Here are the only data points we have:

1. The 1977 HO recall which only applied to USA 914s and which was issued a year after production ceased, indicates that approximately 83,000 914s (only including 914/4s) were imported to the USA.

Sidebar: If ~115,000 914/4s were produced then approximately 32,000 went to other non-USA markets. So the USA received about 2/3s of total production.

2. Marketing literature indicates 1000 1974 914 LE cars were built for the USA market for the 1974 model year. Today, 33 years after the LE cars were produced, approximately 200 surviving LE cars are on the registry. We continue to find more LE cars regularly even after 25 years of searching and recordkeeping, and its the only control group of 914s where records are available. Presumably all were imported to the USA, because they were USA market cars. So for discussion, if we assume that 250 LE cars remain, thats a 25% survival rate. BTW, most of those known surviving LE cars are drivable and not parts cars.

So from that info:

A. How many 914s can be estimated to remain now in 2007?

B. At the calculated 'attrition rate', how many 914s might statistically still be with us in 5, 10, 20 years?

I know that assumptions will need to be made and an exact number of survivors will probably never be known, all I am interested in is an educated guess based on the info we have. Please post the projection and supporting math if its easy to comprehend.

Hmmm! Might be fun to play with this.

I'll give it a shot.

Pat

I would think that since LEs were special that they might have been taken better care of in general and thus have a slightly higher survival rate than the rest of the production run (at least /4s - the same argument might apply to /6s - they were special so got taken better care of).

Skip

George says he is mailing out 33,000 copies of the AA catalog. I am astounded at that. If he could only get each one to send back the VIN's of each of their cars that would be a tremendous resource.

my guess is 50% of George's mailing list don't have cars anymore so total 914's is around 15,000.

I don't where you came up with the 50% number but there is a very high percentage of people that own more than one 914.

Let's say only 25% of the 33,000 don't have cars. That's 24,750 that do. Now let's say that only 10% of that number have 2 cars. That's 2,475 for an estimated total of 27,225.

Now the 27,225 number doesn't include people that aren't hooked into the whole 914 community. That number alone is 1/3 of the 83,000.

I'm with Tim on that one. I'm sure that George does not want to waste his money sending out a catalog to someone that no longer owns a 914. Each one probably costs a few dollars with postage.

I'm sure that a significant percentage own more than one 914. I have not completed my data entry yet, so cannot provide actual numbers, but I was surprised at the number of VIN's associated with member names.

I would have guessed that less than half the owners would be on the AA list. If it was possible on the next catalog, I'd like to see a link to 914World website, and an encouragement to list the VIN of every possessed 914. That would help vendors know the potential market size. I think it could be a synergistic relationship.

Although not very accurate, you could work backwards by counting the number of cars we have cut up, wrecked, or trashed. My second 914 was built from one good car and one that had broken in half. If I count the half-car, I have owned 4 914s. That gives me an attrition rate of 25%.

I would estimate the low side of remaining cars is not less than 25% and the high side is probably not higher than 50%. Somewhere between 30% and 40% is probably close.

Whats the old saying about advertising?... Half of your money is wasted. Problem is you don't know which half!

I read somewhere that the attrition rate for domestic cars is 12% for the first decade. Since the 914 was built for "6" years of its first decade, I'd lower that percentage to 10%, meaning 74,700 914's survived until 1980. I preface this by reminding people that early cars had fire problems & were burdened by being a "cheap Porsche", which means that many were abused & trashed. That's why I give an aggregate attrition rate of 10% for the first decade.

For the second decade, I'd bet the attrition rate zoomed to an additional 20%, leaving 59,760 at the end of 1989. Why? The cars were trashed even moreso because they were even cheaper & got into the hands of high schoolers. Plus, the rust issue was really rearing it's head during this decade. I believe many were crushed/parted in the mid-to-late part of the 80's. I know one guy who owned at least a dozen during that period and all but one of them were parted & crushed.

The third decade, leading up to 2000, I believe was even worse. I'd put the attrition rate at 25%! Too many were too far gone on the East coast & in the midwest - they bought the farm. I do know of two cars that were built from spliced bodies, but they are also long gone. My guess is that there were about 45,000 actual roadworthy, semi-roadworthy, in-restoration, or parts beast when 2000 hit.

I think George's catalog numbers (and I assume those are 914 catalogues) are probably not too far off. If the 25% number for the last decade holds up, and you pro-rate it for this decade, that would mean there should be about 37,000 of these beasts surviving in one form or another.

However, other than the first statistic, all other attrition rates came from my upper and/or lower intestine.

Whattya think?

Pat

This has sort of come up in other threads before...........the facts that were discussed before are 75% of Porsches production is sold in the USA, this makes the 83,000 recalled number fairly accurate (and of the 75% production that is sold here, 75% is sold in California). 75% 0f 115,000 is 86,250.

I suggested in the other thread that one person from each state write their DMV and ask how many are registered in each state. I did that here and there were 20 cars registered and insured in Manitoba. Of the 20 I could account for eight of the 20. That is I had met or seen six of the other owners cars (two of the ones listed were mine). That left 12 other cars that I have never seen.

When the other thread came up I did projections based on populations (X amount of people = X amount of cars sold) and came up with a figure using the Manitoba data (if I remember correctly) of 45,000 cars left. + or - !0%

As to the 33,000 figure from AA, I have 8 cars (that is I have 5 cars that will see the road again or are on the road and 3 parts cars) and I'm not on his mailing list, nor do I want to be. So I think using that figure is low.

I am still on American Iron catalogs that follow me around wherever I have moved. I built a 390 Ford engine in 1990 I haven't order crap since then!!!! Once you are on a list its hard to get off it as its advertising like a shotgun blast-coverage! 50% waste...

I still believe there aren't more than 20,000 cars left, I don't count the rotted parts cars thou...they need to be able to be driven

Based on the data available to us, 25% of 914 LE cars survive today in 2007. I think this number is on the high side in terms of an overall survival rate for all 914s because the LEs were made near the end of the production, the earlier cars have been on the road longer and their survival rate should be lower. The LEs may have also received better care because of their rarity, so their survival rate may be marginally higher than the overall survival rate but lets use 25% as a base line and consider the balance as a contingency.

I am not a statistician but, if 25% of all 914s imported to the USA survive today, then 25% of 83,000 = 21,000 surviving cars in 2007 as an approximate maximum.

This also means that 83,000-21,000=62,000 USA cars have been destroyed through 2007.

34 years have passed since the midpoint 1973 model year of 914 production.

62,000 cars/34 years = 1,800 cars per year have been destroyed as the average attrition rate over the last 34 years.

1,800 cars per year/62,000 total cars destroyed = 2.94% per year average attrition rate

At the 2.94% attrition rate, 600 cars are currently destroyed each year. So at this attrition rate, here are the projected quantities of surviving 914s for the near future:

Today 2007 = 21,000 cars
5 yrs 2012 = 18,000 cars
10 yrs 2017 = 16,000 cars

Garrold, I checked with California DMV and they do not release vehicle registration data without a court order, so meaningful information is not available to us here.

Save the 914!

Jeff,
I had checked within the last year with the Ohio BMV about vehicle registrations, referencing my position with a new car dealership with regards to titling, licensing and registering cars. The office personel that I spoke with in Columbus, Ohio HQ indicates that the only information that would be kept for auto registrations would be the manufacturers name, i.e. PORSCHE. The Ohio BMW does not have vehicle information on Porsche by model type (356, 914, 944, 911, etc.)

On a personel note, when I electronically report a sold unit (to the Ohio BMV) with regard to my job, all I report to them is the manufacturers name (i.e. Honda), vehicle type (i.e. 4 dr sdn) & VIN (no input on whether the car is a Civic, Accord, Sable, 328i, etc.).

Paul

could they provide a printout by VIN, that would surely nail it, and provide bonus info as well.

That's a thought! I'll try to go down that road with them.

Here the same people who issue the insurance, issue the registrations and titles. So it was easy for them to search their data base and come up with the numbers. BC and SK should be able to provide the same infromation as their insurance companys are the same models.

When I asked, it took two phone calls to two different people to explain what I wanted and I then faxed a letter with my request to the persons office. A letter arrived about a week later with the list of cars by year and vin.

As for states that only record the vin numbers, the vin itself would tell there DMV what model it is.

A state issues the licence plates, so there has to be a data base somewhere that matches the car to the plate. You don't go in and ask for licence plates without having to tell them what type of car it's going to be put on.

In Canada we have CPIC which allows anyone to search a vin or licence plate to see if a car is stolen. The same data base might contain all the cars that are registered in Canada and possibly the USA. It's just a matter of being able to extract the data in the right manner and finding the right person to extract that data.

what exactly is an l.e.? or in otherwords what do they consist of, is there a way of looking into the vin to determine?

mike

Hey Kenny,

Check the link in my signature...

http://members.rennlist.com/914_canam/
In a nutshell, it was a 1974 914 2.0 with VIN above 4742914300 approximately with alloy wheels (usually Mahles painted to match the accent color) in either black or light ivory with an accent color of sunflower yellow on the black or phoenix red on the ivory (bumpers, front spoiler, rear valence, rocker panels and usually a negative stripe). Proof is a COA showing the correct M option.

I just got off the phone with the folks at the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles.
Unfortunately I was not able to obtain a list of VINs, but they were able to tell me the total number of 914 registrations from Jan. 01, 2007 thru Oct. 31, 2007.
That number is....98!

As a personal observation, that number doesn't include my own 914, which has been off the road, unregistered this year for the first time since it was new in 1970, as it is undergoing a refitment/resurrection/refurbisment/restoration.

Secondly, as we get into the winter season here in the Midwest and the road salt applications are measured in terms of tons/mile, I wouldn't look for any increase in that total number of registrations beyond 100, if that.

Without knowing the number of survivors undergoing restoration and track cars that never see public roads, I believe a fairly accurate number to use for Ohio 914 survivors would be 100.

Paul

How many phone calls did it take?

Of those 100 cars, how many do you know of?

Good job

Seven (7) different phone numbers were referenced and called before I got in the "right room" and got to talk to someone who could help me.

This year to date, I've seen a total of 2 914s on the road here in the greater Cincinnati area. There are several in PCA that show up for the ocassional, casual concours event, but I've only seen them through photos in the newsletter, as I work Saturdays and Sundays when these events are typically held.

This Forum is inhabited by 2 or 3 members from the Cincinnati area,and I've met an individual from the Dayton area last year at the 2006 FFC. There are also several members that are in the northern climes of Ohio, based on the locales that are listed below their avatar.

Paul

I'm not done with the BMV just yet, however. I didn't want to push too hard, too soon, for too much information, so I was gentle with my requests. Now that I have a phone # and a contact name, later on I will attempt to secure a list of VINs. That would be a coup.

So far I have 54 members listed for Ohio and 9 alone in the Cincinnati area.

What about Ky & In? They are so close to Cincy!

I wonder if he is slowly trying to come up with a list of cars that are out there. I called to order the new catalog and the gal I spoke with asked me for the year, and color of my car. Maybe the start of a list or not.

KY 16
IN 23
OH 54

ok, a average of 30 cars per state X 49=1470 + Californias 10,000 cars= 12,000

The number of registered 914s in Ohio is 98 as of the first 10 months of 2007. Mine would be 99. So I'd think it's a safe bet to say there are 100 licensed, registered 914s in Ohio. (Only 54 are members here, according to Dave). That's not counting cars that are not registered with the BMV 'cause they are track cars, undergoing restoration, are parts cars, or the owners just don't bother to keep the license/registration current.

If Kentucky numbers 16 members, maybe there are a total of 30.
If Indaiana lists 23 members. perhaps there are 40 surviving 914s.

100 (Ohio) + 30(Ky) + 40 (In)= 170 for three midwest states.

170 divided by 3....56.6. Let's call it 50.

50 914s/state X 49 =2450.

Add California cars (are the 10K members, or real registrations?)

I can't imagine Hawaii, Alaska, N. Dakota, Maine, for instance, are going to have 50 914s. On the other hand, places like Florida, Texas, Illinois, New York may very well have more.

It's hard for me to fathom that the 914 survival rate could be as low as 25%.

Paul

I personally would not be surprised at a 25-30% survival rate.

I love these little cars but they are not, nor have they ever been, an expensive car.
they have always the red-headed-step-child of both the VW and porsche crowd.

I would say most 914s have been bought, beatup, and thrown away over the years.
even to this day they seem to be extremely disposable.

anyay, this is my take on it. the numbers are shrinking fast... so perhaps someday
they will be rare enough to command a higher price. hence adding longevity to the
remaining examples.

carry on.

Approximately 115,000 "4's" built over 6 years and another 3300 "6"s... maybe 10% still being driven/registered/raced? Considering NO rust protection, low entry price, NARP stigma, Lots of "2 clips to build 1 car" syndrome, parts cars.

Now, let me also generalize that 50% of all 914's came to the US (so, 60K "4"s and 1700 "6"s) Of those, I think about 15% of "4"s are still used in the US - so... 9,000 "4"s and maybe 20% of the 6's so 350 "6"s?

or about 10,000 914s in the US still drivable/registered/racing

Paul, make mine #100. I haven't bought plates for it in over 25 years.

I have destroyed about 25+ cars that come to mind. Just in the last couple of years I started saving the headlight vin tags to track the cars.

WHY

In sweden we have about 180 914-4 and six 914-6 + three 914-6GT
I dont understand why some of you just destroy 914s
i have two 914-4 that are quite rusty like the most cars here but iam trying to save them both

Here there is a abundance of clean fairly rustfree cars still....so pouring $4k to repair a car that is rusty isn't worth it when you can buy a clean car for $5-8k.

For my calculations, I will use the SWAG method.

I believe that as of right now, approximately 1/3-1/2 the cars imported into the USA are still around (not necessarily drivable, but around). This would include track only cars that may or may not be "registered" in the state that they reside.

I base this partly on the fact that (4) good tubs (2 drivable and the other 2 will be drivable one day) are in my garage right now. Two of these are my dad's and two are mine. My brother has (2) drivable cars (one is his son's car).

My dad and I have had at least (5) parts cars. (4) were cut up and (1) was sold as a tub many years ago.

I still see 914's frequently on Craigslist in my area (some are parts cars and some are supposedly drivable).



I know that cars are being cut up everyday, so the number is constantly decreasing, but I still think there are probably about 1/3-1/2 left.

There is one fellow in Ontario that is buying absolute junkers providing that the titles are good. He then turns them into tube frame race cars with a minimum of original bodywork. This permits some VIN's that would otherwise be totally scrapped to be kept alive albeit much modified. He does nothing illegal, hence the requirement of the good titles.

In North Dakota, the members of the local Porsche club that meet monthly have amongst their small membership , a total of 5 cars. 2 are true 6 cylinder Porsches and the others are 2.0 litres of 74 and 75 vintage.
There were also 2 true 6's that were recently sold out of state, and I personally know of 3 - 1.8 cars and 4 more 2.0 litre cars sitting and/ or run minimally, but they need help. The 5 cars owned by us are all show worthy and definitely rust free and road worthy survivors. Most showing less than 70,000 miles, one with an actual 21,000.
In Grand Forks , there have been several sighted, and in Bismarck there is rumored to be about a half dozen, as there was a local Porsche/VW dealer there for years. In the rest of the state I would hazard there to be less than another half dozen, total.
If we were to show a total of 25 or 30 cars statewide that were running , licensed cars, I would be surprised. But then we may have that many sitting around behind garages, under tarps or in wrecking yards. About once a year, I get a surprise and see one I have never seen before, usually bent to the ground and covered with leaves or moss, the edges of a rust ravaged hulk peering from its roost.
They are indeed a dying breed, and it is a sad fact.

And its starting to become that way for 944 cars also.

The was one at the GF UPS depot (blue). Guy who owned it worked there. I never got to talk to him about it. There probably are 20-25 cars in ND. There are 20 that were registered here last year and I have only seen/know of 8 of them.

When I worked for Mazda Canada (and at Hyundai Canada), we used a company "R.L.POLK" for market research. they used to compile every registered VIN in Canada, and provide a report that was by model/year/postal code.

They may have been bought out by "Derossiers" or another company who's name escapes me....

Might be worth some digging....

I'm sure it cost $$$, but it does exist here. There must be somthing similar in the USA.

I've compiled a list of CDN motor vehicle departments address's for all provinces (except for BC) and I am in the process of sending them all request letters like I did for Manitoba. I did the one for Quebec in French. Hopefully they will all respond like Manitoba did and provide serial numbers along with the year.

I just finished a phone conversation with the (believe it or not) nice woman at the Ohio BMV that I talked to this past November. The total number of license registrations (new or renewal) for Ohio titled 914s still stands at 98.

I asked if there was a way to secure the VINs for said registrations, and she said that without a "special program", they (the BMV) would not be able to do so, and that such a "special program" would not be available. I further asked if it were possible for me to personally go to Columbus (Ohio) and do the search, to which she indicated that "that would not be possible".

At least we do know the exact number of legally titled and registered 914s in Ohio for the year 2007. How many are undergoing restoration, are tucked away in garages unlicensed, are languishing under tarps behind garages, are parts donors or are slowly returning their carbon based metals to earth in some forgotten field is a number that would be pure conjecture on my part.

One of these "lost" 914 souls.......

I have the figures for Germany

1297 Cars stil registred in 2007 ... but I dont know how many were sold ... But you can be sure that most of European 914 were sold in Germany.
http://www.914-club.de/pages/aktuell.html

Here I have figures for France
2016 Cars sold but no Idea how many survived ... At the club we think 400
http://club914.fr/ventes.htm

Here are the figures for Italy
2520 Cars Sold but no Idea how many survived ...

Other remarks:

We see more and more US re-imported 914 in Europe ... USD VS Euro rate makes the 914 very cheap for us.
http://eng.autoscout24.com/home/index/list...&sort=price

Auto Atlanta is shipping Catalogs all over the world ... so the figures will not tell you anything about US market.