Our best estimate of how many USA 914s survive in 2007, Save the 914! |
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914/4: 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 914/6: 70 71 72
Our best estimate of how many USA 914s survive in 2007, Save the 914! |
JeffBowlsby |
Nov 13 2007, 07:21 PM
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#1
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914 Wiring Harnesses Group: Members Posts: 8,533 Joined: 7-January 03 From: San Ramon CA Member No.: 104 Region Association: None |
Here are the only data points we have:
1. The 1977 HO recall which only applied to USA 914s and which was issued a year after production ceased, indicates that approximately 83,000 914s (only including 914/4s) were imported to the USA. Sidebar: If ~115,000 914/4s were produced then approximately 32,000 went to other non-USA markets. So the USA received about 2/3s of total production. 2. Marketing literature indicates 1000 1974 914 LE cars were built for the USA market for the 1974 model year. Today, 33 years after the LE cars were produced, approximately 200 surviving LE cars are on the registry. We continue to find more LE cars regularly even after 25 years of searching and recordkeeping, and its the only control group of 914s where records are available. Presumably all were imported to the USA, because they were USA market cars. So for discussion, if we assume that 250 LE cars remain, thats a 25% survival rate. BTW, most of those known surviving LE cars are drivable and not parts cars. So from that info: A. How many 914s can be estimated to remain now in 2007? B. At the calculated 'attrition rate', how many 914s might statistically still be with us in 5, 10, 20 years? I know that assumptions will need to be made and an exact number of survivors will probably never be known, all I am interested in is an educated guess based on the info we have. Please post the projection and supporting math if its easy to comprehend. Attached image(s) |
Bleyseng |
Nov 14 2007, 08:56 AM
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#2
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Aircooled Baby! Group: Members Posts: 13,035 Joined: 27-December 02 From: Seattle, Washington (for now) Member No.: 24 Region Association: Pacific Northwest |
my guess is 50% of George's mailing list don't have cars anymore so total 914's is around 15,000.
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TeenerTim |
Nov 14 2007, 09:15 AM
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#3
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 597 Joined: 22-October 07 From: Norfolk,VA Member No.: 8,253 Region Association: MidAtlantic Region |
my guess is 50% of George's mailing list don't have cars anymore so total 914's is around 15,000. I don't where you came up with the 50% number but there is a very high percentage of people that own more than one 914. Let's say only 25% of the 33,000 don't have cars. That's 24,750 that do. Now let's say that only 10% of that number have 2 cars. That's 2,475 for an estimated total of 27,225. Now the 27,225 number doesn't include people that aren't hooked into the whole 914 community. That number alone is 1/3 of the 83,000. |
Bleyseng |
Nov 15 2007, 09:04 AM
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#4
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Aircooled Baby! Group: Members Posts: 13,035 Joined: 27-December 02 From: Seattle, Washington (for now) Member No.: 24 Region Association: Pacific Northwest |
my guess is 50% of George's mailing list don't have cars anymore so total 914's is around 15,000. I don't where you came up with the 50% number but there is a very high percentage of people that own more than one 914. Let's say only 25% of the 33,000 don't have cars. That's 24,750 that do. Now let's say that only 10% of that number have 2 cars. That's 2,475 for an estimated total of 27,225. Now the 27,225 number doesn't include people that aren't hooked into the whole 914 community. That number alone is 1/3 of the 83,000. I am still on American Iron catalogs that follow me around wherever I have moved. I built a 390 Ford engine in 1990 I haven't order crap since then!!!! Once you are on a list its hard to get off it as its advertising like a shotgun blast-coverage! 50% waste... I still believe there aren't more than 20,000 cars left, I don't count the rotted parts cars thou...they need to be able to be driven |
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