Our best estimate of how many USA 914s survive in 2007, Save the 914! |
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914/4: 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 914/6: 70 71 72
Our best estimate of how many USA 914s survive in 2007, Save the 914! |
JeffBowlsby |
Nov 13 2007, 07:21 PM
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#1
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914 Wiring Harnesses Group: Members Posts: 8,510 Joined: 7-January 03 From: San Ramon CA Member No.: 104 Region Association: None |
Here are the only data points we have:
1. The 1977 HO recall which only applied to USA 914s and which was issued a year after production ceased, indicates that approximately 83,000 914s (only including 914/4s) were imported to the USA. Sidebar: If ~115,000 914/4s were produced then approximately 32,000 went to other non-USA markets. So the USA received about 2/3s of total production. 2. Marketing literature indicates 1000 1974 914 LE cars were built for the USA market for the 1974 model year. Today, 33 years after the LE cars were produced, approximately 200 surviving LE cars are on the registry. We continue to find more LE cars regularly even after 25 years of searching and recordkeeping, and its the only control group of 914s where records are available. Presumably all were imported to the USA, because they were USA market cars. So for discussion, if we assume that 250 LE cars remain, thats a 25% survival rate. BTW, most of those known surviving LE cars are drivable and not parts cars. So from that info: A. How many 914s can be estimated to remain now in 2007? B. At the calculated 'attrition rate', how many 914s might statistically still be with us in 5, 10, 20 years? I know that assumptions will need to be made and an exact number of survivors will probably never be known, all I am interested in is an educated guess based on the info we have. Please post the projection and supporting math if its easy to comprehend. Attached image(s) |
JeffBowlsby |
Nov 19 2007, 10:22 AM
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#2
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914 Wiring Harnesses Group: Members Posts: 8,510 Joined: 7-January 03 From: San Ramon CA Member No.: 104 Region Association: None |
Based on the data available to us, 25% of 914 LE cars survive today in 2007. I think this number is on the high side in terms of an overall survival rate for all 914s because the LEs were made near the end of the production, the earlier cars have been on the road longer and their survival rate should be lower. The LEs may have also received better care because of their rarity, so their survival rate may be marginally higher than the overall survival rate but lets use 25% as a base line and consider the balance as a contingency.
I am not a statistician but, if 25% of all 914s imported to the USA survive today, then 25% of 83,000 = 21,000 surviving cars in 2007 as an approximate maximum. This also means that 83,000-21,000=62,000 USA cars have been destroyed through 2007. 34 years have passed since the midpoint 1973 model year of 914 production. 62,000 cars/34 years = 1,800 cars per year have been destroyed as the average attrition rate over the last 34 years. 1,800 cars per year/62,000 total cars destroyed = 2.94% per year average attrition rate At the 2.94% attrition rate, 600 cars are currently destroyed each year. So at this attrition rate, here are the projected quantities of surviving 914s for the near future: Today 2007 = 21,000 cars 5 yrs 2012 = 18,000 cars 10 yrs 2017 = 16,000 cars Garrold, I checked with California DMV and they do not release vehicle registration data without a court order, so meaningful information is not available to us here. Save the 914! |
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