a large part of the VALUE of these cars is based upon location. For instance... around here in St. Louis.... 914s are extremly rare. I sold my last teener SUPER quick (24 hours from the time it was listed), for $4900.

On Ebay, it probably would have sold for maybe $2500-$3000.

Another issue.... I don't think eBay is an accurate representation of what the cars are worth. I think it's an accurate representation of what people are willing to "risk" on a car they've never seen... but thats it.

I'm far from an economics major or anything..... or even a historian..... but there's a few things I've noticed. I used to rebuild/restore 2nd generation Trans Ams.... in fact, I've owned 6 of them. Since GM discontinued the Camaro and T/A... the prices have SKYROCKETED on the classics.

The 914? Lets see..... it gets good gas mileage. With the gas prices what they are, I think thats becoming more important to classic car enthusiasts.

It also looks cool..... in fact, it even has certain qualities that some of the new "roadsters" mimic. Not to mention the recent exposure to the Subaru crowd.

Lastly... it's a Porsche.

Just my thoughts..... but I'm betting in 5 or 6 years..... we're going to start seeing a HUGE increase in the interest of our sacred little cars.

Just my thoughts... I could be wrong.

I bought my car in 2000 and the same car now, going by what I've seen sold lately, would sell for just shy of double of what I originally paid for it.

I'll agree that geography plays a big part. One still regularly sees drivable project cars here in the Bay Area offered for under $2K. There are five such cars on craigslist right now. There are three more for under $4K. There's one /6 conversion for $25K, but it's been for sale for a long time, and I doubt the guy's ever going to see that price.

People on the East Coast always say prices are a lot higher there, and I'm sure they are. However, buying a $1K project car here, plus the cost of transport to the East Coast ($1500), plus a plane ticket/rental car to inspect it ($500), it seems to me that relatively rust-free driveable project cars shouldn't be worth more than $3K anywhere in the country. No one ever seems to listen to that argument, however.

From time to time, Sports Car Market magazine does an update for tracking classic car values. I have the Porsche book from a few years back, but it's probably been updated in the monthly magazines since then. Keith, the owner, is a nice guy and he hosts one of the bigger auctions down south for Speed and he knows his stuff. Doesn't track private sales, but I think most can get a decent gauge of value by looking at what "1"s and "2"s are going for at these national events.

MIke (in Portland)

I sold my very nice, rust-free, all stock '74 2.0 for $7500 in around 1999. It seemed like at the time, that was in the upper range for a stock 914-4, even a nice one.

My guess it that if in the same condition as it was then, I could get $10,000 to $12000 for it today. Maybe more if I really marketed it. It was very nice, all stock except for Bilsteins and a newer radio receiver. Engine rebuilt from the crank up by FAT with Euro pistons, trans by Ottos, etc.

I think the price for nice examples of 914 has been going up in the past few years, and will continue to do so. The thing that has been keeping them down is that so many were produced, BUT, I think at the 30+ year old stage now, they are starting to bite the dust in increasingly large numbers.

The other thing is the increasing cost, and decreasing availability, of parts. That makes it a much more pricey proposition to restore, and makes the value of a really nice example higher. When you have a nice example with stock mirrors, rubber all in great condition, trim all in great condition, no rust, etc. - that's a lot of value there. Very expensive these days to get that stuff new (if you can even get it) when you are trying to resurrect a beater.

The critical factor in determining a fair value for our 914s is to define the cars condition, in terms of its overall quality. I have toyed with the idea of developing a quality rating system that is objective as much as possible, to see if its possible to get some consistency in determining values.

Each person has a differnet eye, and would assign different values for the same condition, but within tolerance, hopefully this could be a useful tool. This is what I have so far, any recommendations for improvement?

I think you are off in your "Point Factor" Jeff. You have the highest factor of 3.00 assigned to Engine Bay (drivetrain, exhaust, etc). When I bought my car, I looked at almost 80 cars over a 18-month period. I quickly came up with my rule that "The drivetrain can always be replaced, but the chassis is only perfect once in it's life". Other things can be bolted in and replaced, but you need a good solid tub.

Thanks for the feedback Paul. I tried to allocate the 10 total points in a way that reflected the importance of each component to the value of the whole car. Certainly the drivetrain and chassis/body are the most important. I could modify the values to be 2.5 points for each instead of 2 and 3, making them equal how does that sound? Any part of the 914 can be restored back to perfect condition, its all replaceable, and every part is subject to wear and abuse of one kind or another. But a 914 is only original once, to quote the Cap'n.

I think most driveable 914s will fall into the 50-75 point rating, if assessments are rational. I also thought it was appropriate to recognize high quality original cars over their better than perfect restorations, hence the extra 10 points for originality.

This quality evaluation system is only one factor of a good assessment. Other things that should be considered are modifications (variable value dependent on buyer), buyer location/shipping costs and simple personal choice. Some people just like X color car or model year and will pay more for that color or year, just like they will pay more if there are no good cars in their area.

Is this a useful tool to anyone?

I agree with Paul. I'd flip the engine bay and outer body numbers (so body is 3 and engine bay is 2). Getting the tub really nice can often cost MORE than a full engine rebuild, and will generally mean more to most buyers when THEY set the value.

I like your approach Jeff. Your system is very similar to the Classic Car Club of America's judging sheet, which has been in use for about 50 years. Gives a nice objective way to evaluate a car and compare to others. I do think the Misc. category is too highly valued, .5 would be better. I agree with the comments regarding points for body relative to engine bay. I would use this sheet to rate a car. Nice work.

Marc

I said it before. These are the new Speedsters. Save your 914's boys. There's just nothing out there anywhere near as much fun to drive at twice the money.

I bought my '74 2.0L about 5 years ago. In the last 2 to 3 years prices have popped up significantly. I figure my car is worth $2-3K more than I paid for it.

I think there is a widening gap in prices. Premium non-rusty original condition cars have gone up the most. Beaters, at least in CA, still seem to sell for about the same amount of money as they did 5 years ago.

Finding the nice, original cars is getting harder and harder and the prices reflect it.

I have not watched prices at all. I don't care, I will NEVER sell it, so it does not matter to me. (As an aside, it practically doubled in value when I put tires on it and filled the gas tank )Nice tool for sketching out the value though. I would think a late car vs an early tail shifter car would be more valuable, but that is just me.

I found this over at BusinessWeek, How Does Your Car Rate?

It's a preview of the Martin Rating System for Collectible Cars from Sports Car Market. They've selected 100 cars, each with something different to offer to a collector, and rated them on a 1–100 point scale, in five categories of 20 points each.

Here's a screenshot that shows where the 2.0L 914/4 fits in after I arranged it to show the least expensive first. It is interesting to note that they rank the 914 as being a "B" grade investment. For 914 owners, that could be a very good sign.

Only a 13 on rarity?


Figure that there are 5000 914's belonging to the memebers here, How many are rust free? less than half I would say going by all the pics posted.... and of that 2500 cars how many are in really nice shape? Maybe 2000 at best so outta a 115,000 production run about 2000 are nice cars these days. I would call that rare.

My prices are for 914/4's:
Excellent condition-$10-12k
Nice-6500-9000
Good-4500-6000
Poor-2000-4500
Parts-500-1500


I bought mine in 1995 because the body was rust free (Eastern Washington car) and complete with a cheap repaint in the original color for $1900. Needed engine work but I drove it for 2+ years with the carbs on it and adding oil.

The rarity number is only for the 2.0. They only made 32K of those v. 65K 1.7s. This matches the rarity number for the 912, which they also made 32K of (not counting the 912E), so the scale makes sense.

Rarity almost never correlates to value. There were only 2200 912Es ever made, but look at its score on the value scale. Alfa Romeo only imported 2000 Alfettas into this country, yet they're $500 throwaway cars today. My FIAT coupe is far more rare than the 914, but isn't worth anything like as much in equal condition. Really nice early Mustangs sell for quite a bit more than a 914, yet they produced them in much larger numbers.

QUOTE (Bleyseng @ Mar 24 2006, 09:43 AM)

Figure that there are 5000 914's belonging to the memebers here, How many are rust free? less than half I would say going by all the pics posted.... and of that 2500 cars how many are in really nice shape?

I don't see how you can extrapolate the total number of 914s based on the 914club membership. I know of several really nice 914s who's owners aren't represented here. There are tons of 914s squirreled away in garages all over the country that we never hear about because the people don't post online.

Every time I go to a PCA event I meet several people who have never heard of 914world.com.

i think $12-14k for a nice car is not unrealistic. niche market tho. this car will have had new suspension,tires, brakes, and near perfect on cosmetics. ready to drive, hassle free. imho, it's the stock cars that will appreciate at a greater rate. quite a few members have multiple cars. it skewes the member to car ratio also.

k

I have records of a few LE cars that sold in the 12K-15K window. $15K top dollar so far, for a 'nice' restored LE. Top dollar is a above that.

I wasn't pricing LE cars which are a "Special " car.

I have met a few too (in Seattle) that aren't on the 914club but most of the time their cars that I have seen fall into the lower catagories and are 1.7l's.

fine, double that number to 4000 (I doubt it) for good- excellent cars which is still small for a fun Porsche sports car.

Ten years ago there were lots more nice condition cars around to pick from, pickings these days are slim and thats why prices are going up fast!

You are not going to have people paying more for a 76 914 than they are for a 75 914. The 76 is Porsche factory built, no VW markings on the car. I feel that the 76 is a rare car. Personally I don't think the upper price point cars are going to be that plentiful, and when one is available you had better buy it and treat as a collector car, garage it, drive it.
I said this when I first got involved with the 914 I knew this was going to go the way of the 356. All of the 914s that are cutup just help to increase the value of those still on the streets. Keep cutting, one day you will look back and say, "I remember when"
Jeff I like your valuation table. I think the point system should be more even. As said everything can be restored to perfect conditon, just not "original".
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