Autonomous vehicles will render our old cars useless, and therefore worthless.

I don't think so.

Horse people talked about these same concerns ever since horses stopped being beasts of burden. Today, the recreational use of horses has increased the horse population to it's highest number in the past fifty years. Considering the cost of ownership, shrinking countryside, escalating environmental restriction, and many other issues we still have a high and healthy horse population.

Autonomous vehicles will hit us fast, an avalanche of them is on the way. Level four driverless cars will be taking the kids to school, circling back to take me to work, and then picking up the dog at the groomer. Driverless cars make good sense, and for many reasons. We all get the concept. After all the safe shuttling is done, I think a lot of properly wired guys and girls will feel like taking a good old car for a real drive. I don't think we'll see people lose desire for driving, in fact I think the opposite is likely.

Check the oil, enjoy your ride, your living in the days of the wild old west!

I recently said that if someone could buy an entire vintage race group, and owned a track, the demand for weekend warriors to rent a race car will begin to increase in the near future.

In 10-20 years there will be a mass reduction in fossil fuel availability. It will be very expensive to drive a 914 if you can find gas.

10 - 20 years? Where did that info. come from?

As John Forbes said to me yesterday - They will have to pry my 914 from my cold, dead heads.

I agree with Mike. It's inevitable that we will become less dependent on oil. Dads car will someday be electric or natural gas...

Since it's a /6, I'm willing to oblige...

The Feds just signed some BS to reduce fossil fuel consumption by 2020. We are going to have to run our 914's with seaweed...

E85 will be the temporary answer for another 5-10 years, BUT in the long run electricity will probably prevail.


I would LOVE it if they made E85 available at every gas station... But thats the selfish HP greedy person I am...

Wonder why produce prices have gone through the roof? Land by me is used to grow corn for ethanol rather than for food. Landowners have raised their lease prices (because ethanol makes money) to a point where farmers either grow corn for ethanol or jack up the price of vegetables to afford the inflated land lease prices.

When food competes with fuel we got big problems. You're paying at the pump and at the checkout line.

So what happens if the insurance companies decide that they don’t want to pay out for driver car accidents anymore and only insure driverless cars?

Yes Virginia, it looks like gas is here to stay for a while. (or we'll make it in backyard stills to keep classics running)


Autoblog.com Dec 23

Sebastian Blanco
Once again, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) it polishing its crystal ball and sees nothing but good things as the world continues to burn its product for many decades to come. In fact, in the 2015 World Oil Outlook (WOO), OPEC thinks its future will shine so bright that the new report says, "By 2040, only 6% of the passenger car stock and 5.3% of commercial vehicles will be running on non-oil fuels." That's a truly depressing figure to anyone who's been watching the proliferation of plug-in and rooting for alt-fuel vehicles. (Not that everyone agrees with OPEC)

I agree with Steve and I'm digging a big hole in my backyard for my secret fuel cell, please don't take my steering wheel away.
Let's see I'm 69 and my knees are bad I can't remember why I went to the bathroom, wonder how many years before my car is just a collectors item.

Gee, they told us we were going run out of fossil fuel BEFORE 1980's. Duh !!

There will always be fuel. The government can mandate what ever they want. But when you step in front of a fuel truck your going to get run over. There is only so much you can legislate before the people wise up. Can you imagine the lower middle class having to choose between a tesla or life beyond the reach of their bicycle. Trapped in life by the good intensions of some out of touch social engineer? Can't happen.

The middle class will be gone long before oil.

Agree with Rick.

Also, do you believe that tractor trailers, railroad freight trains, airliners, and ships will be EVs in 20 years? If refineries are making diesel and jet fuel, they'll be making gasoline too.

Please tell me that you don't really believe that insurance companies pay anything out of their own pockets when you file a claim. . . Just WHO do you think they get that money from to begin with?? That's right, YOU (and everyone else).

They will simply do what those bastards always do and raise their rates.

I don't think "running out of oil" is the issue within the next 50 years, but the question arises of "what is its pricepoint?" Will we still see it as viable if gas hits $10 a gallon? What about $15? $20? There's a book I read in college by Christopher Steiner called "$20 per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change our Lives for the Better." It's absurdly utopian in many ways, but thought provoking as to how change will be forced upon us.

I think we'll replace oil (not completely) out of a shortage and price hike, it'll still be in the ground and stuff, but geopolitical issues will halt its mass importation and our desires to buy it from certain sellers. That said, old cars will still be fun and able to drive, just more expensive. I doubt it would even hurt values all that much; afterall, who buys a classic for affordable driving? Maybe EV swaps will become more popular and DDs will adapt, but the classics will still be driving.

It really is in our Nation Interest (security) to wean our dependence on foreign fossil fuels.

Propaganda designed to socially engineer islands of people that are easier controlled. The free market will dictate the end result. The sky is falling! the Sky is falling!

With non self-driving cars I see 2 scenarios; one is that insurance companies stop writing policies. Or the second is that the DOT says that non self-driving cars are too dangerous and no longer allowed on public roads. I merely went with non-political choice…

This begs an interesting question. The owner has no control (outside of maintenance issues) and should there be an accident between two autonomous cars the manufacturer would be at fault. No insurance issues for the owners. But I could foresee the manufacturers stone walling and settlements taking forever. In all reality I would think manufacturers are opening themselves up to an extrodianry amount of liability.

Average MPG for a compact in the EU is well over 60 MPG with many in the lower 70,s.

Why are we not seeing those cars?
Profit?

Santayana would like a word with you.

Imperial and US gallons are different size. They also have MUCH smaller cars and engines than we Muricans do.

There is much research being done to develop diesel engines for small airplanes. The reason is, diesel engines burn jet fuel quite nicely. Jet fuel is essentially kerosene. When oil was first refined it was to produce kerosene. Gasoline was (at the time) a useless by-product. Kerosene, (jet fuel) as a basic fuel will be able to power tractor trailers, railroad trains, airliners and ships. In other words just about all internal combustion engines. It is cheap to refine and even cheaper if you only need to refine one type of fuel. Water may also become an energy source. It's ironic that the elements of water when properly combined produce a tremendous amount of energy. Some people say that will never work. The same people say batteries will never be efficient to store enough electricity to drive an automobile. They are the same who told Orville and Wilbur it will never fly. Research is constant. So are the naysayers. I put my faith in research.

There is enough fossil fuels to last our lifetimes so no worries about quantity. Delivery systems will always be suspect though.

For price, I don't think many foresaw a glut of oil happening in 2015 and US gas prices dropping below $2/gal as large producers in OPEC trying to squeeze out shale-entrapped oil producers to again corner the market. This cheap oil will also hinder development of electric/hydrogen/alternative fuel vehicles.

For driver-less vehicles, it can be done and maybe someday will be widely accepted. If they're GPS guided and video-driven, all it will take is some jackasses on the side of the road or driving beside/behind the vehicle with a GPS-scrambler and/or laser video inhibitor to cause the vehicle to crash or be diverted to crash to cause great difficulties in mass acceptance.

Keep in mind that airliners with very advanced auto-pilot systems for taking off, cruising, and landing still had a couple of pilots sitting in the driver's seats.

Harold Ickes...1943.

I would support E85 more if the US made it with sugar cane and not heavily subsidized corn.

Then Sugar would be heavily subsidized... Probably the last thing the American diet needs... That being said maybe if that happened the sugar industry would stop the push for putting sugar in every bit of food..

Well.....cars in Europe the milage is in 'liters per kilometer' so I highly doubt if that is true.
UK was the only EU country using the Imperial Gallon and like Canada they changed to the metric system in the early 1970's.

The second part of your statment is true and the number one reason they are getting such milage.
These cars also will not meet DOT safety standards, if brought up to DOT standards I'd bet they would weigh up to a 1000 lbs heavier.

BTW Rich isn't those 60mpg cars VW's with diesel engines?

But the American sugar industry is high fructose corn syrup. Cane sugar has been on the ropes for decades…

and if they produce kerosene the waste fuel left will always be a form of gasoline. So free enterprise will always rule. A free society will never stand for the complete abolishment of a fuel source that allows freedom of movement beyond the reach of you legs. There is a very small segment of our population that can afford a hybrid that will go further than 40 miles. And if fuel needs to be subsidized to exist it's not a viable source.

Wait until your self driving car strictly follows speed limits because it will for liability reasons. Unless you are in a traffic jam or have time to kill you will be switching to manual mode.

Outside of 4wd off road vehicles what makes you so sure you will be able to switch a self-driving car to a manual mode?

I think manual mode would be a must just as having a steering wheel is a must. The auto-pilot doesn't need a steering wheel but could imagine in the near term all cars will continue to have steering wheels.


One thing I was wondering with autopilot cars how they handle obstructions in the road. Obstruction could be anything like a cardboard box, wooden box, a cement block, or paper rolling across the road.

How about mammals in the road? A deer? A small dog? A child? How do these cars handle this? Could it tell the difference between a small dog crossing the road vs a rolled up piece of paper blowing across the road?

What if a rolled up paper blows onto the road causing the car to stop determining its an obstruction or mammal in the road and then the paper stops in the middle of the road? Will the car ever start moving? A human should be able to determine it's a piece of paper and drive through it.