Dang!
They just closed schools here- until Monday. earlier, I saw on the news of no cases in Alabama, and a few hours later, two cases in a local school.

FREAKY.

Hey- Ft Worth just did the same- but for TWO WEEKS!!

Anybody here got opinions? Dr Evil? Resident health professional, what do you think? Is it a crisis? What could happen?

I'm waiting for my school to close here in Socal. I have an infected toe after I crushed it doing some house work...I'm supposed to go in and have it checked by the doctor to get an antibiotic, but there's no way I'm going to a hospital now!

Considering how close I am to the border, it's only a matter of time.

Oh well, more time to work on the teener I guess!

Google it and read up on it.

If pigs could fly, it would spread faster.

The Gubermint has stopped short of declaring a Pandemic probably because of what happened in 1976.

A *lot* more people die each year of the common cold in the US than have of the Swine Flu, even if you project the current estimated numbers over 12 month.

Same goes for Mexico and the other countries where it's been.


It's all just media hype. The next best thing. Fear sells ...
Andy

Mostly media hype... watching the news is such a joke.

The common cold kills between 20,000 and 36,000 people in the US each year (depending on who you ask).


*** Current Standings ***

Kills for the Common Cold per Week: 384 - 692
Kills for the Swine Flu per Week: 2


Andy

I have been hearing about this all day. Lots of crazy stuff. So far all I can say for sure is it's alot of media hype.

Now if people start dropping by the thousands in the next week then I will get nervous.



I am a bit of a conspiracy geek and they have been trying to get forced vaccinations nation wide for children for years. What better way then to scare the shit out of everyone.

There was an article on cnn.com today that stated that the normal flu had killed 13,000 people in the US so far this year (current stat to april 18 if I remember).

So why aren't we panicking over that???

I don't get it.

according to the CDC, only 2700 cases are confirmed. or did I miss something

Panic... hysteria!!!!


they sent us a warning about it, including symptoms


sounded like a flu :/

Drunk drivers cause a LOT more deaths than any flu, cold, or other communicable diseases ...................... The Cap'n

How about a vaccine against alcohol then?

Castration?

Only 20,000 deaths a year due to alcohol related auto accidents a year in the US. Now, there are 100,000 total deatyhs each year due to alcohol related activities.

And while 20,000 sounds like a lot (well, it kinda is) it's a little less than .07% of the population of the US. Roughly 300,000,000.

Idiot press blows everthing out of proportion.

The focus has been on the deaths. We may indeed reach pandemic levels but the people who die from this will be at the extremes of age. The very young, the very old, and those who have chronic illnesses.

But don't be fooled into thinking it is all hype. Put one person with this flu on an airplane with 150 people and 40 or 50 will probably get it. Those 40 or 50 go home to their household of 3 to 4 and... You see how it spreads logrhythmically. Included in the group who get it will certainly include those groups most vulnerable. There will be deaths.

That's true, but how is it different from the normal flu?

From what I've heard/read it is likely milder than the normal flu. So it's not really a threat (or at least not more of one) to most people, particularly normal, healthy ones.

Totally different answer for people that are susceptible to it. Elderly, babies, etc. My father has a weak immune system because of anti-rejection drugs. He should be particularly weary of flu-season in general. My elderly grandparents too, but this is not appreciably different than when the powers that predict such things guessed wrong about which flu strains would be prevalent one flu season. The flu shots they gave out were basically worthless against the strains that were being passed around that season. It happens.

I'm not saying it's completely made up, it's just a disproportionate response. Standard media feeding frenzy that scares people more than it should. Same things as the bird flu panic a year or two ago. Anybody worried about SARS anymore?

its supposed to be a bit more extreme than the normal flu, but the issue is with the vaccine so thats why I guess it's an issue.

I'm not prepared to get all scared and crazy, so I'll just let it be and not fret about it right now. And yes, I am very scared of sars still

Agreed and isnt it the ability of emerging flu strains to mutate into real killers that has most healthcare professionals nervous? I know in talking to my MD freinds its a case that this flu strain could die out or turn into something that kills tens of thousands to millions.

Government officials in US appear to be taking measured steps. I'm in Japan right now and they are screening everyone coming into the country. Think about risk of millions of people who transit in subways here.

If you get bored, read "The Great Influenza" a book about the 1918 epidemic. That flu dispropotionately killed the healthy and strong ie ages 20-40. While this current event seems like hysteria, that event killed 25-50 million. Any major epidemic will shut down our underprepared healthcare system.

No offense to Mexicans, but the reason they're making such a big deal out of Swine flu (which is completely unrelated to pork products, by the way) is because it came out of Mexico.

Oh no, it's a foreign virus, it's going to kill us all!

I agree with those who have said it's mostly media hype. Sometimes I think they're nothing more than overpaid gov't lackeys who take things like the Swine flu and scare the shit out of the American public with it so we go running to our gov't for help.

That's not to say the Swine flu isn't something to worry about, but if we spent all our time worrying about things that could potentially kill us, nobody would ever leave their house.

Enough with the politics already. I hate closing threads. From the Pontiac thread:

Not political ....

It exists in the swine population in the "Good Ol' USA". We're just more careful about controlling it and it's a constant problem.

Google it and read about it.

Bird flu, swine flu .... wonder what animal will cause a panic next?

Exactly. We have no idea at this point if Tamaflu which is held in reserve for such situations and has been released to immunize people will be effective. And, if it is effective we don't know how quickly the virus will evolve. It might not be effective as soon as next week.

As of this morning, there were 168 deaths in Mexico. Imagine for a moment if more people in Mexico had the flu - right now it is concentrated in an area of Mexico, the more people who have it - means more people to spread it. If millions of people had it instead of thousands the death toll would be in the thousands instead of hundreds. Just keep multiplying and you see the picture. We are a much more mobile world society than previous epidemic/pandemic threats. All it takes is a workoholic Mexican business man with the early stages of the swine flu to fly to Des Moines and this will become a lot more personal and important.

I would take this seriously if I were you guys... It is not like CDC to say a pandemic is likely and will happen soon. They usually respond with much lighter footsteps.

squirrels.

k

Uh oh .... NARM is in deep shit now.

My Dad is a retired Veterinarian. When I was a kid, he was part owner of a commercial hog farm. As the owner and the vet, he treated all of the sick livestock. He brought home the swine flu all the time. My mother was telling me earlier this week that us kids got sick with the swine flu so often that my dad started taking a shower and changing his clothes before he came home from work. I'm still alive, mostly. I'm not too worried. <You must imagine a pig instead of a sheep.

A friend of mine was freaking out over this yesterday and I fired off a list of more realistic things to be concerned about for grins. Like car accidents. At the moment, it's statistically insignificant, though as was mentioned it can become a significant threat. We're due for a worldwide epidemic (unless you count AIDs) but so far, the Bird flu failed, SARS failed, West Nile failed, African Killer Bees failed. I think we'll continue to kill ourselves as efficiently as we have before, though we may spend more money on the way. (Not referencing any political agenda, but people in fear tend to spend money to keep from getting sick, even if it's nothing helpful)

I myself though am frightened to death of the upcoming fish influenza that was predicted by Nostradamus.

Ah, I guess it is time to re-read Steven King's "The Stand"...

Don't Panic..............yet
peanuts.....cracker jacks!

Not in Spokane WA ........ THERE BLOW`N THEM ALL UP

ah yes...captian trips I'm pretty sure there's a user on the site with that name.

I sneezed in an office, and the lady sprayed lysol everywhere and gave my antibacterial hand stuff...


people are really worried

Hopefully, and I do mean hopefully, that common sense will rule the day. It has already been stated that influenza is related to around 20 to 35 thousand deaths a year. The preventive measures that one uses every flu season will work here. Hygine and covering your mouth when you sneeze or cough will save a lot of headache.

Our fire department is already responding to the easily scared reporting parties that claim 'flu-like symptoms'. Heck, my seasonal allergies can make me feel like I have the flu without my meds.

Now that the sun has come out in the PNW, I think a lot more preventative sick days will slip into the mix. Here I come!

Stay safe and kill all those germs with beer!

Nate

The real cause.....
Click to view attachment

I hear you!! sniff... sniff

Kill the Swine!!!!!

yea... allergies here too


people are freaking out too

Hard to tell if the media is exagerating or downplaying the swine flu.

But check out Google to see for yourself how it's spreading. Go to google maps, search 'swine flu', then click on the link that says "2009 Swine Flu (H1N1) Outbreak Map‎". Pretty interesting to see it in perspective on a 'situation' type map. It opened my eyes to see it displayed that way... rather than just headlines in the news.

But those are reported cases and NOT fatalities!

How do you think that map would look like if it was showing everybody in the world that has the common flu right now?
Andy

H1N1 is one of the expected strains this year. If you got the flu shot this year or late last year it was for the H1N1 strain. The problem is that virus and bacteria as well, evolve quickly. We have 35 confirmed cases at the Catholic School 4 blocks away and the school has been shut down till next week.

You must have not seen the fatalities. They are all listed there- as the black markers.

I agree... if this swine flu stays pretty much non lethal, then it's no big deal. But if the mortality rate that Mexico is experiencing becomes the norm.. then it's a whole nuther ball game. If you think it's a conspiracy... than what's the plot? Soap companies want to sell more soap? Car rental companies want to win over bus riders? Mask makers want to raise prices from 5 cents to 10 cents? I would suggest reading up on the Spanish Flu of 1918. 50 million did die. At this point, consensus is that this flu will become level 6 and spread everywhere. The question is, is it going to be lethal or benign?

Where did i say anything about conspiracy?

130 people dead in a week does not make a pandemic. I'm sorry, but that's just nuts.
Andy

Ah, I just sneezed. I think I got swine flu

Swine flu in its current form is not as much of a concern as the potential mutation that could arise from it. Swine = H1N1, the bad one that killed everyone back in the early 1900s was H5N1. The letters and numbers have to do with the construction of the virus. Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) is not a cure, it is in a class of antivirals called neuraminidase inhibitors that are specific to influenza A and B and stops the virus from being able to spread in the host. Here is some good info on it - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oseltamivir

The regular flu that comes from Asia every year kills 36,000 every year. Avian flu killed 700 and change. It is just that the more times the flu spreads, and the longer it lives, and the more species it crosses over (virulence) the more chance it has to mutate and spread. Thats the quick and dirty.

It is a conspiracy, 3m has to make up for losses in blue tape sales by boosting surgical face mask sales.

"Agreed and isnt it the ability of emerging flu strains to mutate into real killers that has most healthcare professionals nervous? I know in talking to my MD freinds its a case that this flu strain could die out or turn into something that kills tens of thousands to millions."


Grantfos got it. The viruses typically have a cycle of six to eight weeks. So think of outbreaks as a series of waves. The waves might not be as pronounced as they have been in the past because of how much mobility exists in the world. Nonetheless, as each cycle comes and goes, the potential for a subsequent wave to mutate and become a killer remains. That is also the challenge when developing a potential vaccine. You don't want to put the vaccine out in the environment to far ahead of the virus because the potential for the virus to mutate and become resistant to the vaccine. So it is a catch-22. Typically the flu does attack and become a killer to populations at the extremes; young, old or those with underlying health issues. The concerns with pandemics is that it is the "normally healthy" 20-40 population who are susceptable, due to their healthy immune systems repeated attempts to fight off infection, actually contributing to the problem. That is when the mega-die offs occur.
At this time this strain of flu is impacting the margins as most flus do. There is a lot of hype because it has been a long time since a global outbreak of a flu strain has occured. The CDC's measured response thus far, and good personal hygiene are the best course, especially hand washing. Just be cautious and minimize shaking hands or using your hand to cover your mouth when sneezing or coughing, use your elbow. I am not a doctor nor do I play one on TV. Just trying to bring a little common sense to the discussion.

Governments get to spread Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, closing borders and restricting travel and imposing restrictions on everyday 'freedoms.'

Mind you, I'm not saying this.
I'm answering your question.

Another step closer to the One World Authority.

Well fear is the best tool for increasing the size of the government.

Thus far in the US, the H1N1 strain seems to be relatively mild. I'm not a big conspiracy theory fan, but when was the last time you heard the WHO (World Health Org) was really relevant?

Have we over-reacted? Probably. If this were a true pandemic, we should have seen in excess of 10,000 cases from the vectoring of a virus with a 24 hour gestation period. But on the other side of the argument, if what we were hearing from Mexico was correct, we would be in deep sh*t by now, so due dilligence from our government was appropriate.

If it seems mild and doesn't hit you or your family, give thanks and go for a drive.

Eric