Our best estimate of how many USA 914s survive in 2007, Save the 914! |
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914/4: 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 914/6: 70 71 72
Our best estimate of how many USA 914s survive in 2007, Save the 914! |
JeffBowlsby |
Nov 13 2007, 07:21 PM
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#1
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914 Wiring Harnesses Group: Members Posts: 8,533 Joined: 7-January 03 From: San Ramon CA Member No.: 104 Region Association: None |
Here are the only data points we have:
1. The 1977 HO recall which only applied to USA 914s and which was issued a year after production ceased, indicates that approximately 83,000 914s (only including 914/4s) were imported to the USA. Sidebar: If ~115,000 914/4s were produced then approximately 32,000 went to other non-USA markets. So the USA received about 2/3s of total production. 2. Marketing literature indicates 1000 1974 914 LE cars were built for the USA market for the 1974 model year. Today, 33 years after the LE cars were produced, approximately 200 surviving LE cars are on the registry. We continue to find more LE cars regularly even after 25 years of searching and recordkeeping, and its the only control group of 914s where records are available. Presumably all were imported to the USA, because they were USA market cars. So for discussion, if we assume that 250 LE cars remain, thats a 25% survival rate. BTW, most of those known surviving LE cars are drivable and not parts cars. So from that info: A. How many 914s can be estimated to remain now in 2007? B. At the calculated 'attrition rate', how many 914s might statistically still be with us in 5, 10, 20 years? I know that assumptions will need to be made and an exact number of survivors will probably never be known, all I am interested in is an educated guess based on the info we have. Please post the projection and supporting math if its easy to comprehend. Attached image(s) |
Pat Garvey |
Nov 14 2007, 08:05 PM
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#2
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Do I or don't I...........? Group: Members Posts: 5,899 Joined: 24-March 06 From: SE PA, near Philly Member No.: 5,765 Region Association: North East States |
I read somewhere that the attrition rate for domestic cars is 12% for the first decade. Since the 914 was built for "6" years of its first decade, I'd lower that percentage to 10%, meaning 74,700 914's survived until 1980. I preface this by reminding people that early cars had fire problems & were burdened by being a "cheap Porsche", which means that many were abused & trashed. That's why I give an aggregate attrition rate of 10% for the first decade.
For the second decade, I'd bet the attrition rate zoomed to an additional 20%, leaving 59,760 at the end of 1989. Why? The cars were trashed even moreso because they were even cheaper & got into the hands of high schoolers. Plus, the rust issue was really rearing it's head during this decade. I believe many were crushed/parted in the mid-to-late part of the 80's. I know one guy who owned at least a dozen during that period and all but one of them were parted & crushed. The third decade, leading up to 2000, I believe was even worse. I'd put the attrition rate at 25%! Too many were too far gone on the East coast & in the midwest - they bought the farm. I do know of two cars that were built from spliced bodies, but they are also long gone. My guess is that there were about 45,000 actual roadworthy, semi-roadworthy, in-restoration, or parts beast when 2000 hit. I think George's catalog numbers (and I assume those are 914 catalogues) are probably not too far off. If the 25% number for the last decade holds up, and you pro-rate it for this decade, that would mean there should be about 37,000 of these beasts surviving in one form or another. However, other than the first statistic, all other attrition rates came from my upper and/or lower intestine. Whattya think? Pat |
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