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I always try and make sure that I sneeze on my hands before I shake. If I can't get my hand up that fast I go ahead and elbow the people around me down.

I amazes me how many people don't cover their mouths when they cough. I especially dislike it when they cough on me as I'm walking down the aisle with the medicine that they're staring at.

I've been fairly lucky though, so far - I generally don't get sick. (I used to claim that I never got sick, but the last time I did, I was in the hospital the next morning for a week). Any time I start to feel under the weather, I go for lotsa OJ, Hot and sour soup and zinc. It seems to work.

Can we discuss this without it turning political and getting the topic locked? We have been warned once already.

First everyone needs to understand what a Pandemic is. By definition it when an infection disease spreads over a large region. This may be localized to a continent or at it worst over the entire world. It doesn’t mean a large number of people have to die and it also doesn’t have to mean the end of the world as we know it. For example AID is a Pandemic and has been for many years, but life still goes on. So this very well be a “Pandemic”, but not the end of the world.

And Andy, your facts about the numbers of deaths with respect to the common cold may be correct, but they don’t match up to the counts from previous flu pandemics. So while you may be correct that this ends up being no worse than the common cold, you could also be very wrong.

1918 “Spanish Flu” resulted in about 600K dead in the US with around 50 million dead worldwide.
1958 “Asian Flu” resulted in about 70K dead in the US with around 2 million dead worldwide.
1969 “Hong Kong Flu” resulted in about 34K dead in the US with around 1 million dead worldwide.

There was also the “Swine Flu” scare and resulting overreaction by health leaders in 1976. Nobody can say right now if this is going to be another 1918 or a 1976. My personal opinion is it will not be another 1918. But frankly we just don’t know yet. So I suspect that those in charge are trying to walk the fine line between over and under reacting. So far I would tend to think that the response from the government organizations has been good, but frankly there isn’t much new for the media to talk about right now other than this.

Oh, and I love the Steven King "The Stand" reference. One of my favorite books!

Does it have to spread like wildfire to be a pandemic? You have stuff like Ebola that has an extremely high mortality rate, but luckily is not spread via airborne methods, so it tends to kill quickly, but spread slowly and burn out before it spreads to a wide area. Flu doesn't spread like wildfire. (Going back to the previous "The Stand" referencecs), everyone is not going to have this in a few days. Even with the deadly 1918 pandemic, that took three years to run it's course and even then it is estimated that only 1/2 of the population caught it and even then it had an estimated low mortality rate of less than 5%.

Again, I don't think anyone should panic. I certainly am not. But I do think people are putting their heads in the sand and dismissing the possability too early. I think the smart thing to do is just try to stay informed, take normal "flu season" style precautions and see where this is heading. Hopefully it will go nowhere.

Personally I am more worried about the potential panic causing a slowdown of the economic recovery than everyone dying and having to meet up in Vegas or Boulder for the final good vs. evil showdown.

PETA, which exists for reasons to become breathless, immediately suggested swine flu was a good reason to switch from pork products to “delicious veggie dogs and soy sausage.”

Seems to me, if we’d eaten all of the pigs, we wouldn’t be having this problem in the first place. Count on me to redouble my efforts to address this situation forthwith. I promise to put some real mustard into the task, if you know what I’m saying.

Flu, swine and the bottom line

I drink lots of OJ anyway. Costco sells 4-packs of Tropicana not-from-concentrate juice (2 gallons in a box). I go through 1 of these a week.

it seems the point being missed here is that the POTENCIAL for widespread illness and related deaths is obvious. would you prefer that NOTHING be mentioned of the s.f. in the media and people go on about their unhygenic ways? if this thing was all down played and went sideways, heads would be demanded. damned if they do and damned if the don't. if people should develop a secondary illness such as pneumonia you may rest assured that people are going to die. PLENTY of them too. emergency rooms will be so packed the waiting times will be unimaginable and people will be turned away. flat out. how people can be so cavalier about this situation is beyond me. people ARE dying. this is just getting started.

I make it a point never to touch anything in an airport unless I absolutely have to. Been doing that for years. Also try not to touch doorknobs, etc. at work, especially after noticing who does and doesn't wash their hands after using the bathroom.

I think there is a conspiracy. A conspiracy to get us to wash our hands, cover our coughs and sneezes. Stay home if we are sick, get immunized.

The problem with people who think this is not a real threat is that they don't accept that what merely gives them a fever, diarhea, and an achy feeling will kill a 4 month old or a 70 year old fighting a survivable cancer. You may not directly come into contact with either but the people you infect will...

I am right there with ya till you say get immunized. No thanks.

But isn't that true for just about any other virus and a lot of bacteria and while we're at it, drinking a lot of booze can probably kill a 4 month old too ...

I never said this didn't have the potential to become something big.
What i'm trying to say is that there's thousands of other "threats" that have the same (or bigger) potential, yet this one thing gets singled out and treated by the media as if it was the end of the world.

Andy

"The sky is falling, the sky is falling" ... Chicken Little

Now, back to your normal programming .................................

I don't know how I feel yet on the immunization issue. For example I and everyone in my family gets a flu shot ever year. I think it's a smart thing to do. However there are a number of people who for whatever reason don't want to get a flu shot. My favorite reason they give is the "it will cause you to get the flu". Yeah, whatever. Anyhow...

Should they require flu shots in a serious Pandemic? Lets say this does take off and has a slow burn over months and people are getting sick and dying. Lets say that when the shots are eventually ready, that it is bad, but not "The Stand" or plague bad. At what point can it be a serious enough of a health emergency that they can require shots?

Part of me thinks... "Hey, don't want a shot? Fine with me, drop dead. Darwin takes care of another one.". The other part of me thinks... "Do your duty and preserve the country. Let them give you the the shot."

I am curious. What do you think is going on right now that is new (common cold, drunk driver, etc. doesn't count as those are existing risks) that has a higher potential for killing tens of thousands of people in this country over the next 12 months? I can think of a number of things that might happen that could kill more, but the likelyhood of them happening in the next 12 months is pretty small.

The reason this is hitting the headlines is that today's journalists ( and many of the unwashed) tend to believe that whatever is placed into a movie is fact.

For example.......

10 things Movies Teach us About Virus Outbreaks

Seriously, this is a good wakeup call on how the joys of globalization can spread diseases from one end of the globe to the other within days. And, the next one might be a little more lethal. If you learn nothing else, remember that anything public spreads the flu- door handles, money, planes, busses, etc, and that touching your eyes, nose, or mouth lets the virus in.

Why does it have to be new?
Do people really care if they die from something "new" or something "old"?
Andy

Well, yes they do if it is a new risk and you can do something about it. Or at least I would assume that most people would feel that way.

So by that argument if a killer is loose in your neighborhood you would prefer to not know about it. Basically a “if it’s my time to die” attitude?

I agree that the news media can/has/will blow this out of proportion. However the reason this is worth talking about is that there are things that can be done to reduce risk. This is not a “Life causes death” or “Meteor may fall from the sky and destroy earth” type of thing.

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I absolutely agree with you as it regards your statement that there are many other threats that kill the same number or more people. It is also a point of fact that we know just about exactly how many people will die from drunk drivers, cancer, heart disease, etc... The suprize comes when it varies by more or less... That is news to those of us in public health fields. This has the potential to vastly increase the number of expected deaths from influenza not just in Mexico but everywhere because of just how mobile a society we are. People in rural Nebraska are probably not as vulnerable as people in Beijing. Lots of people in a relatively confined space. We may look at media pictures of the Chinese or Japanese wearing masks as they walk down the street but it is very culturally relevent to them.

We expect the deaths that some have quoted. Without a doubt that is not as insignificant as some seem to feel... What we don't want to see is that for that number to triple or quadruple. Or worse...

I am actually very pleased with the measured response the American Government has given this. We really need to do no more than make immunizations available and encourage people to cover cough and sneezes, wash hands, and shut down and quarantine people who are known to be infected, ie: close schools for a few days when kids get sick.

There is nothing new here. H1N1 was one of the expected strains for this year which makes it basically the common flu. What public health wants to avoid is pandemic spread. That will change the morbidity that many of you minimize to large mortality numbers.

As for the media, I have ignored the popular media for years. Pick your source carefully for a more intelligent report. The networks are selling soap not reporting news. There job is to make you stay in your chair... They do that with T&A and sensationalizm. Lets face it, Angelina Jolie could sit in a chair and read bible verses in something low cut and most of us would listen, sort of...

Bottom line here is there is nothing to fear really, just wash your hands, cover your cough and sneezes, if you get sick stay home, your choice if you want to get immunized. I could care less... That is your pathology. But when you do get sick refer to the stay home comment. No one wants your nasty virus shedding ass around until your better...

If i wake up dead tomorrow morning, i really don't give a damn how i got there!
Apparently, you'd rather die of Schwein Flu than Aids, which is OK with me. Really. You gotta stay with the hip crowd ...

Speaking of Aids, if that Virus ever figures out how to get airborne, we'll have a real killer on our hands ...
Andy

Swine "FLU"? Oh, I thought you meant Swine "FLEW"! I ran outside and searched the sky, but I musta missed 'em ........................

The Cap'n

Damn John .... did you grow wings again?

They're up there. Just keep lookin'

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I'm also very tired of the hysteria that the media is creating over the "swine flu". It has nothing to do with swine, but we're all running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

Get real, the influenza viruses come around every year! This is just another round, and not the end of the world. Most of this can be blamed directly on the media frenzy! Anything to sell more soap!

Yes, a conspiracy! another way to make the people turn to the government as their savior.

part of the New World Order master plan.

Does anyone remember when Ronald Regan said:

"in our obsession with antagonisms of the moment, we often forget how much unites all the members of humanity. Perhaps we need some outside, universal threat to make us recognize this common bond. I occasionally think, how quickly our differences worldwide would vanish if we were facing an alien threat from outside this world. And yet, I ask is not an alien force ALREADY
among us?"

:0
I'VE BEEN DISCOVERED!

That's not the attitude.

If a killer is loose in my neighborhood it does not matter if I know or not, because I already take precautions since this is a free society and there is *always* the chance of a killer in my neighborhood.

If, having already taken all reasonable precautions, it's my time, well, then, it was...

I think the real danger that the CDC and others are worried about is that as the N. Hemisphere heat's up for summer, the flu will migrate to the S. Hemisphere until Fall. What they really are worried about is that it might reassort itself again and become stronger in a "less protected" population re. S. America and Africa etc. and show up in the N. Hemi. in the fall, even stronger and somewhat changed, some change that will make the fall serum ineffective. This is the scenario that could bring on a pandemic on the scale of the "'Spanish Flu" of 1918.....50 million died in that one....I don't think they're overreacting at all......except, of course, the media...and they live for that .......

For me, the swine flue was a teaching moment. It taught me something about our Federal government. When it first became apparent that Mexico had a never-before-seen flu epidemic, and that it was spreading - immediatley - immediatley - our government was issuing statements about how "closing the border is not the thing to do". Of course, the press did not challenge them on this. Containment is the first rule of preventing the spread of a disease, but our government was more concerned with special interests than her own legal - yes legal - citizens. Then, days later, when the disease clearly spread into the U.S., they were bantering the lie "what use is closing the barn door once the horses are out". Obviously, the answer is "to not let more horses out, you idiot!"

If this was a pandemic (and may still resurface as one), it has shown me that keeping the southern border open at all costs is a fundamental rule of this (and most likley the previous) administration. And that really sucks for those of us who live in Texas.

As was beaten here:
I think that its proper that we're informed about the issue, but the media blowing it outta proportion is silly. The reality is that it doesnt matter how you die - dead is dead and at the moment, there are a number of other ways, most which are at least as likely as succumbing to swine (bird) flu.

Also, I don't get flu shots. I did one year, didn't get sick or anything, no bad reactions, but that just helps protect you from a few different strains that they think will make the rounds. It could be that they're wrong, you get the shot and then catch (and maybe die) from a different strain that they didn't expect.

I also dont play the lotto.

Here's my list Nothing is politically related)

Someone breaking into my house
My dog running away and the collar not working
Poor QA from China results in the death of my dog
Poor QA from a DoD contractor results in the death of my brother
Someone assaulting female members of my family (or friends)
The death of someone close to me (myself included) due to drunk driving (Deaths related to drunk driving - 12,998 (2007 - MADD))
The death of someone close to me (myself included) due to a freak accident
A person with mental issues sends a bullet in the direction of myself or someone close to me causing death, dismemberment, disability
A crazy family member of a friend performing above with intent
A chemical spill that results in long term respiratory distress
A detached retina
Korea sparking off a semi-nuclear attack
Additional terrorist forces sparking off another widespread attack on the US (abroad or here - because there's no way in hell that we can maintain complete safety with any relative freedom)
A full economic meltdown in a year or so due to current attempts to fix the economy
China cutting us off from money
Tornado wiping out family / friends
Going to a hospital where people don't know / respect / fear my mother
An animal that is a carrier for a disease (lymes, rabies, leprosy) infecting my dog or myself.
A plane from a nearby AFB landing without intent in my house.
A car not making the turn in front of my house and coming to rest inside the house.
Someone stealing my car (but not carjacking me, not concerned about that for some reason)
Foreign body striking earth with devastating effect.
Watching someone close to me deal with a degenerative disease.
A return of carpal tunnel preventing me from turning any wrenches on my cars.
An accidental stick to my Mom, Stepmom or friends working in a Hospital resulting in Hepatitis, HIV, ect
Dying of regular of flu (CDC estimated an average of 36,000 (2004) deaths a year as a result of the "normal" flu.)

Mitigating factors where applicable:
I'm armed
I try to ensure that I maintain situational awareness
I don't simply shrug off things that are potentially serious, but keep an eye out and an open mind.
I have a zombie plan.
Additional health items (embolisms, stroke, heart attack) left out as this was going to a friend of mine initially and her potential risk factors are likely different from mine.

I think declaring the border closed, while watching the people keep coming anyway, would have exposed the emperor as having no clothes (to anyone who doesn't already know yet)... i.e., the U.S. does not control its own border.

One more and we'll be done here...

"if i wake up dead tomorrow..." i assure you, that can't happen.

can pigs be zombies?

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yes, it seems they can. First he sneezes on you. Then the little bastard bides his time. Waiting. And watching. Then he eats your brain.

This is going to be interesting!

Since yesterday, i'm experiencing "Flu like symptoms". You know, sore throat, running nose and the like.

At least the other admins have all the passwords to the server, in case i don't make it ...
Andy

PS: I blame it on all you pigs out there! You know who you are ...

I've had similar stuff recently too andy...

I think its just allergies in my case though

"Hey! You pigs wanna give us a push .................?"

The Cap'n

I know this won't ease anyone's paranoia but the CDC did not recommend the border closure because the outbreak had already surfaced in the Northeast, doesn't do any good to close the barn door after the horse is gone....and they are watching border crossings and the like...as usual....the sieve of a border we have.....

Me, I wash my hands before I go to the bathroom. When I follow some of these slobs into the bathroom, I figure I don't want their doorknob germs on my perfectly sterile and wonderful body.

just for Andy...from graphjam

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Nice graph, horrible grammar ...
Andy