Our best estimate of how many USA 914s survive in 2007, Save the 914! |
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914/4: 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 914/6: 70 71 72
Our best estimate of how many USA 914s survive in 2007, Save the 914! |
JeffBowlsby |
Nov 13 2007, 07:21 PM
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#1
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914 Wiring Harnesses Group: Members Posts: 8,533 Joined: 7-January 03 From: San Ramon CA Member No.: 104 Region Association: None |
Here are the only data points we have:
1. The 1977 HO recall which only applied to USA 914s and which was issued a year after production ceased, indicates that approximately 83,000 914s (only including 914/4s) were imported to the USA. Sidebar: If ~115,000 914/4s were produced then approximately 32,000 went to other non-USA markets. So the USA received about 2/3s of total production. 2. Marketing literature indicates 1000 1974 914 LE cars were built for the USA market for the 1974 model year. Today, 33 years after the LE cars were produced, approximately 200 surviving LE cars are on the registry. We continue to find more LE cars regularly even after 25 years of searching and recordkeeping, and its the only control group of 914s where records are available. Presumably all were imported to the USA, because they were USA market cars. So for discussion, if we assume that 250 LE cars remain, thats a 25% survival rate. BTW, most of those known surviving LE cars are drivable and not parts cars. So from that info: A. How many 914s can be estimated to remain now in 2007? B. At the calculated 'attrition rate', how many 914s might statistically still be with us in 5, 10, 20 years? I know that assumptions will need to be made and an exact number of survivors will probably never be known, all I am interested in is an educated guess based on the info we have. Please post the projection and supporting math if its easy to comprehend. Attached image(s) |
GWN7 |
Nov 20 2007, 02:09 PM
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#2
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King of Road Trips Group: Members Posts: 6,280 Joined: 31-December 02 From: Winnipeg, MB, Canada Member No.: 56 Region Association: Northstar Region |
How many phone calls did it take?
Of those 100 cars, how many do you know of? Good job (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif) |
1970 Neun vierzehn |
Nov 20 2007, 03:16 PM
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#3
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Advanced Member Group: Members Posts: 3,199 Joined: 16-March 06 From: cincinnati, ohio Member No.: 5,727 |
How many phone calls did it take? Of those 100 cars, how many do you know of? Good job (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif) Seven (7) different phone numbers were referenced and called before I got in the "right room" and got to talk to someone who could help me. This year to date, I've seen a total of 2 914s on the road here in the greater Cincinnati area. There are several in PCA that show up for the ocassional, casual concours event, but I've only seen them through photos in the newsletter, as I work Saturdays and Sundays when these events are typically held. This Forum is inhabited by 2 or 3 members from the Cincinnati area,and I've met an individual from the Dayton area last year at the 2006 FFC. There are also several members that are in the northern climes of Ohio, based on the locales that are listed below their avatar. Paul |
davep |
Nov 20 2007, 08:57 PM
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#4
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914 Historian Group: Benefactors Posts: 5,154 Joined: 13-October 03 From: Burford, ON, N0E 1A0 Member No.: 1,244 Region Association: Canada |
This Forum is inhabited by 2 or 3 members from the Cincinnati area,and I've met an individual from the Dayton area last year at the 2006 FFC. There are also several members that are in the northern climes of Ohio, based on the locales that are listed below their avatar. So far I have 54 members listed for Ohio and 9 alone in the Cincinnati area. |
1970 Neun vierzehn |
Nov 27 2007, 10:41 AM
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#5
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Advanced Member Group: Members Posts: 3,199 Joined: 16-March 06 From: cincinnati, ohio Member No.: 5,727 |
So far I have 54 members listed for Ohio ... The number of registered 914s in Ohio is 98 as of the first 10 months of 2007. Mine would be 99. So I'd think it's a safe bet to say there are 100 licensed, registered 914s in Ohio. (Only 54 are members here, according to Dave). That's not counting cars that are not registered with the BMV 'cause they are track cars, undergoing restoration, are parts cars, or the owners just don't bother to keep the license/registration current. If Kentucky numbers 16 members, maybe there are a total of 30. If Indaiana lists 23 members. perhaps there are 40 surviving 914s. 100 (Ohio) + 30(Ky) + 40 (In)= 170 for three midwest states. 170 divided by 3....56.6. Let's call it 50. 50 914s/state X 49 =2450. (IMG:style_emoticons/default/blink.gif) Add California cars (are the 10K members, or real registrations?) I can't imagine Hawaii, Alaska, N. Dakota, Maine, for instance, are going to have 50 914s. On the other hand, places like Florida, Texas, Illinois, New York may very well have more. It's hard for me to fathom that the 914 survival rate could be as low as 25%. Paul |
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