Our best estimate of how many USA 914s survive in 2007, Save the 914! |
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914/4: 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 914/6: 70 71 72
Our best estimate of how many USA 914s survive in 2007, Save the 914! |
JeffBowlsby |
Nov 13 2007, 07:21 PM
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#1
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914 Wiring Harnesses Group: Members Posts: 8,510 Joined: 7-January 03 From: San Ramon CA Member No.: 104 Region Association: None |
Here are the only data points we have:
1. The 1977 HO recall which only applied to USA 914s and which was issued a year after production ceased, indicates that approximately 83,000 914s (only including 914/4s) were imported to the USA. Sidebar: If ~115,000 914/4s were produced then approximately 32,000 went to other non-USA markets. So the USA received about 2/3s of total production. 2. Marketing literature indicates 1000 1974 914 LE cars were built for the USA market for the 1974 model year. Today, 33 years after the LE cars were produced, approximately 200 surviving LE cars are on the registry. We continue to find more LE cars regularly even after 25 years of searching and recordkeeping, and its the only control group of 914s where records are available. Presumably all were imported to the USA, because they were USA market cars. So for discussion, if we assume that 250 LE cars remain, thats a 25% survival rate. BTW, most of those known surviving LE cars are drivable and not parts cars. So from that info: A. How many 914s can be estimated to remain now in 2007? B. At the calculated 'attrition rate', how many 914s might statistically still be with us in 5, 10, 20 years? I know that assumptions will need to be made and an exact number of survivors will probably never be known, all I am interested in is an educated guess based on the info we have. Please post the projection and supporting math if its easy to comprehend. Attached image(s) |
davep |
Nov 14 2007, 09:53 AM
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#2
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914 Historian Group: Benefactors Posts: 5,143 Joined: 13-October 03 From: Burford, ON, N0E 1A0 Member No.: 1,244 Region Association: Canada |
I'm with Tim on that one. I'm sure that George does not want to waste his money sending out a catalog to someone that no longer owns a 914. Each one probably costs a few dollars with postage.
I'm sure that a significant percentage own more than one 914. I have not completed my data entry yet, so cannot provide actual numbers, but I was surprised at the number of VIN's associated with member names. I would have guessed that less than half the owners would be on the AA list. If it was possible on the next catalog, I'd like to see a link to 914World website, and an encouragement to list the VIN of every possessed 914. That would help vendors know the potential market size. I think it could be a synergistic relationship. |
TeenerTim |
Nov 14 2007, 10:22 AM
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#3
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 597 Joined: 22-October 07 From: Norfolk,VA Member No.: 8,253 Region Association: MidAtlantic Region |
Although not very accurate, you could work backwards by counting the number of cars we have cut up, wrecked, or trashed. My second 914 was built from one good car and one that had broken in half. If I count the half-car, I have owned 4 914s. That gives me an attrition rate of 25%.
I would estimate the low side of remaining cars is not less than 25% and the high side is probably not higher than 50%. Somewhere between 30% and 40% is probably close. |
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